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228 documents from Basque Centre for Climate Change
Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)
The research finds that income and price elasticities for passenger transport in the UK were very high in the mid-nineteenth century and have declined continuously, with land transport becoming price inelastic in the 1920s and income inelastic by the early 1940s. Technological transitions, specifically the introduction of cars and airplanes, are found to have delayed the decline of these elasticities by providing higher quality services. The author argues that while future energy transitions in land transport are unlikely to cause the dramatic energy consumption spikes seen in the nineteenth century, they may still shift energy use trends upward, suggesting that carbon pricing should focus on encouraging low-carbon technology rather than reducing overall travel demand.
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Document type: Research paper
Exploitation of soil biota ecosystem services in agriculture: a bioeconomic approach
The paper investigates the trade-offs farmers face between immediate agricultural yields and the long-term maintenance of soil biota. Using optimal control theory, it identifies six bioeconomic states based on ecological interactions (normal vs. nuisance), farmer expectations (sustainable vs. non-sustainable), and technical orientations (natural resource oriented vs. agricultural effort oriented). The analysis reveals that secure property rights and long-term preferences do not automatically lead to conservation; instead, their effect is ambiguous and depends on the specific bioeconomic state of the agroecosystem.
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Document type: Research paper
Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios
The document uses the POLES energy system model to assess how varying levels of economic growth and convergence between developed and developing nations affect the cost of climate stabilisation. It finds that limiting warming to 2°C is technically feasible and economically viable across all tested scenarios, with global abatement costs remaining below 2% of GDP by 2050. While modest growth makes stabilisation more likely, high convergence increases the absolute and relative economic burden on developing countries and increases reliance on future technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
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Document type: Policy brief
The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution
The Uniform World Model (UWM) is a simplified environmental impact assessment tool designed to calculate health impacts and damage costs from air pollution. It uses a few key input parameters and assumes a uniform distribution of receptors to provide a transparent alternative to complex 'black-box' software. The author validates the UWM by comparing its results with established models like CALPUFF, ISC3, EMEP, and GAINS across various scales and regions, including Europe, China, India, and the USA. Findings indicate that the UWM is robust, typically falling within a ±50% deviation range, and is particularly accurate for regional or continental estimates and tall stack emissions.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate change, Responsibilities, and Defeatism and Complacency
The author examines how 'paralysing defeatism' and 'complacency' prevent the implementation of feasible mitigation and adaptation measures. He argues that personal responsibility for climate change is grounded in both prudence and ethics, particularly for those in the Global North who have benefited from industrial development. To counter inaction, the author suggests using local, concrete evidence of climate change and fostering solidarity with vulnerable populations to shift the cultural beliefs and habits that obstruct action.
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Document type: Research paper
The Demand for Environmental Quality in Driving Transitions to Low Polluting Energy Sources
The document analyzes the relationship between the demand for environmental quality, government legislation, and energy transitions. Using five historical British case studies—ranging from the 17th century to the late 20th century—it argues that while markets can drive transitions under specific conditions, effective shifts to low-polluting energy sources typically require strong, sustained public demand and creative pressure groups to ensure legislation is introduced, enforced, and maintained. The author concludes that the transition to a low-carbon economy will likely require similar conditions, as current demand for climate stability may not yet be powerful enough to overcome economic counter-lobbying and political reluctance.
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Document type: Research paper
The Equivalency Principle for Discounting the Value of Natural Assets: An Application to an Investment Project in the Basque Coast
The authors introduce the 'equivalency principle' to resolve uncertainties in setting social discount rates for natural assets. This rule posits that the present value of a naturally preserved land track should be at least equal to the market price of an identical track with permission for residential development. By applying this principle to various case studies and a specific proposed seaport in Pasaia, Gipuzkoa, the paper demonstrates that traditional cost-benefit analyses using high market discount rates often bias results in favor of development, whereas the equivalency principle typically yields much lower discount rates that favor environmental conservation.
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Document type: Research paper
The Private Provision of International Impure Public Goods: the Case of Climate Policy
The authors propose a global Pigouvian tax scheme combined with international side-payments to achieve Pareto-optimal climate policy. They argue that treating climate policy as an 'impure public good'—which provides both global climate stabilisation and local ancillary benefits (e.g., reduced air pollution)—increases the attractiveness of mitigation and provides immediate financial payback for investments. Numerical simulations show that while ancillary benefits only moderately increase the required tax rates, they expand the financial scope for international transfers. The study concludes that these immediate local benefits are critical for political support, especially for countries with high public debt, as primary climate benefits are delayed by approximately half a century.
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Document type: Research paper
Long Run Trends in the Price of Energy and Energy Services
The document analyzes historical energy price trends, specifically in the United Kingdom, to argue that while energy prices can be volatile, the long-term trend for energy services (such as heating and lighting) is downward due to efficiency gains. It posits that fossil fuel reserves remain abundant relative to current consumption, suggesting that future price trends may remain stable or decline despite short-term peaks. The author emphasizes that focusing on energy prices alone underestimates consumer welfare gains and misleads climate change and energy demand modeling.
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Document type: Policy brief
Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems
The research uses hedonic pricing to determine that A+ refrigerators in the Basque Autonomous Community carry a price premium of 8.9% (approximately 60 euro), which is only one-third of the potential lifetime energy savings. By combining this with a Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS), the study finds that demand for high-efficiency refrigerators is significantly more price-elastic (ranging from -0.9 to -2.1) than demand for regular refrigerators (-0.25 to -0.75).
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Document type: Research paper
Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios
The study uses the POLES model to assess how different levels of economic growth and convergence between developed and developing nations affect the energy mix and abatement costs required to reduce global CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. It finds that low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable across all scenarios, with total abatement costs representing less than 2% of global GDP by 2050. However, the results highlight that high convergence increases the reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and places a higher absolute burden on developing countries, while developed nations continue to bear the majority of the costs.
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Document type: Research paper
Households’ WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply
The study examines how the duration of supply disruptions and the season of occurrence affect the economic valuation of gas reliability among households in three European countries. It finds that WTP varies significantly by country and is generally higher for winter disruptions, with Italian households showing the highest valuation.
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Document type: Research paper
The Long Run Demand for Lighting: Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development
The research examines the historical demand for lighting in the UK, finding that income and price elasticities peaked during the late 19th century, leading to 'backfire' where efficiency gains increased total energy use. In the 20th century, elasticities declined, meaning efficiency improvements began to yield net energy savings, though significant rebound effects persist.
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Document type: Research paper
International Climate Finance and its Influence on Fairness and Policy
The paper analyzes the role of fairness in international climate negotiations, distinguishing between intention-driven fairness (based on current motives) and consequence-driven fairness (based on historical responsibility). Using game-theoretic models, the authors argue that increasing fairness perceptions in developing countries can shift negotiation dynamics from non-cooperative states (like the Prisoners' Dilemma) toward cooperative ones. The study evaluates how different support mechanisms—such as carbon sequestration, adaptation funds, and the Green Climate Fund—can be designed to signal kindness and compensate for historical emissions to foster global cooperation.
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Document type: Research paper
Evaluating the role of energy efficiency labels in the prices of household appliances: the case of refrigerators
The study finds that A+ labeled refrigerators in the Basque Autonomous Community carry a price premium of 8.9% (approximately 60 euro) over A labeled models. This market premium is only one third of the potential lifetime energy savings (163 euro), illustrating the 'energy efficiency paradox'. The authors conclude that demand for the most energy-efficient refrigerators is highly sensitive to price changes, suggesting that subsidies of around 60 euro could be sufficient to encourage consumers to switch to high-efficiency models.
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Document type: Policy brief
Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain
The document evaluates different strategies for distributing emission reduction burdens between ETS and non-ETS sectors in Spain, alongside the impact of replacing a CO2 tax with taxes on energy, oil, or electricity. It concludes that a cost-effective distribution—where energy-intensive sectors bear a larger share of the effort—minimizes overall mitigation costs, while taxing electricity is found to be highly inefficient for reducing CO2 emissions.
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Document type: Policy brief
Endogenous Timing in Pollution Control: Stackelberg versus Cournot-Nash Equilibria
The paper analyzes the strategic interactions between countries in pollution control, comparing simultaneous (Cournot-Nash) and sequential (Stackelberg) move equilibria. By introducing a pre-play stage where countries choose their timing, the author demonstrates that while simultaneous play is prevalent when strategies are substitutable, a leader can emerge endogenously when strategic complementarities exist. The study finds that sequential play under complementarity leads to lower global emissions and higher welfare than simultaneous play. The analysis utilizes supermodular game theory to avoid restrictive assumptions like concavity or uniqueness of equilibria.
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Document type: Research paper
Competing Ecosystem services: an Assessment of Carbon and Timber in the Tropical forests of Central America
The study compares the economic returns of carbon sequestration and timber harvesting in Central American tropical forests between 1990 and 2005. It finds that while timber generally offers higher face-value returns, the attractiveness of carbon-based conservation is highly dependent on carbon pricing and discount rates. The author argues that integrating co-benefits and sustainable forestry management can make carbon-focused options more competitive.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Cancun Climate Summit: a Moderate Success
The Cancun Climate Summit is characterized as a moderate success that restored faith in the multilateral process following the Copenhagen summit. Key outcomes included the first official UN agreement to keep global temperature increases below 2°C, the recognition of voluntary emission reduction plans for 2020, and the establishment of financial mechanisms for developing countries, including a 30 billion dollar transfer for 2010-2012 and the creation of the Green Climate Fund. While the summit made progress on measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) and forest protection (REDD+), it left the decision on a second Kyoto Protocol period to the 2011 Durban summit. The authors attribute the success to the leadership of the Mexican government and the UNFCCC Executive Secretary.
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Document type: Policy brief
Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services: Conflicts in Classification
The policy brief examines conflicts in the classification of ecosystem services (ES) for economic valuation, specifically critiquing the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) framework. By analyzing 25 valuation studies of water services in Central American tropical forests published between 1985 and 2009, the authors demonstrate that the MA framework can lead to double counting and the underestimation of service values. They propose that valuation should focus on the final outcomes (outputs) that impact human welfare rather than ecological processes. This distinction is presented as critical for accurate natural capital measurement in national accounting systems like the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA).
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Document type: Policy brief