Africa’s climate and development future

This policy brief argues that Africa must avoid high-carbon development pathways, which could see the continent's global emissions contribution rise to 30% by 2063 under Agenda 2063 scenarios. It highlights that climate-driven scarcity combined with poor governance can fuel instability, but suggests that Africa's 30% share of critical minerals for green tech offers a path toward sustainable industrialisation. The authors call for a common African position on climate investments and a reform of the global climate finance architecture to remove artificial boundaries between development and climate adaptation.

• Pursuing the African Union’s Agenda 2063 through a fossil fuel-driven paradigm could significantly increase carbon emissions. Modeling by the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme suggests that delivering on Agenda 2063 would release approximately 297 million tonnes more carbon by 2043 than the current development trajectory, potentially increasing Africa's contribution to global carbon emissions from 9% to 12% by 2043, and up to 30% by 2063.
• Climate change-induced scarcity, when combined with non-climate drivers such as poverty, weak rule of law, and poor resource management, can increase socio-economic and political instability and lead to more conflict in Africa.
• Africa possesses approximately 30% of the global mineral reserves essential for low-carbon technologies, including cobalt, lithium, nickel, and graphite. This provides an opportunity for African countries to move up the value chain and become manufacturers of green products, provided they avoid the "resource curse" and link mineral access to local value chains and green industrialisation objectives via the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

APA

Naidoo, D., & Gulati, M. (2023). Africa’s climate and development future. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf

Chicago

Naidoo, Dhesigen, and Manisha Gulati. Africa’s climate and development future. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Naidoo |first1=Dhesigen |last2=Gulati |first2=Manisha |title=Africa’s climate and development future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2023 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{naidoo2023africas, author = {Naidoo, Dhesigen and Gulati, Manisha}, title = {{Africa’s climate and development future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/policy-brief-180-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }