Back to the Future

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyses the 2013 Zimbabwean general election to challenge the 'legitimating narrative' that President Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF won due to an expanded social base and popular policies. The author argues that the victory was instead secured through the capture of state institutions, systemic electoral fraud, and the use of violence and intimidation, suggesting that the electoral terrain for the 2018 polls remains fundamentally undemocratic.

• The report argues that ZANU-PF's electoral victories are not the result of increased popularity but are secured through the 'conflation of party and government' and the subsequent control of all state institutions. This allows the party to abuse state resources, monopolise electronic media, and use the criminal justice system to suppress opposition rallies and intimidate supporters.
• The author challenges the 'legitimating narrative'—promoted by ZANU-PF and some academics—which claims the 2013 landslide victory was due to 'people friendly' policies and an expanded social base. The report asserts this claim lacks empirical backing and serves as a quest for legitimacy ahead of the 2018 elections.
• The 'indigenisation and economic empowerment' policy, used as a central campaign pillar in 2013, is described as a facade. The report claims the government and companies 'pretended' to indigenise, with no tangible benefits for most voters and the policy instead being used for 'racketeering by regulation' and extortion of foreign companies.
• The report disputes the claim that ZANU-PF expanded its support among artisanal gold miners and vendors. It notes that the government previously jailed approximately 25,000 panners and dealers under Operation Chikorokoza Chapera and used the sector for political disciplining and rent-seeking.
• Analysis of opinion polls suggests substantial electoral fraud in 2013. While Afrobarometer data predicted a close race (a 6 percentage point lead for ZANU-PF), the actual result was a massive 27 percentage point lead for Mugabe. The discrepancy was most extreme in Masvingo, where the predicted lead for the MDC-T turned into a 43 percentage point lead for ZANU-PF.
• The report identifies a glaring statistical anomaly: Robert Mugabe obtained approximately 1.03 million more votes in 2013 than in March 2008, while Morgan Tsvangirai's vote remained virtually unchanged. The author argues this increase cannot be explained by new voter registrations alone, as roughly 407,281 votes remain unexplained.
• The report highlights a history of extreme state violence used to maintain control, including the Gukurahundi ethnic cleansing (1983-1987) where an estimated 20,000 civilians were killed, and the 2005 Operation Murambatsvina, which evicted approximately 700,000 people from their homes.
• The author concludes that Zimbabwe is an 'electoral authoritarian regime' where outcomes are predetermined by the capture of state institutions. He predicts that the electoral terrain for 2018 will be little different from 2013 unless there is dramatic institutional reform.

APA

Matyszak, D. (2017). Back to the Future. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar12.pdf

Chicago

Matyszak, Derek. Back to the Future. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar12.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Matyszak |first1=Derek |title=Back to the Future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar12.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{matyszak2017back, author = {Matyszak, Derek}, title = {{Back to the Future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar12.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }