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The report outlines seven key recommendations for ensuring a just transition away from fossil fuels, focusing on institutionalising social dialogue, enhancing transition modelling, implementing worker-centred planning, and pursuing sequenced economic diversification. It emphasises the need for collaborative governance, justice-oriented finance, and the integration of just transition principles into multilateral processes like the Belém Roadmap.

Europe experienced its coldest January since 2010, with temperatures 1.63°C above the 1991-2020 mean, though regional variations were significant. Forecasts for March-May 2026 project warmer-than-average temperatures across the continent, particularly in eastern and southeastern Europe, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

The document reports that Europe experienced its joint-fourth warmest December on record in 2025, with temperatures 1.99°C above the 1991-2020 mean. For the spring of 2026 (March-May), forecasts project warmer-than-average temperatures across the continent, with the highest anomalies in northeastern Europe, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

The document reports that Europe experienced a November 2025 temperature 1.38°C above the 1991-2020 mean, with record highs in central western Russia and record low precipitation in Turkey. For the January-March 2026 period, forecasts project warmer-than-average temperatures across Europe, particularly in the northeast, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies, though soil moisture is expected to be weakly negative in Spain, Italy, central Europe, and Turkey.

Climate Strategies' 2026-2029 strategy focuses on accelerating the science-policy nexus to deliver inclusive and effective climate action. The organisation operates as a neutral knowledge broker, connecting a network of over 120 members with policymakers to address systemic gaps in climate finance, adaptation, and fossil fuel phase-out. Its strategic framework is built around five impact areas: Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels, Nature and Resilient Food Systems, Global Majority-Powered Change, Equitable Carbon & Climate Innovation, and Building Evidence-Based Climate Narratives. The strategy emphasises the need for Just Transitions, the inclusion of Global Majority perspectives in policy recommendations, and the use of evidence-based narratives to counter climate obstruction and misinformation.

The document reviews Chile's evolution toward a Just Socioecological Transition (JSET), highlighting the shift from energy-focused policies to a multi-dimensional approach. It identifies critical gaps in monitoring, funding, and legislative alignment while suggesting international mechanisms to support the 2025-2035 National Strategy.

Kenya is a regional leader in renewable energy and climate action, but it lacks a formal, dedicated National Just Transition Framework. While elements of social equity and inclusion are embedded in the Constitution, the Climate Change Act (2016), and the second NDC (2031–2035), the transition is hindered by institutional fragmentation, a skills mismatch in the workforce, and inadequate data systems. The document highlights the energy sector as the cornerstone for decarbonisation, aiming for 100% renewable energy by 2035, and identifies agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU), transport, and waste management as other priority sectors. Key barriers include the financial vulnerability of those in the AFOLU sector due to carbon market fluctuations and a debt cycle where climate-resilient infrastructure diverts funds from worker retraining. The brief recommends that international actors provide technical capacity for policy integration, support the development of monitoring systems, and restructure global green value chains to ensure greater value-added benefits for producing countries like Kenya.

Uganda has developed a Just Transition Framework (JTF) to ensure that structural economic changes toward sustainability do not marginalize vulnerable groups, particularly informal workers and smallholder farmers. The framework is integrated into national planning cycles, including the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), and emphasizes distributive, procedural, and restorative justice. While Uganda has established multi-stakeholder coordination and project screening tools, it faces significant barriers such as a lack of a national resettlement policy, high labor market informality (over 80%), and severe data gaps. The document calls for international grant-based support for labor economy modeling, the creation of a national resettlement policy, and programmatic finance for re-skilling and livelihood restoration.

The document examines Indonesia's Just Transition (JT) agenda, primarily driven by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). While a comprehensive framework exists on paper, implementation is hindered by governance restructuring, a narrow focus on the energy sector, inadequate financing for social components, and significant data gaps. The author argues for expanding JT principles across all economic sectors, strengthening subnational capacity, and increasing grant-based financing to ensure an equitable shift to a low-carbon economy.

The report identifies seven recurring patterns where international climate support reproduces structural barriers in the Global South, such as prioritising technical infrastructure over social protection and centralising decision-making power. Based on analysis of Chile, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Vietnam, it argues that Just Transition efforts are hindered by labour informality, contested land rights, and a lack of subnational delivery capacity. The framework recommends that the JTWP embed social requirements in finance, strengthen subnational institutions, develop justice-aligned data systems, shift from consultation to co-decision, and address the extractive dynamics of green supply chains.

The document identifies four primary constraints to South Africa's just transition: a significant finance gap, delivery frictions in project cycles, fragmented skills and employment pathways, and a lack of accountability and legitimacy. It argues that success depends on moving from high-level pledges to 'delivery-grade' finance and coordinated, place-based implementation, particularly in coal-affected regions like Mpumalanga.

Vietnam aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, targeting a 47% renewable energy share in electricity generation by 2030. While the country has integrated Just Transition principles into national strategies and secured a USD 15.5 billion commitment via the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), it faces significant gaps in governance, social protection, and workforce reskilling. The brief recommends establishing a National Just Transition Commission and expanding international finance to cover social dimensions beyond energy infrastructure.

Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions, Russia has pivoted its fossil fuel exports toward Asia. While this has partially offset revenue losses from the European market, the report argues that Russia remains locked in a hydrocarbon-centric model that is increasingly misaligned with the decarbonisation trajectories of its primary Asian customers. China and India have leveraged discounted Russian oil and coal to support economic growth while simultaneously diversifying their energy portfolios and expanding renewable capacity. Vietnam has seen modest growth in Russian coal and nascent LNG trade, balancing energy security with sustainability goals. The report highlights structural bottlenecks, such as limited rail capacity for coal and the risks of a 'shadow fleet' for oil, as significant constraints on Russia's long-term export viability.

Climate Strategies reflects on COP30, noting disappointments over fossil fuel phase-out language and adaptation funding, while highlighting the creation of the Integrated Forum on Climate Change and Trade (IFCCT) and the proposal for a Just Transition Mechanism. The organization also notes Colombia's commitment to host a global diplomatic conference on fossil fuel transitions in April 2026.

Europe experienced a warmer-than-average October 2025, with significant rainfall in the Balkans. Forecasts for the December 2025 – February 2026 winter period project warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly in northeastern Europe, and weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

The Just Transition Compass was launched at a networking dinner in Belém during COP30. Developed by LACLIMA and Climate Strategies with support from GIZ and the COP30 Presidency, the Compass is an operational tool designed to help negotiators and implementers translate high-level climate ambitions into fair, inclusive transitions. It focuses on governance choices regarding participation, safeguards, and the distribution of benefits and burdens to prevent the creation of new 'sacrifice zones'. The launch followed a series of dialogues in Brasília, Panama, Bonn, and Addis Ababa, and serves as a foundation for continued collaboration on policy design and financing beyond the project's conclusion on 31 December 2025.

The Just Transition Compass serves as a non-prescriptive guide to move Just Transitions from high-level dialogue to concrete implementation. It defines core principles of distributive, procedural, and restorative justice, identifies systemic barriers to national implementation—such as limited subnational capacity and siloed finance—and analyzes the political tensions within the UNFCCC's Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). The report advocates for a permanent international coordination mechanism to align fragmented efforts, manage the cross-border impacts of unilateral trade measures like the EU's CBAM, and mobilize private capital through sustainable finance taxonomies.

The Just Transition Compass establishes a framework to move from high-level climate commitments to scalable, justice-focused implementation. It identifies four core elements of a just transition—restorative, distributive, procedural, and climate justice—and argues that domestic transitions require international cooperation to avoid economic spillovers and financial inequalities. The document proposes the creation of a permanent Just Transition Coordination Unit within the UNFCCC to reduce fragmentation, align financial flows, and provide capacity support to countries.

The document analyzes Brazil's position as a top global oil producer, noting that while its current production is economically resilient to most climate scenarios, the pursuit of new frontiers like the Equatorial Margin carries high stranded asset risks. It highlights Brazil's potential to lead in low-carbon fuels and critical minerals but warns that a lack of coordinated industrial policy and investment in innovation may limit its competitiveness. The author recommends using advanced modeling to optimize investments in refining and green fuels and suggests leveraging diplomatic ties with China and the EU to diversify the economy post-fossil fuels.

Europe's September 2025 was its 5th warmest on record, with significant temperature and precipitation variations across the continent. Forecasts for the December 2025 – February 2026 winter period project above-average temperatures, particularly in eastern and northeastern Europe, and weakly positive precipitation anomalies.