Unlocking a Just Transition in Kenya

Kenya is a regional leader in renewable energy and climate action, but it lacks a formal, dedicated National Just Transition Framework. While elements of social equity and inclusion are embedded in the Constitution, the Climate Change Act (2016), and the second NDC (2031–2035), the transition is hindered by institutional fragmentation, a skills mismatch in the workforce, and inadequate data systems. The document highlights the energy sector as the cornerstone for decarbonisation, aiming for 100% renewable energy by 2035, and identifies agriculture, forestry, land use (AFOLU), transport, and waste management as other priority sectors. Key barriers include the financial vulnerability of those in the AFOLU sector due to carbon market fluctuations and a debt cycle where climate-resilient infrastructure diverts funds from worker retraining. The brief recommends that international actors provide technical capacity for policy integration, support the development of monitoring systems, and restructure global green value chains to ensure greater value-added benefits for producing countries like Kenya.

• Kenya lacks a formal, dedicated legal or policy framework for Just Transition, although the concept is increasingly integrated into broader climate and development plans.
• The energy sector is central to Kenya's decarbonisation strategy, with a target of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2035 to drive green jobs and economic growth.
• Significant barriers to a Just Transition include institutional fragmentation, a lack of technical capacity in sub-national governments, and a mismatch between existing vocational training and the skills required for green jobs.
• The transition is financially precarious for vulnerable groups in the AFOLU sector, as they rely on carbon markets that are subject to global price fluctuations and unstable benefit-sharing.
• Kenya's climate-related financial losses are severe, with an estimated 2% loss of GDP in the 2023-2024 financial year, and the cost of NDC mitigation is estimated at 19% of the required USD 56 billion.
• Current monitoring and verification (MRV+) systems are insufficient because they prioritise economic indicators and exclude non-economic losses such as youth mental health and cultural erosion.
• International support is needed to restructure green value chains so that producing countries receive more value-added benefits and to make Just Transition indicators mandatory in global climate reporting.

APA

Musembi, E., Kigundu, K., & Mulwa, R. (2026). Unlocking a Just Transition in Kenya. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CECG-Kenya-Policy-Brief.pdf

Chicago

Musembi, Elly, Kenneth Kigundu, and Richard Mulwa. Unlocking a Just Transition in Kenya. Climate Strategies, 2026. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CECG-Kenya-Policy-Brief.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Musembi |first1=Elly |last2=Kigundu |first2=Kenneth |last3=Mulwa |first3=Richard |title=Unlocking a Just Transition in Kenya |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2026 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CECG-Kenya-Policy-Brief.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{musembi2026unlocking, author = {Musembi, Elly and Kigundu, Kenneth and Mulwa, Richard}, title = {{Unlocking a Just Transition in Kenya}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2026}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CECG-Kenya-Policy-Brief.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }