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The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The document examines how fragile states—characterized by poverty and weak institutions—are prone to recurring armed conflict. It describes a 'conflict trap' where low development leads to war, and war further degrades GDP and public services. The authors argue that the international community can break this cycle during peace settlements by deploying robust peacekeeping operations to solve 'commitment problems' and by ensuring peace agreements are inclusive of women and civil society rather than relying solely on elite bargains.

The document analyzes the 2012 and 2013 riots in Mtwara, Tanzania, arguing that violent mobilization was fueled by 'dashed expectations' and perceptions of unfair treatment by the government. While the Mtwara and Lindi regions have been objectively marginalized since independence, the study finds that the feeling of being 'robbed' and the decision to pipe gas to Dar es Salaam were primary drivers of unrest. The authors suggest that providing basic public goods and realistic information via local radio can mitigate conflict risks in other emerging petro-states in Africa.

The report analyzes the volatility of the South China Sea, focusing on the legal battle between the Philippines and China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration. It explores the strategic rivalry between the US and China, the difficulties of joint resource development, and the potential for ecosystem-based governance. The EU maintains a position of 'principled neutrality,' advocating for UNCLOS and the rule of law to ensure regional stability and freedom of navigation.

The Paris agreement is characterized as a balance between ambitious emission reductions and the principle of differentiation between developed and developing nations. It emphasizes the mobilization of financial resources for decarbonization and creates space for sustainable, people-centered development for the poorest populations.

The document argues that in interconnected societies, security is no longer a state of protection but an emergent process of activity. It posits that resilience has become a way of governing where insecurity is accepted as unavoidable, shifting the focus from predicting risk to developing a 'know-how-to-respond'. The author highlights the role of digital technologies in creating 'interconnection ecosystems' and facilitating self-organization through the 'crowd', while distinguishing between resilience as a general principle and resilience as a prescriptive program of control.

The report argues that migration is driven by a complex chain of mechanisms—including aspirations and infrastructure—rather than simple 'root causes' like poverty. It finds that economic development often increases migration in the short term (the 'migration hump') and that poverty eradication has had marginal impact on reducing migration. The authors caution that reorienting humanitarian and development aid to meet migration-control objectives may reduce the primary effectiveness of those policies and risk serving donor self-interest over beneficiary needs.

The document analyzes the rise of nonviolent resistance globally, noting that while it has historically outperformed violent resistance in achieving major political change, its effectiveness has declined since 2010. It argues that authoritarian regimes may be more fragile than they appear and suggests that non-traditional international support is more influential than direct state assistance for these movements.

The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.

The document provides a structured review of literature concerning the gendered aspects of DDR. It highlights a systemic tendency to view women primarily as victims or 'camp followers' rather than active combatants, which leads to their exclusion from DDR benefits. It also examines how hegemonic masculinity drives violence and how the lack of gender-sensitive planning in post-conflict settings—such as in Aceh or Sierra Leone—marginalizes female ex-fighters. Conversely, it notes more inclusive patterns in Latin American peace processes, such as those in Colombia and El Salvador.

The document argues that Haiti's food insecurity is not merely a result of natural disasters like Hurricane Matthew or the 2010 earthquake, but is rooted in human policies. Specifically, it identifies structural adjustment and trade liberalization in the 1980s and 1990s—driven by the World Bank, IMF, and USAID—as catalysts that decimated local rice production in favor of cheap U.S. imports. This shift led to rural-urban migration, increased poverty, and a dependency on imports that leaves the population vulnerable. The author calls for a shift from short-term humanitarian aid to long-term investment in Haitian agriculture and the restoration of protective tariffs.

The document examines the women's empowerment agenda in Somalia, contrasting the global Women, Peace and Security (WPS) framework with local historical and social contexts. It highlights the 'state feminism' of the Siyad Barre era (1969-1991), the disruptions caused by the civil war, and the influence of the Somali diaspora. The authors argue that international efforts focusing primarily on political quotas may overlook the substantive civic and informal leadership roles Somali women hold, potentially delegitimizing the agenda by appearing incompatible with local norms.

The health care system in Somaliland is characterized by chronic underfunding, significant regional disparities, and a proliferation of unregulated private providers. While international aid and diaspora remittances provide critical resources, they often lack local sustainability and can exacerbate regional inequalities. The document highlights the Hargeisa Group Hospital (HGH) as a successful example of a Regional Health Board and cost-sharing system, though it notes that true community ownership and accountability mechanisms remain underdeveloped.

The document examines the transition of women's roles in Manipur from the monarchical era to the present day under Indian governance. It highlights a historical tradition of high social status and political agency, exemplified by the Nupi Keithel market and the Nupi Lal uprisings, which contrasts with contemporary barriers to electoral politics. The author argues that while women are largely excluded from formal political decision-making, they remain powerful agents of peace and human rights through civil society organizations, such as the Meira Paibis and EEVFAM, particularly in protesting atrocities committed under the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).

The authors contrast the 'abuse of memory'—where past injustices are manipulated to legitimize violence—with an 'anamnetic' approach that uses personal and collective memory to find common human ground. Drawing on Paul Ricoeur, they argue that memory carries a 'duty of justice' toward others, particularly victims. To provide a practical alternative to divisive memory, the authors analyze the works of Augustine, Dante, and Petrarch, arguing that these thinkers view memory as a path from particular, personal experience toward universal truths and divine love. The paper concludes that while ideological memory separates, a conscious 'work of memory' can facilitate dialogue and reconciliation by recognizing shared human patterns of existence.

The document examines India's urban transition, noting that while urban population growth now exceeds rural growth, cities often replicate rural social inequalities. It highlights the systemic exclusion of Muslims, Dalits, and low-income migrants in cities like Varanasi, Ahmedabad, and Pune, where segregated colonies and unplanned slums persist. The authors argue that India's urban governance is hindered by a weak mayoral system, where mayors of major cities lack authority over critical functions, finance, and staffing. The brief advocates for a 'seismic shift' toward inclusive urban planning and an empowered mayoral system to improve municipal accountability and social cohesion.

The document argues that protecting minority rights is a prerequisite for lasting stability and a key element of a security-oriented foreign policy. It examines various power-sharing models—inclusion, portioning, and restrictions—concluding that rights-based restrictions on power are most effective for long-term peace. Case studies on Iraq, Syria, and Myanmar illustrate how the lack of minority protections can exacerbate conflict dynamics and how democratic transitions via majority-rule elections can paradoxically increase the vulnerability of minorities, such as the Rohingya.

The study explores 'practiced citizenship' among Polish migrants in Oslo, Bergen, Bristol, and Sheffield, arguing that integration is a multi-layered process of 'balancing acts' between local, national, and transnational dimensions. While both countries show similar reliance on social networks for migration, the UK is perceived as more accommodating of socio-cultural diversity, whereas Polish migrants in Norway reported exclusionary experiences related to their names and a lack of trust in state institutions, specifically the child protection services. Socio-economic patterns differ by demographic, with the UK attracting more young, highly educated graduates and Norway seeing a higher proportion of skilled male construction workers. Political engagement is frequently mediated through online platforms, particularly in the UK, where some migrants view the political environment as more enabling than in Poland.

A survey of approximately 1,200 women in eastern DRC indicates that survivors of sexual violence feel less socially included than non-survivors. While support programs like USHINDI and Dorcas Rural significantly improve perceived economic wellbeing—particularly for survivors—their positive effect on social inclusion is not stronger for survivors than for non-survivors, suggesting a need for community-focused interventions.

The document examines the socio-economic and environmental dynamics in Barcarena, Pará, focusing on the role of extractive industries like Norsk Hydro. It highlights a significant power imbalance between industry/government and civil society, alongside widespread public distrust in local governance. The brief recommends strengthening the Intersectoral Dialogue Forum (IDF) by improving government transparency, requiring companies to set tangible community goals, and empowering civil society to ensure equitable sustainable development.