Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

The document uses the POLES energy system model to assess how varying levels of economic growth and convergence between developed and developing nations affect the cost of climate stabilisation. It finds that limiting warming to 2°C is technically feasible and economically viable across all tested scenarios, with global abatement costs remaining below 2% of GDP by 2050. While modest growth makes stabilisation more likely, high convergence increases the absolute and relative economic burden on developing countries and increases reliance on future technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

• Stabilising global temperature increases below 2°C is technically and economically feasible across all considered growth and convergence scenarios, with total global abatement costs estimated to be less than 2% of GDP by 2050.
• The economic burden of abatement is distributed unevenly, with the highest costs borne by the United States (US$610-685 billion), the EU-27 (US$533-665 billion), and China (US$407-592 billion) by 2050.
• While lower global GDP growth does not significantly simplify the achievement of the 2°C target, it does reduce the percentage cost of attainment because abatement costs rise more slowly than GDP.
• High convergence in living standards between developed and developing nations increases the absolute and relative economic burden on developing countries and necessitates a greater reliance on future technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
• Implementing a carbon price to meet stabilisation targets leads to a significant shift in the energy mix, reducing the role of fossil fuels (particularly coal) and increasing the share of solar, biomass, nuclear, and fossil fuels equipped with CCS.

APA

Markandya, A., González-Eguino, M., Criqui, P., & Mima, S. (2012). Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201206270137091927882528.pdf

Chicago

Markandya, Anil, Mikel González-Eguino, Patrick Criqui, and Silvana Mima. Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2012. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201206270137091927882528.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markandya |first1=Anil |last2=González-Eguino |first2=Mikel |last3=Criqui |first3=Patrick |last4=Mima |first4=Silvana |title=Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=January 2012 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201206270137091927882528.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markandya2012low, author = {Markandya, Anil and González-Eguino, Mikel and Criqui, Patrick and Mima, Silvana}, title = {{Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2012}, month = jan, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/201206270137091927882528.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }