LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS?

The agriculture and land sectors (AFOLU) contribute approximately 24% of total GHG emissions, but also sequester about one third of annual anthropogenic emissions. While technical potentials for mitigation are high—with some estimates suggesting up to 23.8 GtCO2e yr-1 through conservation and restoration—significant uncertainties remain regarding the persistence of carbon sinks and the practical implementation of large-scale removals. Achieving Paris Agreement goals requires a combination of reducing deforestation, sustainable land intensification, and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, though these are often hindered by institutional, economic, and socio-cultural barriers rather than just technical limitations.

• The agriculture and land sectors (AFOLU) are responsible for roughly 24% of global greenhouse gas emissions, split evenly between land use and agriculture.
• Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from 120 countries include land-related reductions; if fully implemented, these would account for 10%-30% of total emission reductions by 2030.
• IPCC scenarios for limiting warming to 2°C and 1.5°C rely on large-scale greenhouse gas removals from the atmosphere, starting as early as the 2020s.
• Technical potential for land use mitigation is high, with some research suggesting a maximum potential of 23.8 GtCO2e yr-1 through restoration and improved management, significantly higher than previous estimates of 11.3 GtCO2eq yr-1.
• The effectiveness of land use mitigation is constrained by institutional, economic, and socio-cultural barriers, as well as uncertainties regarding the future resilience of biosphere carbon sinks.
• Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies include both natural solutions, such as afforestation and soil carbon enhancement via biochar, and technological approaches like bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture and storage.

APA

Sanz, M. J. (2018). LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS? Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180921095135953005234.pdf

Chicago

Sanz, María J. LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS? Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2018. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180921095135953005234.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sanz |first1=María J. |title=LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS? |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=2018 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180921095135953005234.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sanz2018land, author = {Sanz, María J.}, title = {{LAND USE MITIGATION: CAN IT REALISTICALLY CONTRIBUTE TO FILL THE GAP TO ACHIEVE THE 1.5 AND 2 ºC GOALS?}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2018}, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20180921095135953005234.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }