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The report finds that despite having anti-money laundering laws, Senegal and Sierra Leone struggle to investigate the financial trails of migrant smugglers due to a reliance on cash and informal transfer systems like hawala. Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs) in both countries are underfunded and lack the specialized expertise to implement 'follow the money' strategies. Smugglers frequently integrate illicit gains into the formal economy through real estate, travel agencies, and the hospitality sector. The document recommends prioritizing financial investigations, increasing FIU budgets, and improving inter-agency and international cooperation to disrupt these financial flows.

The report evaluates the AU PSC's efforts to integrate youth into peace processes via the WiseYouth network and argues for a community-centred approach to the Sahel strategy to address inter-communal rivalries. It examines the 24-month transition in Guinea, emphasizing the need for regional ownership and inclusive electoral reforms. Additionally, it analyzes the conflict between the SAF and RSF in Sudan, warning that a lack of regional consensus and a proliferation of parallel peace processes may prolong the crisis. Finally, it outlines Uganda's priorities for the PSC chairship in May 2023, specifically regarding the AU-EU partnership.

The document identifies that while violence prevention interventions in South Africa are effective, scaling them is hindered by limited implementation capacity, a tension between evidence-based fidelity and community responsiveness, and inadequate staff support. It highlights that intensive programmes reach fewer people but are common, while light-touch campaigns have wider reach. Key barriers to success include the difficulty of recruiting fathers, participant attrition due to unemployment, and a lack of technical M&E skills among NGOs. The authors recommend that the government develop flexible monitoring frameworks and conduct a national baseline mapping of community-based interventions to support the National Strategic Plan on Gender-Based Violence and Femicide.

The document examines the tension between Africa's development goals, specifically Agenda 2063, and the risk of high-carbon growth. It argues that while pursuing traditional fossil-fuel-led development would significantly increase carbon emissions, Africa can leverage its vast reserves of critical minerals and renewable energy potential to achieve a low-carbon transition. The authors emphasize that climate change exacerbates existing instabilities and that current global climate finance architectures are inadequate, often treating adaptation as aid or providing loans that increase debt. The brief recommends a multi-actor approach to African agency and a strategic shift to place climate change at the center of all diplomacy and development to avoid the 'resource curse' and ensure equitable wealth redistribution.

The report evaluates the African Union's (AU) first two decades, highlighting a significant gap between the creation of ambitious normative and institutional frameworks and their actual implementation. While the AU has succeeded in establishing a continental legal order and promoting multi-party democracy, it struggles with institutional incapacity, over-reliance on external funding, and a lack of political will among member states to cede sovereignty. Key areas of analysis include the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the role of women and youth in governance. The authors argue that for the AU to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063, it must shift from a state-centric model to a people-driven organization, enhance its self-reliance, and translate its existing norms into tangible outcomes.

The document examines the 'regionalisation' of peacekeeping in Africa, noting that troops from countries bordering crisis zones now constitute a significant portion of UN and AU missions. While these countries possess local knowledge, the authors argue that their involvement often prioritises national interests and 'collective defence'—the alliance against identified enemies—over the 'collective security' goal of addressing root causes. This shift is characterised by extreme militarisation and a lack of political strategy, which the authors suggest erodes the principles of impartiality and neutrality in peacekeeping.

The document examines the nexus between climate change, human mobility, and development in Africa, highlighting that while mobility can be a strategic adaptation tool, current funding and policy frameworks are inadequate. It identifies significant barriers, including a bias toward mitigation over adaptation, a lack of institutional knowledge, and the politicization of migration. The brief recommends that development actors and national governments mainstream climate-linked mobility across sectors and adopt a diverse range of financial instruments to support people who are staying, moving, or on the move.

The document examines the economic and social impacts of climate change in Africa, specifically focusing on forced displacement. It advocates for the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund to include non-economic losses and provide accessible, non-debt financing for displaced persons, women, youth, and pastoralists.

The document argues that while Chinese lending is not the primary cause of Africa's debt distress, specific features of the 'China model'—including lack of transparency, resource-backed loans, and the exclusion of collective restructuring clauses—exacerbate financial vulnerabilities. It highlights how these factors, combined with broader economic shocks, can lead to socio-economic instability, reduced spending on essential services, and increased risks of conflict. The brief recommends enhanced loan transparency, the adoption of legally binding reporting protocols, and improved national debt management to protect human security and development.

The document examines the 'third generation' DDRRR processes used in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria to manage exits from Boko Haram. It argues that effective disengagement requires understanding individual motivations to create tailored incentives, implementing gender-sensitive screening to distinguish between victims and active combatants, and ensuring regional coordination to prevent isolated national approaches. The brief highlights the need for predictable legal frameworks and active community engagement to prevent the perception of blanket amnesties and reduce social tension during reintegration.

The report details a workshop evaluating South Africa's use of the INSPIRE framework to prevent violence against children (VAC). It identifies progress in research and policy, such as the Western Cape government's Safety Plan and the National Strategic Plan on Gender-Based Violence and Femicide. However, it highlights critical gaps, including the lack of a government focal point to maintain 'Pathfinding' momentum and poor coordination between government and NGOs. The document recommends the reappointment of an INSPIRE champion and the adaptation of the INSPIRE Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) to the South African context.

The document outlines a mixed-methods approach to forecasting the impact of COVID-19 in Africa to 2030. It utilizes the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to compare three scenarios against a pre-pandemic baseline, focusing on economic growth, per capita income, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This quantitative analysis was supplemented by qualitative dialogues involving experts and practitioners focusing on 15 representative African countries. The methodology included validation through a project reference group, questionnaires, and presentations to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) and public health experts to synthesize inter-disciplinary perspectives.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) role in supporting security sector reform (SSR) across its member states. It identifies critical gaps in coordination between the AU and other international partners, as well as internal resource constraints, and proposes strategies to enhance political buy-in, civil society engagement, and institutional alignment to ensure SSR processes are sustainable and reflect national priorities.

The report argues that Ethiopia's national dialogue initiative is hindered by a fundamental clash between a 'deliberative' approach favored by the government—which seeks a rational consensus to resolve differences—and the reality of a severely divided society characterized by deep-seated historical injustices. The author contends that the process will only succeed if stakeholders shift toward an 'agonistic' model that focuses on transforming antagonistic relations into adversarial politics and reckoning with the past, rather than attempting to manufacture a final consensus on fundamental national issues.

The document analyzes Ethiopia's struggle with democratization, tracing a cycle of autocratic rule from the imperial era to the present. It argues that the state's historical hegemony, combined with the organizational weakness of social forces, creates a resilient autocracy. While peaceful protests can trigger short-lived liberalizations, they often fail to consolidate democracy because the state can swiftly recuperate power. Conversely, armed insurgency further deepens authoritarianism by destroying material foundations for democracy and creating militaristic rebel groups that transplant autocratic traditions into the state upon victory. The author recommends using a national dialogue to create incentive structures for elites to commit to democratic reforms.

The report examines how the rise of the Indo-Pacific strategic framework and intensifying competition between traditional powers (US, UK, France) and emerging powers (China, India) affect African maritime security and development. It highlights the critical importance of Indian Ocean trade routes, the proliferation of foreign military bases in the region, and the risk of African states being drawn into proxy wars. The author emphasizes that while great power competition is a long-term risk, immediate threats include piracy, illegal fishing, and climate change. The paper recommends that African states and the African Union develop a unified conception of their maritime interests and leverage multilateral organizations to protect their sovereignty and blue economy goals.

Algeria's trade is heavily dominated by hydrocarbons, which accounted for 94% of exports in 2017. The country faces significant obstacles to industrialisation and diversification due to the influence of politically connected importers and a lack of regional economic integration within the Maghreb. While the European Union remains its primary trading partner, substantial informal trade exists with Tunisia and Mali, driven by tax and subsidy differentials.

The report examines the 2022 Angolan elections, highlighting a systemic bias toward the ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). It identifies critical failures in electoral management, including the government's control of the voters' roll, the lack of independence in the National Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court, and the restriction of domestic and international observers. The document also notes a deteriorating socioeconomic environment marked by extreme poverty and inflation, which increases the risk of post-election instability.

The report identifies widespread labor rights violations by Chinese companies in Southern Africa, including low wages, unsafe working conditions, and unfair dismissals. It highlights a systemic failure of national governments to enforce labor laws, often exacerbated by corruption and political ties between Chinese investors and local elites. While some positive impacts on employment and infrastructure are noted, the study emphasizes the precarious nature of these jobs and the marginalization of trade unions.

The study found that an integrated intervention of parenting programmes and social activation led to significant decreases in children's internalising and externalising behaviours and a reduction in parenting stress. While there was a trend toward decreased spanking, overall positive parenting levels remained stable. Social network analysis revealed that programme participants became more influential, potentially spreading positive parenting practices to non-attendees. However, the impact was undermined by systemic risks including intimate partner violence, poor mental health, and substance abuse, which the authors argue must be addressed through integrated social and government services to optimise outcomes.