Resiliente, mas ainda não transformador: o setor de petróleo e gás do Brasil em um mundo em descarbonização

The document analyzes Brazil's position as a top global oil producer, noting that while its current production is economically resilient to most climate scenarios, the pursuit of new frontiers like the Equatorial Margin carries high stranded asset risks. It highlights Brazil's potential to lead in low-carbon fuels and critical minerals but warns that a lack of coordinated industrial policy and investment in innovation may limit its competitiveness. The author recommends using advanced modeling to optimize investments in refining and green fuels and suggests leveraging diplomatic ties with China and the EU to diversify the economy post-fossil fuels.

• Brazil has become the ninth largest global oil producer, with crude oil exports totaling US$ 45 billion in 2024, making it the country's primary export. Production grew from 1.8 million barrels per day (mbd) to 3.4 mbd, with the state-owned company Petrobras controlling over three-quarters of total production.
• Brazil's oil sector has limited impact on national employment and public revenue compared to other major producers, though specific regions like Rio de Janeiro are highly dependent. Oil royalties account for approximately 5% of total public revenue in 2024, but the Rio de Janeiro state government derives about a quarter of its revenue from these royalties.
• Most of Petrobras's current exploration and production portfolio remains profitable under various climate scenarios. Under the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), 98% of the portfolio would generate value, and 65% would remain profitable under a Net Zero (1.5°C) scenario, though independent analyses suggest slightly lower figures of 89% and 60% respectively.
• New exploration frontiers, specifically the Equatorial Margin and the 'Foz do Amazonas' basin, face significant risks of becoming stranded assets. Because first oil from new offshore fields may not be produced for 5 to 10 years and fields have average lifespans of 30 years, production could extend into the 2060s or 2070s, when global oil markets may be severely diminished.
• Brazil possesses the resources and technology to lead in low-carbon fuels such as Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), green hydrogen, and synthetic fuels, but is hindered by a lack of coordinated national strategy and insufficient investment in innovation compared to the US and EU. This creates a risk that Brazil will remain a mere exporter of raw materials.
• The current distribution of oil revenues is described as dysfunctional, with a small number of municipalities near offshore fields receiving the bulk of royalties while federal funds lack accountability. There are legislative proposals to mandate transparency and minimum spending on Amazon protection for royalty-receiving municipalities.

APA

Lippolis, N. (2025). Resiliente, mas ainda não transformador: o setor de petróleo e gás do Brasil em um mundo em descarbonização. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil-PT-11112025.pdf

Chicago

Lippolis, Nicolas. Resiliente, mas ainda não transformador: o setor de petróleo e gás do Brasil em um mundo em descarbonização. Climate Strategies, 2025. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil-PT-11112025.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Lippolis |first1=Nicolas |title=Resiliente, mas ainda não transformador: o setor de petróleo e gás do Brasil em um mundo em descarbonização |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=November 2025 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil-PT-11112025.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lippolis2025resiliente, author = {Lippolis, Nicolas}, title = {{Resiliente, mas ainda não transformador: o setor de petróleo e gás do Brasil em um mundo em descarbonização}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/PPFF-2.0-Case-Study-Brazil-PT-11112025.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }