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Back to the Future
This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyses the 2013 Zimbabwean general election to challenge the 'legitimating narrative' that President Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF won due to an expanded social base and popular policies. The author argues that the victory was instead secured through the capture of state institutions, systemic electoral fraud, and the use of violence and intimidation, suggesting that the electoral terrain for the 2018 polls remains fundamentally undemocratic.
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Document type: Report
Plotting the decline of a tyrant - SAIIA
This briefing analyzes the stability of Robert Mugabe's regime in Zimbabwe, evaluating it against four theoretical indicators of tyrannical collapse: fissures in the ruling oligarchy, state crisis, external threats, and internal opposition.
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Document type: Briefing
Zimbabwe’s 2005 Elections: Overture or finale?
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the political landscape surrounding Zimbabwe's March 31, 2005, parliamentary elections. It examines the internal factional struggles within the ruling ZANU-PF party, the challenges facing the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and the role of South Africa's 'quiet diplomacy' in the region.
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Document type: Briefing
ZIMBABWE’S ZEZURU SUM GAME
This research paper analyzes the political crisis in Zimbabwe circa 2005, arguing that the ruling ZANU-PF elite is trapped in an 'insecurity dilemma' driven by the fear of international prosecution for human rights abuses. The author explores how this fear, combined with ethno-linguistic factionalism—specifically the dominance of the Zezuru faction—impedes a peaceful transition to democracy and shapes the party's resistance to power-sharing with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
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Document type: Research paper
chap-8-94c09e4e6733f6fc.pdf
This report chapter examines 'Operation Favour', a Rhodesian counter-insurgency initiative to establish Security Force Auxiliaries (SFAs) as a local self-protection militia. The program aimed to stabilize rural Tribal Trust Lands and secure political support for the Internal Settlement government, though it faced significant challenges including poor training, urban recruitment issues, and political instability.
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Document type: Report
Civil-military relations in Zimbabwe: Is there a threat?
This research paper by Martin R Rupiya analyzes the deterioration of civil-military relations in Zimbabwe between 1980 and 2002. The author argues that the country's security institutions are rooted in a 'liberation movement model' characterized by a fusion of political and military power, which has led to the ruling ZANU (PF) party using coercive military tools to maintain dominance over political opponents and manage state failures.
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Document type: Research paper
4663 ISS Paper 202.indd
This research paper analyzes the history of human rights violations in Zimbabwe, arguing that land disputes and political intolerance are the primary drivers of abuse. It details the transition from colonial racial discrimination to post-colonial state violence, including the Gukurahundi massacres, the violent fast-track land reform programme, and the systematic suppression of political opposition and free speech through draconian legislation. The author concludes that Zimbabwe demonstrates the vulnerability of states in democratic transition to regress into tyranny.
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Document type: Research paper