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People Exposed to Climate Change: March-May 2024
Between March and May 2024, global temperature records were broken for three consecutive months. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the analysis found that approximately one in four people worldwide experienced temperatures at least three times more likely due to climate change (CSI level 3+) daily. Exposure peaked on April 6, 2024, with 2.7 billion people affected. The most severe impacts were concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, and South America, with 44% of Africa's population experiencing the most extreme attributable heat (CSI level 5 for 60+ days). The report also highlights a strong regional contrast in the U.S., where coastal areas and islands showed higher CSI signals despite lower temperature anomalies compared to the Upper Midwest.
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Document type: Report
Climate change made the floods in southern Brazil twice as likely
The study finds that human-induced climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, made the extreme rainfall events in Rio Grande do Sul more than twice as likely and increased their intensity by 6-9%. The El Niño Southern Oscillation also played a significant role, increasing the likelihood of such events by a factor of 2-5. The floods affected over 90% of the state, causing 169 deaths and displacing over 580,000 people, with impacts exacerbated by poverty, failing flood protection infrastructure in Porto Alegre, and inconsistent enforcement of environmental protection laws.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate change made the deadly heatwaves that hit millions of highly vulnerable people across Asia more frequent and extreme
A World Weather Attribution study found that human-induced climate change significantly increased the frequency and intensity of April 2024 heatwaves across Asia. In the Philippines, the event would have been "impossible" without climate change, while in West Asia, the probability increased by a factor of 5. In South Asia, extreme temperatures were found to be about 45 times more likely and 0.85ºC hotter. The report highlights disproportionate impacts on vulnerable groups, including 1.7 million displaced people in Gaza and outdoor workers, and notes that existing heat action plans often lack mandatory workplace regulations and retrofitting for informal settlements.
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Document type: Research paper
Tragic Flooding in Brazil; a Wake-Up Call for the World
The document addresses the humanitarian and environmental crisis caused by record-breaking rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, affecting nearly 1.5 million people. It attributes the severity of the disaster to both global greenhouse gas emissions from wealthy nations and domestic failures, including the dismantling of environmental legislation and a lack of integrated disaster management. The author advocates for a transition from 20th-century concrete infrastructure to 21st-century nature-based solutions and integrated urban land use management to enhance climate resilience.
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Document type: Statement
El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries
The analysis concludes that El Niño is a key driver of the 2024 drought in Southern Africa, making such events twice as likely to occur. Conversely, human-induced climate change did not emerge as a significant driver of the low rainfall observed between December and February, with data suggesting that rainfall in this period actually increases as global temperatures rise.
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Document type: Research paper
Extreme Sahel heatwave that hit highly vulnerable population at the end of Ramadan would not have occurred without climate change
A World Weather Attribution analysis concludes that the extreme heatwave affecting the Sahel in early 2024, which coincided with Ramadan and power cuts, would have been impossible without the 1.2°C of global warming caused by human activities. The event was particularly severe in Mali and Burkina Faso, where 5-day maximum temperatures had a return time of 200 years. The study finds that human-induced warming increased 5-day maximum temperatures by 1.5°C in Mali/Burkina Faso and 1.4°C across the wider Sahel, while the current El Niño event contributed only a small amount (approximately 0.2°C). In Bamako, Mali, the Gabriel Touré hospital reported 102 deaths between 1-4 April, significantly exceeding the 130 deaths recorded for the entire month of April 2023.
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Document type: Research paper
Seasonal Attribution Report
Between December 2023 and February 2024, carbon pollution drove abnormal warmth for approximately 80% of the global population. Roughly 4.8 billion people experienced at least one day of temperatures that would be 'virtually impossible' without climate change. The report highlights extreme temperature anomalies in the U.S. upper Midwest and Canada, as well as high Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels in tropical regions of Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Caribbean. It also documents associated extreme weather events, including record-breaking heat in Australia and deadly floods in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
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Document type: Report
Reducing vulnerability and improved land management needed with increasing heavy rainfall in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines
A study of heavy rainfall in eastern Mindanao (Caraga and Davao regions) between December and February found a strong upward trend in extreme rainfall in observations, though climate models failed to replicate this trend, preventing a quantified attribution to human-induced climate change. The analysis notes that El Niño typically reduces rainfall in this region during the Northeast monsoon, suggesting rainfall could have been more extreme without it. High vulnerability to flooding is attributed to poverty, protracted conflict, deforestation, urban wetland loss, and stalled disaster risk management policies, including the failure of automated sensors since 2022.
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Document type: Research paper
Coldest Days Warming Up
Since 1970, the coldest day of the year has warmed by an average of 7°F across 242 U.S. locations, with 97% of locations seeing a rise of at least 1°F. Winter cold snaps have also become shorter, decreasing by an average of six days in 97% of 244 analyzed locations. The most significant warming of coldest days occurred in the Ohio Valley (8.7°F) and Northwest (8.4°F) regions, with the highest individual increases recorded in Boise, Idaho (15.7°F) and Las Vegas, Nevada (14.3°F). These trends contribute to longer allergy and growing seasons, disrupted crop chill requirements, and altered water supplies.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Analysis: Climate change drove Canada’s warm December
Analysis by Climate Central indicates that human-caused climate change made the record-breaking warmth in Canada during December 2023 significantly more likely. While El Niño contributed to milder conditions, the report argues it was insufficient on its own to produce the observed records. The warmth led to delayed ice road openings in the North and disrupted winter sports and skating in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.
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Document type: Report
2023: 5th-Hottest U.S. Year with Record Billion-Dollar Disasters
In 2023, the contiguous U.S. experienced its 5th-hottest year on record, with an annual average temperature 2.4°F above the 20th century average. The year saw a record 28 billion-dollar disasters, resulting in an estimated 492 lives lost and over $93 billion in damages. Severe storms were the primary driver, accounting for 68% of these events. The frequency of such disasters has increased significantly, with the average time between events dropping to 12 days in 2023, compared to 82 days in the 1980s.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Sustainable Agriculture MARKET INTELLIGENCE REPORT 2024
The 2024 Sustainable Agriculture Market Intelligence Report highlights key investment opportunities for the South African agricultural sector to mitigate risks from loadshedding, climate change, and international trade policies. Primary opportunities include solar PV and solar thermal applications, the electrification of machinery (such as electric tractors), and smart farming tools like remote sensing and AI diagnostics. The report emphasizes the Western Cape's role as a green economy hub and provides a comprehensive overview of the climate finance landscape and regulatory frameworks, including the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which may influence future agricultural exports.
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Document type: Report
2023 Winter Package
Climate Central's analysis of U.S. locations from 1970 to 2022 shows that winter is the fastest-warming season for 74% of analyzed sites, with average winter temperatures increasing in 97% of locations. This warming is characterized by more warmer-than-normal days, fewer freezing nights, and shrinking cold snaps, particularly in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. These trends affect critical sectors including the $27 billion fruit and nut industry, western water supplies, and residential energy use.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The hottest 12-month stretch in recorded history
The period from November 2022 to October 2023 was the hottest 12-month stretch in recorded history, with a global average temperature 1.32°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), Climate Central found that 90% of the global population (7.3 billion people) experienced at least 10 days of temperatures very strongly affected by climate change (CSI level 3 or higher). Approximately 1.9 billion people (24%) experienced a five-day heat wave strongly influenced by carbon pollution (CSI level 2 or higher). The report highlights an inequitable distribution of impacts, with small island developing states and least developed countries facing higher exposure, although heat waves also occurred in G20 nations. The analysis also links human-induced climate change to severe weather events, including deadly flooding in Africa and Libya, and record-breaking wildfires in Canada and Hawaii.
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Document type: Report
Rising Seas, Flooding Coasts
The document reports that the annual frequency of high tide flooding in the U.S. has more than doubled since 2000 and is projected to more than triple again by 2050. This trend is driven by global sea level rise caused by ocean warming and melting ice, with U.S. coasts expected to see as much rise in the next 30 years (10-12 inches) as they did in the last 100 years. High tide flooding, which occurs when water levels exceed 1-2 feet above the daily average high tide, disrupts infrastructure, ecosystems, and supply chains, particularly affecting the Northeast, Southeast, and Gulf Coasts.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Record Ocean Heat Impacts: From Hurricanes to Corals
Global sea surface temperatures reached unprecedented levels from April to July 2023, driven primarily by human-caused carbon pollution and El Niño. This warming increases the likelihood of rapid intensification in hurricanes and causes severe heat stress for coral reefs, particularly around Florida and the Caribbean. The document highlights that 48% of the global ocean experienced marine heat waves in July 2023, and warns that 70–90% of tropical coral reefs could disappear even if warming is limited to 1.5°C.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Worldwide daily fingerprints of climate change during Earth’s hottest month
The analysis finds that July 2023 was likely Earth's hottest month on record, with human-caused climate change making extreme heat significantly more likely for a vast majority of the global population. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the report demonstrates that 81% of people experienced at least one day where temperatures were at least three times more likely due to climate change. The strongest signals were observed in tropical regions and small island developing states, where conditions were often five times more likely due to human influence. The report highlights specific record-breaking temperatures in Africa, Asia, Europe, and North America, emphasizing that such extremes will increase in frequency as long as fossil fuel combustion continues.
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Document type: Report
More risky heat days in 232 US locations
Climate Central analyzed 247 U.S. locations from 1970 to 2022, finding that 232 locations experienced an increase in annual 'risky heat days'—days where temperatures exceed the local minimum mortality temperature (MMT). On average, these locations saw an increase of 21 such days per year. While increases occurred in every U.S. region, the South and Southeast were hotspots, with 91% of the 22 locations seeing the highest increases (40+ days) located there. The analysis emphasizes that extreme heat is the deadliest natural hazard in the U.S. and disproportionately affects vulnerable populations, including children, seniors, and low-income communities of color.
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Document type: Fact sheet
2022 in Review: Global Temperature
Based on NASA and NOAA data, 2022 was the sixth hottest year on record, measuring 2.03°F (1.13°C) warmer than the 1881-1910 baseline. This warming occurred despite the cooling effect of a third consecutive La Niña year. The Arctic continues to warm nearly four times faster than the global average, with the last seven years being the warmest since 1900. The document also notes that renewables are projected to become the largest global electricity source by 2027, with China, the United States, and India expected to drive two-thirds of that growth.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Factors other than climate change are the main drivers of recent food insecurity in southern Madagascar
The study finds that human-induced climate change did not significantly increase the occurrence of the poor rains observed in southern Madagascar between July 2019 and June 2021, as trends remain overwhelmed by natural variability. While the region experienced a 1-in-135 year dry event with only 60% of normal rainfall, the resulting severe food insecurity was driven primarily by high pre-existing vulnerability, poverty, COVID-19 restrictions, and pest infestations rather than climate change.
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Document type: Research paper