DÉBY’S CHAD

The report analyzes the longevity of President Idriss Déby's regime in Chad, highlighting his use of 'armed diplomacy' and military interventions in Mali, CAR, and against Boko Haram to secure international political capital and support from France and the US. It details a domestic system based on ethnic patronage, rigged elections, and repression, while warning that the lack of a clear succession plan, combined with a severe economic crisis driven by falling oil prices and corruption, threatens future stability.

• President Idriss Déby has maintained power for twenty-seven years through a combination of controlling the armed forces, revising the constitution, rigging elections, and using a divide-and-rule strategy to co-opt or repress opponents.
• Chad has utilized 'armed diplomacy,' leveraging its military capabilities in regional interventions to gain global political capital and ensure that international partners overlook its democratic deficiencies.
• The regime relies heavily on ethnic patronage, concentrating political, military, and economic power within the Beri ethnic group, specifically the Bideyat subgroup and the president's own Kolyala clan.
• Chad's economy has been severely destabilized by a collapse in global oil prices, which saw oil revenues decline by 90 percent between 2011 and 2015, exacerbating poverty and triggering social unrest.
• The report identifies a critical risk of instability due to the absence of a formal succession plan for the aging and reportedly ill president, with potential scenarios including a dynasty, a return of exiled rivals, or a southern president.
• Chad's military interventions in the Central African Republic (CAR) have been controversial and destabilizing, involving the support of various rebel factions and allegations of violence against civilians.
• Chad plays a leading role in the Multinational Joint Taskforce (MNJTF) to combat Boko Haram, though the group has responded with retaliatory attacks inside Chad, including suicide bombings in N'Djamena.
• The relationship between Chad and Sudan has shifted from a proxy war (2005-2010) to a sustained rapprochement, where both governments now cooperate to marginalize their respective rebel groups.
• France and the United States prioritize Chad as a counterterrorism partner in the Sahel, often ignoring the regime's human rights abuses to maintain military cooperation.

APA

Tubiana, J., & Debos, M. (2017). DÉBY’S CHAD. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-12-15-peaceworks-chad-brief.pdf

Chicago

Tubiana, Jérôme, and Marielle Debos. DÉBY’S CHAD. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-12-15-peaceworks-chad-brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tubiana |first1=Jérôme |last2=Debos |first2=Marielle |title=DÉBY’S CHAD |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-12-15-peaceworks-chad-brief.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tubiana2017dbys, author = {Tubiana, Jérôme and Debos, Marielle}, title = {{DÉBY’S CHAD}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2017-12-15-peaceworks-chad-brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }