Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

The study uses the POLES model to assess how different levels of economic growth and convergence between developed and developing nations affect the energy mix and abatement costs required to reduce global CO2 emissions by 50% by 2050. It finds that low stabilisation is technically feasible and economically viable across all scenarios, with total abatement costs representing less than 2% of global GDP by 2050. However, the results highlight that high convergence increases the reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and places a higher absolute burden on developing countries, while developed nations continue to bear the majority of the costs.

• Low climate stabilisation targets, consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 2°C, are technically feasible and economically viable across all tested growth and convergence scenarios up to 2050.
• The total economic impact of the energy sector's transition to low stabilisation is estimated to be less than 2% of global GDP by 2050, which the authors describe as roughly equivalent to a one-year delay in global GDP growth.
• In a business-as-usual baseline, world CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 24.2 GtCO2 in 2000 to between 42.2 and 49.6 GtCO2 by 2050, with coal becoming the most significant growth source due to demand in Asia.
• Achieving the 2°C target requires a fundamental shift in the energy paradigm, including a 33% reduction in energy consumption per capita through efficiency and a 15% reduction in electricity consumption per capita as carbon-free sources replace fossils.
• The low-carbon energy mix for stabilisation relies heavily on solar, biomass, and nuclear power, with a critical dependence on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for remaining fossil fuel production; by 2050, over 80% of coal and over 50% of gas production would incorporate CCS.
• Higher income convergence between developed and developing nations increases the total amount of carbon sequestration required by 2050 by 0.5 GtCO2 compared to low convergence scenarios.
• Developed countries bear the majority of abatement costs, with the US and EU-27 contributing the most; however, the economic impact relative to GDP is higher in low-growth scenarios because the costs decrease more slowly than the GDP.
• Carbon prices required to meet targets vary significantly by region; by 2050, prices in the EU-27 are projected to reach $485-655/tCO2, while prices in Non-Annex 1 countries are lower, ranging from $222-285/tCO2.

APA

Markandya, A., González-Eguino, M., Criqui, P., & Mima, S. (2011). Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20110830103815478959624.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Mikel González-Eguino, Patrick Criqui, and Silvana Mima. Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2011. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20110830103815478959624.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=González-Eguino |first2=Mikel |last3=Criqui |first3=Patrick |last4=Mima |first4=Silvana |title=Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=August 2011 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20110830103815478959624.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2011low, author = {Markandya, Anil and González-Eguino, Mikel and Criqui, Patrick and Mima, Silvana}, title = {{Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2011}, month = aug, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20110830103815478959624.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }