PAPER SERIES ON ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO TARGET BASED NEGOTIATIONS

The document argues that current national emission pledges for 2020 are incomparable due to differing accounting methods and are collectively insufficient to maintain robust carbon market prices. It highlights that the global recession has reduced the actual effort required to meet these targets and warns that weak short-term pledges shift a disproportionate and potentially infeasible burden of emission reductions onto future generations to meet 2050 goals.

• National emission pledges for 2020 cannot be fully compared or understood because they utilize different base years, measure different greenhouse gases, and employ varying approaches to sequestration and offsets. Significant uncertainty exists regarding how surplus units from the first Kyoto period and domestic land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits affect allowed emissions for non-LULUCF sectors.
• The global recession has lowered expected business-as-usual emissions for 2020, thereby reducing the actual effort required by developed countries to meet their pledged targets. However, a lack of data sources incorporating recession impacts makes robust quantitative analysis of this reduced effort difficult.
• Current pledges are insufficient to sustain the carbon market prices necessary to peak emissions by 2020. Downward pressure on demand is caused by weak targets, recession-related emission drops, and surplus Kyoto units, while supply is increased by domestic LULUCF credits and existing Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. This lack of market 'scarcity' risks undermining the price signals needed to incentivize private sector investment in low-carbon technologies.
• There is a discrepancy between the weak 2020 pledges and the 2050 goals outlined in the Copenhagen Accord (50% global reduction; 80-90% for developed countries) to limit warming to 2°C. Reconciling these requires deep year-by-year reductions between 2020 and 2050, which may be more costly or technologically infeasible to implement at the required scale.

APA

Ward, M., Grubb, M., Baker, A., Bowen, A., Parker, S., & Iyadomi, K. (n.d.). PAPER SERIES ON ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO TARGET BASED NEGOTIATIONS. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-series-analytic-support-key-messages-final.pdf

Chicago

Ward, Murray, Michael Grubb, Antonia Baker, Alex Bowen, Sophia Parker, and Keisuke Iyadomi. PAPER SERIES ON ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO TARGET BASED NEGOTIATIONS. Climate Strategies, n.d. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-series-analytic-support-key-messages-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ward |first1=Murray |last2=Grubb |first2=Michael |last3=Baker |first3=Antonia |last4=Bowen |first4=Alex |last5=Parker |first5=Sophia |last6=Iyadomi |first6=Keisuke |title=PAPER SERIES ON ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO TARGET BASED NEGOTIATIONS |publisher=Climate Strategies |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-series-analytic-support-key-messages-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wardndpaper, author = {Ward, Murray and Grubb, Michael and Baker, Antonia and Bowen, Alex and Parker, Sophia and Iyadomi, Keisuke}, title = {{PAPER SERIES ON ANALYTIC SUPPORT TO TARGET BASED NEGOTIATIONS}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-series-analytic-support-key-messages-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }