Climate Strategies’ submission to the COP30 Presidency on the Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly and Equitable Manner

The document identifies systemic barriers to transitioning away from fossil fuels, particularly for countries heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, such as Canada, Nigeria, and Malaysia. It argues that a successful transition requires multilateral coordination between importers and exporters, collaborative governance frameworks, and a commitment to Just Transition principles to avoid exacerbating global inequalities. Key recommendations include strategic economic diversification, the use of multi-model evidence for planning, and the implementation of restorative justice to address historical harms.

• Resource-dependent countries face systemic barriers to transition, including fiscal instability and macroeconomic risks. Approximately twenty countries rely on oil and gas for more than 20% of fiscal revenues, and about ten countries rely on them for more than half.
• The transition is hindered by the 'energy trilemma' and uncertainty regarding market dynamics. Governments must balance climate goals against energy security, affordability, and access, while stakeholders struggle with the unpredictable pace and scope of the global energy transition.
• Collaborative governance and international coordination between fossil fuel importers and exporters are essential levers for a successful transition. This could include bilateral trade agreements that allow fossil fuel trade for a set period provided exporters decarbonise production, paired with clean energy purchase agreements.
• Successful transitions require strategic, targeted economic diversification and the diversification of public revenues. Examples include the UAE leveraging its location for trade and logistics, and countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman introducing VAT and corporate taxes to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
• Energy transitions typically follow a staged sequence: first decarbonising the power sector via renewables, then electrifying end-use sectors (buildings, transport), and finally de-fossilising hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and shipping using hydrogen or e-fuels.
• A Just Transition must address cross-border impacts and avoid 'greening' advanced economies at the expense of others. Research in Indonesia indicates that global demand for nickel for green supply chains may lead to deforestation and environmental degradation.
• To ensure equity, the roadmap should allow for asynchronous transitions, requiring more ambitious actions from developed countries, specifically in reducing gas-powered electricity generation, to enable feasible pathways for developing nations.

APA

Climate Strategies (n.d.). Climate Strategies’ submission to the COP30 Presidency on the Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly and Equitable Manner. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ClimateStrategies_UNFCCC-TAFF-submission_March2026.pdf

Chicago

Climate Strategies. Climate Strategies’ submission to the COP30 Presidency on the Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly and Equitable Manner. n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ClimateStrategies_UNFCCC-TAFF-submission_March2026.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |author=Climate Strategies |title=Climate Strategies’ submission to the COP30 Presidency on the Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly and Equitable Manner |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ClimateStrategies_UNFCCC-TAFF-submission_March2026.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{climatestrategiesndclimate, author = {{Climate Strategies}}, title = {{Climate Strategies’ submission to the COP30 Presidency on the Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels in a Just, Orderly and Equitable Manner}}, publisher = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/ClimateStrategies_UNFCCC-TAFF-submission_March2026.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }