El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries

The analysis concludes that El Niño is a key driver of the 2024 drought in Southern Africa, making such events twice as likely to occur. Conversely, human-induced climate change did not emerge as a significant driver of the low rainfall observed between December and February, with data suggesting that rainfall in this period actually increases as global temperatures rise.

• El Niño is a primary driver of the 2024 drought event; while such droughts are expected to occur roughly once per decade in the current climate, they are twice as likely to happen during El Niño years.
• Human-induced climate change was not found to be a significant driver of the 2024 drought in the affected countries. Observation-based data indicates that rainfall during the peak rainy season (December to February) increases as global temperatures rise, meaning such droughts are less likely in the current 1.2ºC warmed climate than in a pre-industrial climate.
• Climate models indicate that further global warming of up to 2ºC will not significantly change the likelihood of the low rainfall observed in the region in early 2024.
• Vulnerability to drought in the region is exacerbated by high deforestation rates, reliance on rain-fed subsistence crop production, and underdeveloped water supply infrastructure, the latter of which has contributed to cholera and other waterborne disease outbreaks in Zambia and Zimbabwe.
• The impact of the drought varies by country based on development and economic structure; for instance, Botswana has experienced fewer impacts because it is more developed and less reliant on rain-fed agriculture than other studied countries.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/el-nino-key-driver-of-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-southern-african-countries/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/el-nino-key-driver-of-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-southern-african-countries/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries |date=18 April 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/el-nino-key-driver-of-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-southern-african-countries/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024nio, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{El Niño key driver of drought in highly vulnerable Southern African countries}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = apr, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/el-nino-key-driver-of-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-southern-african-countries/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }