Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau

The document assesses the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau following the failure to implement the Conakry Agreement. It argues that the appointment of Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló, contrary to the agreement, has aggravated tensions and created a stalemate in the National Assembly. The authors contend that organizing the 2018 legislative elections without resolving this crisis is risky, as it could further polarize the political class and lead to contested results. They recommend a new round of inclusive consultations led by a firm ECOWAS, the establishment of a technocratic government, and the implementation of constitutional and electoral reforms before any elections take place.

• The primary obstacle to implementing the Conakry Agreement is the appointment of Prime Minister Umaro Sissoco Embaló instead of Augusto Olivais, a decision that deviated from the agreed terms.
• Holding legislative elections in 2018 before resolving the political crisis is likely to increase political polarization and lead to the contesting of election results.
• The opposition, specifically the Collective of Democratic Opposition Parties of Guinea-Bissau (comprising 18 parties), rejects any elections organized by the Sissoco government, which they view as illegitimate.
• The political stalemate in the National Assembly threatens the National Electoral Commission (NEC) because the NEC relies on the Assembly for its budget and the appointment of its leadership.
• Guinea-Bissau's chronic instability is driven by weaknesses in its institutional architecture, specifically vague constitutional provisions regarding the semi-presidential system.
• There is a broad consensus among political and civil society actors on the need to revise the constitution and the electoral framework, including changes suggested by a post-2014 NEC report.
• The authors propose a transition to a government composed of competent, apolitical technocrats and suggest potentially coupling the legislative and presidential elections in 2019 to allow more time for priority reforms.

APA

Toupane, P. M., & Faye, A. K. (2017). Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau

Chicago

Toupane, Paulin Maurice, and Adja Khadidiatou Faye. Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Toupane |first1=Paulin Maurice |last2=Faye |first2=Adja Khadidiatou |title=Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=13 December 2017 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{toupane2017creating, author = {Toupane, Paulin Maurice and Faye, Adja Khadidiatou}, title = {{Creating conditions conducive to stability in Guinea-Bissau}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/creating-conditions-conducive-to-stability-in-guinea-bissau}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }