Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper analyzes projections for Africa's fossil fuel carbon emissions up to 2063, comparing a 'Current Path' with a 'Combined scenario' that incorporates ambitious development improvements. It identifies a small number of key countries whose energy policies will determine the continent's overall contribution to global emissions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa between 2023 and 2043. The scenario forecasts that a strategic push toward industrialization will drive structural economic transformation, increase GDP, generate millions of jobs, and reduce extreme poverty and income inequality across the continent.

This research paper outlines a forecasting scenario for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) using the International Futures (IFs) platform. Starting in 2026, the scenario models the impact of tariff reductions and productivity increases across Africa, noting a specific 15-year phase-out period for G6 countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). The goal is to simulate how the agreement can boost intra-African trade and shift economies toward higher-value production.

The March 2026 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the outcomes of the 39th African Union (AU) Summit, the composition and normative challenges of the Peace and Security Council (PSC), and the adoption of a new memorandum of understanding to coordinate the Africa Standby Force (ASF).

This briefing note by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines how the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU) can collaborate to reform global governance, specifically the UN Security Council (UNSC), amidst a period of systemic rupture and geopolitical fragmentation.

The February 2026 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the declining influence of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the gap between AU normative frameworks and electoral realities, the limited impact of informal consultations on post-coup transitions, and the critical economic necessity of improving water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) infrastructure across Africa.

This end-of-year commentary by Ember synthesises key findings from 2025 regarding the global energy transition, highlighting how solar and wind power have begun to outpace global electricity demand growth and reshape energy dynamics through the rise of "electrotech" and battery storage.

The 'Déclaration du Sommet des Peuples vers la COP30' is a statement issued by a gathering of over 70,000 people from diverse social movements in Belém do Pará, Brazil, in November 2025. The document identifies the capitalist mode of production and transnational corporations as the primary drivers of the climate crisis and calls for a systemic transition based on popular sovereignty, feminist ethics, and the protection of common goods.

The 'Final declaration of the Peoples’ Summit towards COP30' is a statement issued by a gathering of over 70,000 people in Belém do Pará, Brazil, in November 2025. The document identifies the capitalist mode of production and transnational corporations as the primary drivers of the climate crisis and calls for a 'just, sovereign and popular transition' based on the recognition of common goods, ancestral knowledge, and feminist justice.

The 'Declaración de la Cumbre de los pueblos hacia la COP30' is a statement issued by the People's Summit, which gathered over 70,000 representatives of diverse social movements in Belém do Pará, Brazil, from November 12 to 16, 2025. The document identifies the capitalist mode of production and transnational corporations as the primary drivers of the climate crisis and calls for a transition based on popular sovereignty, feminist justice, and the protection of common goods rather than market-based solutions.

This research paper analyzes the resurgence of 'resources-for-security' deals in Africa, driven by the global demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) for green energy and military technology. It contrasts three primary models: Russia's use of private military companies (PMCs) for mining rights, the US's transactional 'peace-brokering' approach to secure supply chains, and China's 'infrastructure-for-resources' strategy via the Belt and Road Initiative. The paper argues that while these deals offer short-term security or development gains, they often reinforce dependency and authoritarianism, mirroring colonial and Cold War extractive patterns.

This report by Ember analyses Chinese customs data to demonstrate a significant increase in solar panel imports into Africa in the 12 months leading up to June 2025. The analysis suggests a structural trend toward increased solar adoption across the continent, potentially driven by distributed solar, which could significantly expand electricity supply and reduce reliance on imported diesel.

This research paper examines Turkey's strategic efforts to secure critical raw materials (CRMs) in Africa to support its domestic industrial goals in defence, electric vehicles, and renewables. It analyzes Turkey's diverse engagement modalities—ranging from direct extraction to integrated industrial hubs and security-linked partnerships—and proposes a trilateral cooperation framework involving the European Union (EU) and African nations to align standards and enhance supply chain resilience.

This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the role of Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) in Africa, focusing on the food sector. It argues that while African governments have set ambitious adaptation targets, governance barriers, financial constraints, and a lack of meaningful integration of local and Indigenous knowledge hinder effectiveness. The document advocates for decentralised finance, inclusive governance, and robust monitoring systems to ensure climate resilience is sustainable and context-specific.

This report from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the functionality of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) subcommittees, examines the transition to constitutional order in Guinea, analyzes the decline of international humanitarian aid to Africa, and proposes strategies for enhancing continental maritime security, specifically through the Combined Maritime Task Force for the Gulf of Guinea.

This policy brief examines the role of Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) in Africa, highlighting how centering decision-making at the community level can address the severe economic and social costs of climate change. While many African nations have integrated adaptation goals into national policies, the document identifies significant governance and financial barriers that hinder the effective implementation of LLA, particularly within food systems.

The April 2025 Peace & Security Council Report by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the African Union's (AU) peace and security architecture, focusing on the second term of PAPS Commissioner Bankole Adeoye, regional divisions in North Africa, the new AUSSOM mission in Somalia, and the challenges of mediation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

An address by Dirco Deputy Minister Alvin Botes detailing South Africa's strategic foreign policy approach amidst a shifting geopolitical landscape. The speech emphasizes non-alignment, the role of multilateralism through BRICS+ and the G20, and the necessity of addressing regional security and climate change to protect national interests.

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs analyzes UN voting patterns on Ukraine as of February 2025. It highlights a divergence between European demands for Russian accountability and the Trump administration's shift toward de-escalation, alongside a more strategic, pragmatic approach by Global South nations seeking diplomatic mediation over binary confrontation.

This report summarizes a February 2025 policy dialogue event organized by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS). The discussion focused on the African Union's (AU) ability to reposition Africa within a shifting global order characterized by geopolitical disruptions, including the 'Trump 2.0' era. The panel identified critical barriers to Africa's strategic positioning, such as financial dependency on external donors, a disconnect between aging leadership and a young population, and a fragmented approach to global diplomacy. The report advocates for institutional reforms within the AU, a shift from focusing on historical reparations toward immediate economic and security stability, and the adoption of a unified foreign policy to increase the continent's global influence.