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228 documents from Basque Centre for Climate Change
LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS?
The agriculture and land sectors (AFOLU) contribute approximately 24% of total GHG emissions, but also sequester about one third of annual anthropogenic emissions. While technical potentials for mitigation are high—with some estimates suggesting up to 23.8 GtCO2e yr-1 through conservation and restoration—significant uncertainties remain regarding the persistence of carbon sinks and the practical implementation of large-scale removals. Achieving Paris Agreement goals requires a combination of reducing deforestation, sustainable land intensification, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, though these are often hindered by institutional, economic, and socio-cultural barriers rather than just technical limitations.
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Document type: Policy brief
Cost-effectiveness and incidence of alternative mechanisms for financing renewables
The study evaluates the impact of financing renewable energy through electricity surcharges versus alternative tax sources in Spain. Using a combined computable general equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation (MS) model, the authors find that electricity surcharges are regressive, disproportionately affecting low-income households and vulnerable groups such as retirees. While exemptions for producers protect industrial competitiveness, they exacerbate the burden on households. Conversely, financing through lump-sum transfers or value-added taxes (VAT) is found to be more effective in reducing regressive effects and safeguarding welfare for low-income groups without significantly harming overall economic output.
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Document type: Research paper
Traveling for happiness, moving to adapt: An agent-based perspective on population mobility
The paper proposes using agent-based modeling (ABM) to unify the study of tourism and migration under a single 'population mobility' framework. It highlights how both are driven by the pursuit of wellbeing and are increasingly influenced by global environmental change. The author details how ABM's ability to handle agent heterogeneity, internal decision-making complexity, and social interactions makes it ideal for simulating complex social-ecological systems. The discussion explores common challenges, such as the 'sense of invasion' felt by locals in mass tourism hubs like Venice and Barcelona, and the role of migration as a legitimate adaptation strategy to climate change. The paper concludes that a combined perspective can better address economic sustainability, cultural identity preservation, and the impacts of global environmental change on human movement.
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Document type: Research paper
Drivers of climate change opinion
The paper identifies 'Knowledge of climate change' and 'Belief in anthropogenic CC' as the primary predictors of climate change opinion, which are further modulated by 'Risk aversion' to determine policy acceptance. It highlights the role of traditional media in polarizing opinion and the influence of political and religious orientations on beliefs. The authors argue that developed nations often perceive climate risks as distant due to higher mitigation and adaptation capacities, whereas more vulnerable, less wealthy communities exhibit higher risk awareness.
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Document type: Research paper
“Forest accounting rules put EU’s climate credibility at risk” open letter signed by Maria Jose Sanz, Scientific Director of BC3, with other environmental scientists listed at the bottom of the article – BC3 Research
A group of environmental scientists warns that proposed EU forest accounting rules, which would allow policy-driven increases in harvesting to be included in the baseline, could hide up to 400 MtCO2/yr of emissions. They argue that any reduction in the forest sink is effectively a net increase in emissions and that failing to account for this would undermine the credibility of EU bioenergy accounting, contradict the Paris Agreement, and compromise the EU's alignment with IPCC 2°C trajectories.
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Document type: Statement
Forest accounting rules put EU’s climate credibility at risk
A group of environmental scientists warns that proposed EU forest accounting rules, which would allow increased harvesting to be included in the baseline, could hide up to 400 MtCO2/yr of emissions. They argue this approach undermines the credibility of bioenergy accounting, contradicts the Paris Agreement, and risks failure to meet the IPCC 2°C trajectory. The authors advocate for a robust baseline based on historical data and forest dynamics to ensure transparency and climate credibility.
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Document type: Statement
Forest accounting rules put EU’s climate credibility at risk
The document is an open letter from environmental scientists warning that proposed EU forest accounting rules could allow member states to hide the impact of policies that increase net emissions. The authors argue that including policy-driven harvest increases in the 'Forest Reference Level' baseline would effectively mask up to 400 MtCO2/yr of emissions, undermining the EU's 2030 climate targets, the credibility of bioenergy accounting, and the spirit of the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Statement
The Paris Agreement goes ahead, with or without Trump
The document asserts that the Paris Agreement is a universal and flexible framework essential for stabilizing global temperature increases below 2°C. It characterizes the U.S. decision to withdraw as an "historical mistake" that could increase future global temperature rises by up to 0.3°C and isolate the U.S. internationally. However, the authors note that a "domino effect" of other nations withdrawing has not occurred, as key players like China, the European Union, and India remain committed. The text highlights that the transition to clean energy is driven by economic opportunity, noting support from major U.S. companies, the divestment from coal by Blackrock, and the competitiveness of renewables, exemplified by subsidy-free auctions in Spain. Internal U.S. opposition is also noted, specifically from the governors of California, New York, and Washington.
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Document type: Statement
The Paris Agreement goes ahead, with or without Trump
The authors assert that the Paris Agreement's universal and flexible design allows it to persist despite the United States' withdrawal. While the US exit is described as a historical mistake that could increase global temperatures by up to 0.3°C, the authors note that key players like China, the EU, and India remain committed. They highlight that the transition to clean energy is driven by economic opportunities, with major US companies and financial institutions like Blackrock divesting from fossil fuels and supporting the agreement for the sake of stability. Additionally, internal US opposition from governors in California, New York, and Washington suggests a continued domestic effort to reduce emissions.
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Document type: Statement
El Acuerdo de París sigue adelante, con o sin Trump
The authors describe the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as a historical, economic, and geopolitical error that could slow global progress but may also act as a catalyst for other nations and US subnational entities to maintain climate commitments.
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Document type: Statement
El Acuerdo de París sigue adelante, con o sin Trump
The document asserts that the Paris Agreement's universal and flexible nature allows it to proceed without the United States. It characterizes the U.S. withdrawal as a historical, economic, and geopolitical error that ignores climate science and risks isolating the country. However, it notes that key actors like China, India, and the European Union remain committed, and that internal U.S. resistance from states like California, New York, and Washington, as well as support from major corporations, provides a counterweight to the federal decision.
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Document type: Statement
Towards successful adaptation: a checklist for the development of climate change adaptation plans
The authors develop a comprehensive checklist to guide the creation of climate change adaptation plans, addressing the lack of consistent metrics in adaptation tracking. The framework is organized into three major areas: Policy and Economy, Science and Learning, and Legitimacy. Within these, it evaluates components such as funding, institutional reliability, usable knowledge, monitoring, evaluation and reporting (MER), adaptive management, and equity. The goal is to move beyond simply documenting the existence of policies toward assessing their credibility and potential for successful implementation.
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Document type: Research paper
HOW DOES MODERN IRRIGATION INFLUENCE FARMERS’ VULNERABILITY TO EXTERNAL STRESSORS? THE CASE OF ITOIZ-CANAL DE NAVARRA
The study examines the impact of modern irrigation on farmer vulnerability in the Itoiz-Canal de Navarra region, identifying that small-scale diversified farmers are the most vulnerable to both climate and market stressors due to a lack of adaptive capacity, while intensive farmers are the least vulnerable.
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Document type: Policy brief
COP23: TECHNICAL PROFILE WITH RELEVANT POLITICAL SUPPORT
COP23 was intended as a technical summit to establish the Paris Agreement Rulebook, but achieved only modest progress on these rules. Key breakthroughs included a first-time agreement to address climate challenges in agriculture and the establishment of a Gender Action Plan and a Local Communities and Indigenous People’s Platform. The conference launched the Talanoa dialogue to accelerate action and increase ambition. While official negotiations were slow, strong political support was demonstrated by non-state actors and an alternative US delegation. Additionally, the 'Powering Past Coal' alliance was endorsed by 28 countries and regional actors, though Germany was notably absent from the pledge.
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Document type: Policy brief
THE POTENTIAL OF BEHAVIOURAL CHANGE FOR ACHIEVING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TARGETS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
The document argues that while behavioural change alone cannot meet the European Union's climate targets, it can significantly reduce the policy costs of deep decarbonisation. It identifies 16 behavioural options across food, mobility, and housing, estimating that gradual changes could reduce the mitigation burden by 20% to 25% without upfront investment. The brief highlights co-benefits such as improved public health and food security, and suggests that combining technological transformations with public awareness campaigns and targeted taxes is the most efficient path to mitigation.
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Document type: Policy brief
MECANISMOS PARA FINANCIAR LA PROMOCIÓN DE ENERGÍAS RENOVABLES. IMPACTOS EN LOS HOGARES Y LAS INDUSTRIAS
The document examines how financing renewable energy through electricity prices in Spain has increased costs for households and industries, particularly impacting low-income groups. It evaluates three alternative financing scenarios—government transfers, Value Added Tax (VAT) increases, and fuel tax increases—finding that transfers and VAT are more progressive and beneficial for industrial production than electricity price surcharges.
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Document type: Policy brief
Engaging the public with science in the Basque Country: On scientists’ experiences and perspectives
The document outlines scientists' views on science communication, identifying it as a social responsibility and highlighting face-to-face interaction as the most common method. It defines success in communication as providing positive value to the audience and identifies audience research, the communication of 'science-in-the-making', and interdisciplinary collaboration as critical success factors.
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Document type: Policy brief
The geographic distribution of the economic impact of climate finance
The research analyzes how climate finance investments generate economic value added not only in recipient countries but also in third countries through international trade, termed 'spill-overs'. Using a GMRIO model, the study finds that on average 28.6% of the total economic impact spills over to other countries. The ability to retain value added varies by country, with India and Brazil retaining around 80%, while Mexico and Indonesia retain no more than two thirds. The EU is the primary beneficiary of these spill-overs. The study also identifies that different types of climate actions produce varying levels of spill-overs: renewable energy technologies often generate high spill-overs (exceeding 35% for some), whereas forestry and coastal protection generate fewer than 20%. The authors suggest that donor countries may be influenced by these spill-over prospects when allocating funds, and recipient countries should improve industrial competitiveness to retain more economic gains.
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Document type: Research paper
Cambio Climático en el País Vasco: Impactos en la Salud y medidas de Adaptación
The document highlights that climate change adaptation in the Basque Country requires fluid dialogue across society and can be achieved through changes in habits and lifestyles. It notes that increased exposure to the natural environment has a positive impact on health and well-being, and that specific adaptation measures can enhance overall population resilience.
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Document type: Policy brief
Hiri-ikerketa BC3n: Klima-aldaketaren zientziak nola lagun dezakeen Hiri-Politika prestatzen
The document argues that cities are becoming primary actors in achieving climate mitigation and adaptation goals. It emphasizes that science provides essential support to local policymakers through first-hand information and the application of ad hoc methodologies. Case studies presented in the work demonstrate diverse opportunities for collaboration between scientific research and municipal-level policy, suggesting that the urban scale is an effective level for establishing multi-level links between these fields.
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Document type: Briefing