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The document analyzes the transitions from peacekeeping to peacebuilding in Liberia and Sierra Leone, arguing that while both countries have shown resilience, UN transitions often fail to address the root causes of conflict. It highlights the importance of local ownership, the role of regional organizations like ECOWAS, and the need for sustained capacity building for civil society and governance reforms to ensure long-term stability.

The document examines the pervasive impact of corruption on African youth, who are identified as both primary victims and increasingly as perpetrators. It highlights how corruption fuels instability, conflict, and migration, while arguing that current youth engagement in anti-corruption efforts is superficial. The brief recommends structural changes, including amending the AU Advisory Board on Corruption's membership and implementing access to information laws, to ensure youth are active partners in designing and driving anti-corruption initiatives.

The document argues that the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) provides a framework to counter biased narratives that depict African migration as primarily a crisis of people fleeing to Europe, whereas over 80% of African migration is intra-continental. It emphasizes the need for integrated data systems to inform policy, though it notes challenges such as differing legal systems and the sensitivity of security data. The author recommends that African states develop national implementation roadmaps using a 'whole-of-government' approach, citing Kenya's National Coordination Mechanism as a best practice.

Ethiopia is piloting the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) to move away from a camp-based refugee model toward socio-economic integration. While the reform promises expanded access to work permits, education, and civil documentation, it faces significant hurdles including low industrial wages, coordination gaps between government agencies, and ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella. The document recommends a conflict-sensitive approach, a national minimum wage, and increased start-up capital for refugee entrepreneurs to ensure sustainable self-reliance.

The document examines the systemic failures of the South African criminal justice system through the lens of decolonisation. It argues that current bail practices—specifically the insistence on verified addresses and cash payments—effectively criminalise poverty and maintain colonial-era structures of domination. The report also documents severe human rights violations at the Lindela Repatriation Centre, where undocumented migrants are treated as 'bare life' in a 'state of exception'. Through interviews and legal analysis, the text highlights a gap between constitutional ideals and the lived experiences of activists and migrants, suggesting that true decolonisation requires a fundamental rethinking of the purpose of prisons rather than mere institutional reform.

The report analyzes the aftermath of the ANC's 54th national conference, where Cyril Ramaphosa narrowly defeated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. It argues that while Ramaphosa's victory averted a major crisis, the party remains deeply divided between 'reformists' and 'traditionalists,' placing South Africa in a 'muddling along' scenario. Key challenges include the potential recall of Jacob Zuma, avoiding a credit rating downgrade by Moody's, and managing the Tripartite Alliance. The author predicts the ANC will retain national power in 2019 but may lose its majority in Gauteng province, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) emerging as a potential kingmaker there.

The document assesses the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau following the failure to implement the Conakry Agreement. It argues that the appointment of Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló, contrary to the agreement, has aggravated tensions and created a stalemate in the National Assembly. The authors contend that organizing the 2018 legislative elections without resolving this crisis is risky, as it could further polarize the political class and lead to contested results. They recommend a new round of inclusive consultations led by a firm ECOWAS, the establishment of a technocratic government, and the implementation of constitutional and electoral reforms before any elections take place.

The report analyzes the longevity of President Idriss Déby's regime in Chad, highlighting his use of 'armed diplomacy' and military interventions in Mali, CAR, and against Boko Haram to secure international political capital and support from France and the US. It details a domestic system based on ethnic patronage, rigged elections, and repression, while warning that the lack of a clear succession plan, combined with a severe economic crisis driven by falling oil prices and corruption, threatens future stability.

The report analyzes the ramifications of the EU's January 2016 decision to reduce AMISOM peacekeeper allowances by 20%, from US$1,028 to US$822 per month. This move triggered a rift between the African Union (AU), troop-contributing countries (TCCs), and donors, while accelerating the development of a concrete exit strategy for the mission. The EU's decision was driven by donor fatigue, shifting priorities toward the Sahel region, and internal regulations regarding the use of the African Peace Facility. TCCs, particularly Uganda and Kenya, initially threatened withdrawal, though national security interests and the desire for regional stability largely prevailed. The report highlights a critical gap between donor expectations for AMISOM to 'do more' against al-Shabaab and the TCCs' claims of severe under-resourcing and a lack of local Somali security capacity to hold liberated territory.

The report argues that the decline in migrant arrivals from Libya in late 2017 resulted from the co-option of smuggling militias by international donors, primarily Italy. This 'anti-smuggling business' allows militia leaders to launder their reputations to avoid international sanctions and position themselves for a future political settlement. However, the authors contend that this strategy creates instability, as seen in the violent conflict in Sabratha, and risks worsening the abuse of migrants. The report advocates for a 'stability first' approach focused on genuine disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) rather than indiscriminate partnerships with armed groups.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) use of mediation as a conflict-prevention tool. It analyzes the institutional gaps, the tension between formal and informal approaches, and the need for a more structured, long-term strategy to address the root causes of conflict in Africa.

The report examines the 'gathering storm clouds' of political and economic uncertainty in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It argues that a combination of commodity price collapses, neo-patrimonial governance, and rapid population growth is creating a volatile environment. The analysis highlights a critical gap between population growth and the provision of basic services, alongside a history of 'pseudo-democratic' regimes that resist genuine political transition. The authors warn that without strategic diversification of economies and significant investment in human capital, the region's large youth population could become a catalyst for further instability and violence.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyses the 2013 Zimbabwean general election to challenge the 'legitimating narrative' that President Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF won due to an expanded social base and popular policies. The author argues that the victory was instead secured through the capture of state institutions, systemic electoral fraud, and the use of violence and intimidation, suggesting that the electoral terrain for the 2018 polls remains fundamentally undemocratic.

The report finds that while Kenyan women are rarely direct perpetrators of violent acts, they provide critical 'invisible infrastructure' for al-Shabaab through recruiting, intelligence gathering, and logistics. Involvement is driven by a complex interplay of poverty, socio-political marginalisation, and personal relationships. The study highlights severe impacts on women, including sexual violence in camps and psychological trauma from terror attacks and heavy-handed counter-terrorism (CT) operations. Current P/CVE responses are criticised for being gender-neutral and overly securitised, leading to mistrust between the state and affected communities.

Nigeria faces a severe deficit in basic physical infrastructure, particularly in sanitation, water, electricity, and roads, which hinders economic growth and human development. Benchmarked against lower middle-income peers, Nigeria lags significantly, and current trajectories suggest it will miss several Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. The report models several interventions, finding that increasing access to improved sanitation and clean water provides the highest returns for poverty reduction and health outcomes. However, achieving these targets requires overcoming significant challenges in government capacity, funding, and a heavy reliance on oil revenues.

The report argues that sub-Saharan Africa's inability to reduce poverty is rooted in rapid population growth and high demographic dependency ratios. While aid has provided modest positive impacts on growth and significant improvements in health and education indicators, it remains palliative unless it can sustain inclusive economic growth. The author presents three aid scenarios to 2030 (Current Path, More Aid, and Less Aid) and a fourth scenario focusing on reduced fertility. The analysis concludes that matching Ethiopia's fertility decline would have a significantly more positive impact on poverty rates by 2030 and 2040 than a substantial increase in aid.

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.

The report argues that limiting free expression and expanding surveillance to combat terrorism is counterproductive, as it erodes democratic values and may exacerbate radicalisation. While traditional media can spread fear through sensationalism, it rarely confers legitimacy on extremist ideologies. Similarly, while the internet facilitates the reinforcement of extremist views, it is not the primary source of radicalisation. The author recommends international norms for internet governance, stricter oversight of surveillance tools, and a shift toward addressing the underlying drivers of extremism.

The report contends that securitised counter-terrorism efforts often violate human rights, perpetuating cycles of violence. It advocates for a shift toward criminal justice frameworks rooted in democratic values, emphasizing that functionality and accountability must be developed in tandem to avoid increasing risks to rights. The author calls for evidence-based methodologies, the meaningful inclusion of civil society in policymaking, and caution regarding 'Preventing Violent Extremism' (PVE) initiatives that may criminalise lawful behavior or ignore structural governance issues.

The report argues that discriminatory state practices, often driven by a focus on state security over human security, are counterproductive to countering violent extremism. It examines how 'othering' specific religious or ethnic groups—particularly Muslims and certain African ethnic communities—creates grievances that extremist groups exploit for recruitment. The authors advocate for a 'whole of society' approach that prioritises the rule of law, human rights, and socio-economic drivers over identity-based risk assessments.