The EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework and Energy Security

The report argues that the EU's energy security, particularly regarding natural gas, cannot be solved by a 'magic bullet' but requires a combined approach of supply-side and demand-side measures. While LNG and internal market infrastructure reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions, demand-side actions like energy efficiency and renewables are essential to reduce the overall cost of imports and long-term dependency. The analysis highlights that Central and Eastern European Member States remain particularly vulnerable to Russian supply cuts, but that decarbonization goals in the power sector do not necessarily conflict with gas security due to the sector's fuel-switching capabilities. The report concludes that the EU should set ambitious, quantifiable energy efficiency and renewable targets to reinforce its strategic resilience.

• The EU remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, with 2013 dependency rates of 88% for oil, 66% for gas, and 45% for coal, which exposes the region to global price risks and supply disruptions from monopolistic providers like Russia.
• Central and Eastern European Member States, including the Baltic States, Finland, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania, are particularly vulnerable to Russian gas supply disruptions due to high dependency and insufficient alternative physical supply routes.
• Modelling shows that a 100% supply cut from Russia in January would lead to extreme price increases in the Baltic States and Finland, where prices could rise by 238% to 481%, effectively reducing gas consumption in Finland to zero.
• While LNG terminals diversify supply and increase market contestability, they are not a complete solution because they expose the EU to international price risks and can be undercut by Russian pricing strategies to maintain market share.
• Completing Projects of Common Interest (PCIs) for internal market infrastructure significantly improves resilience; for example, short-term projects could reduce the price increase in CEE member states from 75% to 59% during a 100% January supply cut.
• A 10% reduction in annual natural gas demand by 2030 could lead to a roughly 13% decline in average prices across the EU27, providing significant economic benefits to consumers.
• Deep retrofitting of European buildings could reduce the sector's natural gas consumption by 40% (600 TWh) by 2030, which is 1.5 times the current volume of imports from Russia.
• Decarbonizing the power sector does not necessarily increase vulnerability to gas disruptions because the sector can quickly switch to alternative fuels when gas prices spike, and gas's role as a balancing fuel requires manageable volumes.
• Increasing the use of coal as a gas substitute is inconsistent with the EU's mid-century decarbonization goals, as coal and lignite already account for approximately 30% of energy-related CO2 emissions despite being only 17% of primary energy consumption.
• Coal-intensive Member States like Poland face structural economic challenges, as domestic coal is becoming uncompetitive compared to imports (over 60% of Polish coal imports come from Russia), making a transition to diversified energy sources necessary regardless of climate policy.

APA

Sartor, O., Spencer, T., Bart, I., Julia, P.-E., Gawlikowska-Fyk, A., Neuhoff, K., Ruester, S., Selei, A., Szpor, A., Toth, B., & Tuerk, A. (n.d.). The EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework and Energy Security. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cs-iddri-eu-2030-framework-energy-security-1.pdf

Chicago

Sartor, Oliver, Thomas Spencer, Istvan Bart, Pierre-Emanuel Julia, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Karsten Neuhoff, Sophia Ruester, et al. The EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework and Energy Security. Climate Strategies, n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cs-iddri-eu-2030-framework-energy-security-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{sartorndeus, author = {Sartor, Oliver and Spencer, Thomas and Bart, Istvan and Julia, Pierre-Emanuel and Gawlikowska-Fyk, Aleksandra and Neuhoff, Karsten and Ruester, Sophia and Selei, Adrienn and Szpor, Aleksander and Toth, Borbala and Tuerk, Andreas}, title = {{The EU’s 2030 Climate and Energy Framework and Energy Security}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cs-iddri-eu-2030-framework-energy-security-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }