Root causes and drivers of migration

The report argues that migration is driven by a complex chain of mechanisms—including aspirations and infrastructure—rather than simple 'root causes' like poverty. It finds that economic development often increases migration in the short term (the 'migration hump') and that poverty eradication has had marginal impact on reducing migration. The authors caution that reorienting humanitarian and development aid to meet migration-control objectives may reduce the primary effectiveness of those policies and risk serving donor self-interest over beneficiary needs.

• Global migration levels have remained relatively stable as a percentage of the world population over the long term, despite perceived surges. The migrant stock was 3.3 per cent of the world population in 2015, compared to 3.1 per cent in 1960.
• Migration is the result of a multi-step process: first, the formation of migration aspirations based on conditions, prospects, and life aspirations; and second, the ability to realize those aspirations through 'migration infrastructure' (commercial, regulatory, technological, humanitarian, and social elements).
• There is a significant gap between the desire to migrate and actual migration. For example, in West Africa, 39 per cent of the population express migration aspirations, but only 5 per cent plan to move within 12 months and 2 per cent have started preparations.
• According to the migration transition model, economic development typically increases migration rates until a country reaches an upper-middle income level (approximately PPP$ 7,000–8,000). This creates a 'migration hump' where successful development policy may increase emigration in the short to medium term.
• Poverty eradication policies have had little success in reducing international or rural-urban migration, as poverty reduction can actually fuel migration aspirations by increasing the capacity to move.
• Information and awareness campaigns designed to deter irregular migration are generally ineffective because prospective migrants often discredit the information as biased or irrelevant to their specific circumstances.
• The 'Return to Agriculture' (REVA) project in Senegal, funded by Spain to reduce migration aspirations by promoting modern agriculture, is considered a failure because it failed to create attractive alternatives for youth and lacked sufficient resources for industrial transformation.
• The EU's Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (ETFA) is criticized for lacking clearly defined goals, overlapping with other programs, and potentially prioritizing the EU's migration agenda over the needs of the least developed countries.
• Reorienting humanitarian and development aid to meet migration-control objectives risks reducing the 'primary effectiveness' of those policies (e.g., saving lives or reducing poverty) and may lead to an unethical redistribution of aid based on donor self-interest rather than beneficiary need.

APA

Carling, J., & Talleraas, C. (2016). Root causes and drivers of migration. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3fceb4e1-b5af-4294-b99c-5e75b6f2935b/Carling and Talleraas 2016 Root causes and drivers of migration PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Carling, Jørgen, and Cathrine Talleraas. Root causes and drivers of migration. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2016. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3fceb4e1-b5af-4294-b99c-5e75b6f2935b/Carling and Talleraas 2016 Root causes and drivers of migration PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Carling |first1=Jørgen |last2=Talleraas |first2=Cathrine |title=Root causes and drivers of migration |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2016 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3fceb4e1-b5af-4294-b99c-5e75b6f2935b/Carling and Talleraas 2016 Root causes and drivers of migration PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carling2016root, author = {Carling, Jørgen and Talleraas, Cathrine}, title = {{Root causes and drivers of migration}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2016}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/3fceb4e1-b5af-4294-b99c-5e75b6f2935b/Carling and Talleraas 2016 Root causes and drivers of migration PRIO Paper.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }