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The document argues that the 2026 JTWP dialogues should be structured around international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building, and knowledge sharing to inform the design of the Just Transition Mechanism. Drawing on research from the Global South, it highlights critical gaps in financing for social protection, the risks of extractive dynamics in critical mineral supply chains, and the need for technology co-development rather than simple transfer. It specifically identifies needs for better disaggregated data in countries like Uganda and Kenya, and the risk of 'greening elsewhere' in Indonesia due to coal-powered nickel smelting.

Climate Strategies argues that the upcoming Just Transition mechanism must overcome the current fragmentation of the UNFCCC architecture by integrating finance, technology, and stakeholder engagement. The submission recommends grounding the mechanism in real-world implementation evidence from the Global South, adopting multi-level and multi-sector governance, and ensuring that participation for marginalized groups translates into meaningful policy influence rather than mere procedural consultation.

The document identifies systemic barriers to transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly for countries heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, such as Canada, Nigeria, and Malaysia. It argues that a successful transition requires multilateral coordination between importers and exporters, collaborative governance frameworks, and a commitment to Just Transition principles to avoid exacerbating global inequalities. Key recommendations include strategic economic diversification, the use of multi-model evidence for planning, and the implementation of restorative justice to address historical harms.

The document argues that because the energy transition is already underway due to technological shifts, countries must proactively plan for a Just Transition to avoid economic dislocation. It highlights opportunities for economic diversification, such as Ghana's investment plan to generate 400,000 net jobs by 2060, and best practices like Brazil's reallocation of petroleum revenues to reforestation. However, it identifies critical barriers, including fiscal dependence on fossil fuels in countries like Azerbaijan (where oil and gas constitute 90% of exports) and a lack of granular data on workforce impacts in Indonesia. The author proposes actionable solutions including the repurposing of coal infrastructure, the expansion of local financing mechanisms, and the anchoring of transition policies in legal frameworks to ensure long-term stability.

The report critiques CBAM designs based on incurred emissions due to legal, administrative, and economic risks, such as resource shuffling and export leakage. It proposes a three-pillar alternative: a 'climate contribution' charge on basic materials, dynamic free EU ETS allowance allocation conditional on transition plans, and Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfDs) to fund the incremental costs of clean production. This framework aims to provide effective carbon price signals across the value chain and support an inclusive transition across all EU industrial regions.

The briefing paper contends that carbon prices in Phase III of the EU ETS will likely fall in the lower end of the €20-40/tCO2 range, contradicting higher projections from the European Commission and other modelling studies. The author bases this on historical evidence showing that costs for environmental regulations—such as CFC phase-outs and sulphur dioxide trading—are consistently overestimated. The analysis highlights that current models often fail to account for the synergy between the EU's carbon cap and its other policy pillars, specifically the 20% energy efficiency target and renewable energy directives. Furthermore, the document notes that the 2007-2008 economic crisis, characterized by lower growth forecasts and higher fossil fuel prices, will further depress emissions and carbon prices. The author also points to the potential for a price collapse if the EU increases its acceptance of international credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

The document proposes a Green Investment Scheme (GIS) to recycle revenues from Russian Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) into environmental projects. It outlines two primary implementation paths: a 'programme approach' for small, simple efficiency projects and a 'project approach' for larger, unique investments. The report identifies significant institutional barriers in Russia, including a lack of a strong national focal point and poor reporting statistics, which hinder the eligibility of AAUs for trading. It analyzes the varying requirements of potential buyers: the EU emphasizes environmental integrity and strategic energy dialogue; Japan values good governance and a mix of quantifiable and non-quantifiable activities; and Canada prefers quantifiable, project-specific investments. The authors recommend prioritizing small-scale, technically simple projects in energy efficiency, fuel switching, and renewable energy to build momentum and reduce transaction costs.

The document argues that the EU's 2030 framework must combine price-based instruments with structural and behavioural policies to drive decarbonisation. It suggests reforming the EU ETS to better signal long-term scarcity and phase out coal, introducing new auctioning and project-based mechanisms for non-ETS sectors to ensure liquidity and transformation resources, and establishing a streamlined governance mechanism for Member State coordination through national decarbonisation plans.

The report argues that the EU's energy security, particularly regarding natural gas, cannot be solved by a 'magic bullet' but requires a combined approach of supply-side and demand-side measures. While LNG and internal market infrastructure reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions, demand-side actions like energy efficiency and renewables are essential to reduce the overall cost of imports and long-term dependency. The analysis highlights that Central and Eastern European Member States remain particularly vulnerable to Russian supply cuts, but that decarbonization goals in the power sector do not necessarily conflict with gas security due to the sector's fuel-switching capabilities. The report concludes that the EU should set ambitious, quantifiable energy efficiency and renewable targets to reinforce its strategic resilience.

The document argues that current national emission pledges for 2020 are incomparable due to differing accounting methods and are collectively insufficient to maintain robust carbon market prices. It highlights that the global recession has reduced the actual effort required to meet these targets and warns that weak short-term pledges shift a disproportionate and potentially infeasible burden of emission reductions onto future generations to meet 2050 goals.

Peru's emissions are projected to triple by 2050, driven by economic growth and energy demand. While the country has established mitigation plans and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), implementation is hindered by financial, regulatory, and knowledge barriers. Significant potential exists in renewable energy, forestry, and waste management, though the energy sector is currently dominated by natural gas. The report suggests that SECO can support Peru through capacity building for market mechanisms, financing marginal abatement cost studies, and promoting specific technologies like solar water heaters and energy-efficient industrial equipment.

Vietnam faces high vulnerability to climate change and rapidly growing emissions, projected to reach 387 Mt by 2030, primarily driven by energy supply. While the government has established the National Target Program and various energy efficiency laws, the report finds that existing and planned projects are likely to harvest only 12% of the available abatement potential between 2015 and 2030. Major barriers include low electricity and coal prices, limited technical and financial capacity among stakeholders, and institutional overlaps. The study recommends a coordinated national mitigation programme and specific sector-level interventions in REDD+, wind policy, industrial energy efficiency, and waste management.

Climate Strategies proposes that the EU 2030 framework must move beyond a single greenhouse gas target to a three-pillar system: standards and engagement (Pillar I), markets and pricing (Pillar II), and strategic investment for innovation (Pillar III). The authors argue that relying on any single pillar is self-defeating and that a hybrid price-and-quantity instrument for the EU ETS is necessary to provide the stability required to attract institutional investment. This framework is presented as a means to stimulate economic growth and utilize surplus private capital for low-carbon infrastructure.

The briefing outlines a pathway for Nigeria to reach net-zero emissions by 2060, emphasizing the need to move away from oil dependency through Public-Private Community Partnerships (PPCP). It identifies critical opportunities in waste management, clean energy access, and the AFOLU sector, while proposing the use of debt-for-climate swaps to fund the USD 410 billion Energy Transition Plan. The authors argue that systemic transformation requires engaging key government stakeholders, such as the Office of the Vice-President, and supporting local cleantech entrepreneurship to create green jobs.

The document examines how carbon pricing affects different household income levels across developed and developing countries. It argues that while carbon pricing can be regressive—disproportionately impacting low-income households who spend more of their income on energy—these effects can be neutralized or turned into net benefits through strategic revenue recycling, such as lump-sum rebates or targeted subsidies. The briefing highlights that in very low-income countries, carbon pricing can actually be progressive due to limited fossil fuel access among the poorest. It provides case studies from the EU ETS, the US Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), South Africa, and Iran to illustrate various implementation and mitigation strategies.

The report argues that traditional economic tools, such as cost-benefit analysis and equilibrium models, are inadequate for the structural changes required by the energy transition. It proposes a shift toward 'Risk-Opportunity Analysis' and dynamic modelling that accounts for induced innovation and learning-by-doing. Based on successes in solar PV, LED lighting, and wind power, the authors outline ten principles for policymaking, emphasizing targeted investment, risk management, and adaptive policy packages. National case studies in Brazil, China, and India suggest that while decarbonisation has a negligible impact on overall system costs and GDP, the transition requires significant up-front investment and careful management of distributional impacts, particularly in coal-dependent regions.

The executive summary examines domestic climate policy implementation in developing countries through six case studies in Brazil, Ghana, India, South Africa, and China. It argues that while development co-benefits drive domestic support, resource constraints and competing priorities hinder progress. The document proposes that international support—including technical assistance, technology cooperation, and financial resources for incremental costs—can overcome these barriers. It specifically advocates for the use of intermediate policy indicators for monitoring and incentive schemes, rather than relying solely on long-term emissions reductions, to provide early rewards and flexibility.

The report examines Kenya's path toward a low-carbon economy, highlighting that while a net-zero transition offers economic opportunities and green jobs, it risks marginalizing vulnerable groups—particularly women, youth, and informal workers—if not managed inclusively. It analyzes sector-specific risks in agriculture, energy, transport, industry, forestry, waste, and tourism, noting that while Kenya has a robust legal framework via the Climate Change Act (2016), just transition objectives are not yet mainstreamed into primary development plans like Vision 2030. The document advocates for stakeholder engagement, social protection, and gender-sensitive policies to ensure the transition reduces existing inequalities rather than compounding them.

The document examines the 'CER yield' of CDM projects, finding significant underperformance and variation based on project type, size, and developer. It identifies mis-calculation and implementation delays as the primary drivers of failure, while noting that bilateral projects generally outperform unilateral ones.

The report details the proceedings of the 4th GCPC, highlighting the critical need for a science-policy interface amidst rising political populism. It identifies governance and finance as primary cross-cutting challenges, while also examining specific policy contexts including urban adaptation, land-use coordination, trade regulations, and the social dimensions of energy transitions.