Africa’s climate and development future

The document examines the tension between Africa's development goals, specifically Agenda 2063, and the risk of high-carbon growth. It argues that while pursuing traditional fossil-fuel-led development would significantly increase carbon emissions, Africa can leverage its vast reserves of critical minerals and renewable energy potential to achieve a low-carbon transition. The authors emphasize that climate change exacerbates existing instabilities and that current global climate finance architectures are inadequate, often treating adaptation as aid or providing loans that increase debt. The brief recommends a multi-actor approach to African agency and a strategic shift to place climate change at the center of all diplomacy and development to avoid the 'resource curse' and ensure equitable wealth redistribution.

• Pursuing the African Union's Agenda 2063 through a fossil-fuel-driven paradigm could lead to a substantial increase in carbon emissions. Modeling suggests that delivering on Agenda 2063 would release approximately 297 million tonnes more carbon by 2043 than the current development trajectory, potentially increasing Africa's contribution to global emissions from 9% to 12% by 2043, and up to 30% by 2063.
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier in Africa, where climate-driven scarcity interacts with existing socio-economic issues—such as poverty, poor resource management, and weak rule of law—to fuel political instability and conflict.
• Africa possesses approximately 30% of the global mineral reserves essential for low-carbon technologies, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. This presents an opportunity for African countries to move up the value chain and become manufacturers of green technologies, provided they avoid the 'resource curse'.
• A transition to renewable energy could provide significant macroeconomic benefits for Africa, including a 6.4% increase in GDP, 3.5% more jobs, and a 25.4% increase in the welfare index between 2021 and 2050, while reducing vulnerability to fossil fuel price shocks.
• The current global climate finance architecture is criticized for creating artificial boundaries between development and climate adaptation, often providing funding as loans that increase the debt burden of African countries rather than as grants for damage caused by climate change.
• To achieve a just transition, the redistribution of wealth and social well-being must be prioritized to prevent new development pathways from entrenching existing vulnerabilities and disparities.

APA

Naidoo, D., & Gulati, M. (2023). Africa’s climate and development future. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf

Chicago

Naidoo, Dhesigen, and Manisha Gulati. Africa’s climate and development future. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naidoo |first1=Dhesigen |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |title=Africa’s climate and development future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naidoo2023africas, author = {Naidoo, Dhesigen and Gulati, Manisha}, title = {{Africa’s climate and development future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }