Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political deadlock in Guinea-Bissau as of December 2017. It argues that holding legislative elections without first resolving the institutional crisis and implementing constitutional reforms is unlikely to provide a lasting solution and may instead exacerbate political polarization.

• The political stalemate in Guinea-Bissau persists despite a three-month deadline set by ECOWAS at the June 2017 Monrovia Summit to implement the Conakry Agreement. The primary cause of this deadlock is the appointment of Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló instead of Augusto Olivais, which contradicted the agreement.
• Holding the 2018 legislative elections without resolving the underlying political crisis is viewed as risky. While elections could theoretically create a parliamentary majority and a legitimate government, in practice, they may further divide a polarized political class and lead to contested results.
• The Collective of Democratic Opposition Parties, representing 18 political parties, opposes elections organized by the Sissoco government, which they deem illegitimate. This mistrust is linked to the role of the Ministry of Territorial Administration and its Technical Office for support to the Electoral Process (GTAPE) in managing voter registration.
• The National Electoral Commission (NEC) is vulnerable to the political stalemate because it relies on the National Assembly for its budget and the appointment of its president and executive secretariat members.
• Chronic instability in Guinea-Bissau is attributed to weaknesses in the institutional architecture and vague constitutional provisions regarding the semi-presidential system. There is a broad consensus on the need to revise the constitution and the electoral framework, as suggested by a post-2014 general election NEC report.
• The authors recommend a new round of inclusive and consensual consultations, supported by ECOWAS and the 'P5' (African Union, United Nations, European Union, and Community of Portuguese Language Countries). They suggest establishing a government of competent, apolitical technocrats and potentially coupling legislative and presidential elections in 2019 to allow more time for priority reforms.

APA

Toupane, P. M., & Faye, A. K. (2017). Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau

Chicago

Toupane, Paulin Maurice, and Adja Khadidiatou Faye. Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Toupane |first1=Paulin Maurice |last2=Faye |first2=Adja Khadidiatou |title=Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=13 December 2017 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{toupane2017creating, author = {Toupane, Paulin Maurice and Faye, Adja Khadidiatou}, title = {{Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }