Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania

The document analyzes the 2012 and 2013 riots in Mtwara, Tanzania, arguing that violent mobilization was fueled by 'dashed expectations' and perceptions of unfair treatment by the government. While the Mtwara and Lindi regions have been objectively marginalized since independence, the study finds that the feeling of being 'robbed' and the decision to pipe gas to Dar es Salaam were primary drivers of unrest. The authors suggest that providing basic public goods and realistic information via local radio can mitigate conflict risks in other emerging petro-states in Africa.

• Violent mobilization in southern Tanzania was driven by subjective perceptions of unfairness and inequality rather than objective economic disparities. While Mtwara and Lindi are objectively marginalized compared to the national average, only 46% of Mtwara and 71% of Lindi residents perceive their region as economically worse off than others.
• The perception of being treated unfairly by the government is a significant predictor of participation in civil unrest. This feeling of injustice is specifically linked to a sense of being 'robbed' and issues regarding land rights, where the government is perceived to have 'grabbed' land without proper payment.
• The 2012 and 2013 riots in Mtwara were triggered by 'dashed expectations' following government promises of local development. A major point of contention was the construction of a 532-kilometre pipeline to transport natural gas to Dar es Salaam, which contradicted local expectations that the gas would support local industries.
• There is a significant gap between local expectations and the reality of petroleum production timelines. While production for main discoveries is at least seven years away, 22% of survey respondents expected living condition improvements in 2015 or 2016, and 25% expected them within two to five years.
• Local demands for development are modest and focused on basic public goods. The highest priorities for government action include access to water, health care, roads, electricity, and education, as well as local employment and inclusion in decision-making.
• The findings from Tanzania are applicable to other emerging petroleum-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa where high-value resources are found in remote areas inhabited by marginalized groups, specifically mentioning Uganda, Mozambique, Kenya, and Ghana.

APA

Must, E., & Rustad, S. A. (2016). Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/078a6a31-1f53-494d-9094-70e4d3cfe698/Must Rustad - Perceptions of Justice and Violent Conflict Trends 6-2016.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Must, Elise, and Siri Aas Rustad. Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2016. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/078a6a31-1f53-494d-9094-70e4d3cfe698/Must Rustad - Perceptions of Justice and Violent Conflict Trends 6-2016.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Must |first1=Elise |last2=Rustad |first2=Siri Aas |title=Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=June 2016 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/078a6a31-1f53-494d-9094-70e4d3cfe698/Must Rustad - Perceptions of Justice and Violent Conflict Trends 6-2016.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{must2016perceptions, author = {Must, Elise and Rustad, Siri Aas}, title = {{Perceptions of Justice and Violent Mobilization: Explaining Petroleum Related Riots in Southern Tanzania}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/078a6a31-1f53-494d-9094-70e4d3cfe698/Must Rustad - Perceptions of Justice and Violent Conflict Trends 6-2016.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }