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The document analyzes China's dominance in Africa's critical minerals landscape, highlighting its role as a primary investor and buyer. It argues that while Africa's reserves are vital for the global energy transition, the current model of exporting raw materials without local processing limits socioeconomic benefits and risks environmental degradation. The brief recommends that African governments pursue strategic partnerships, invest in research and development, and build energy infrastructure to move up the value chain, while urging international partners to support technology transfer and local capacity building.

The document analyzes the global race to secure critical minerals, detailing the subsidy-driven strategies of the US, EU, UK, and Canada, and the dominant market position of China in battery production. It argues that African nations can leverage their mineral wealth to drive sustainable structural transformation by adopting a 'climate-resilient developmental regionalism' framework under the AfCFTA, which integrates climate adaptation and mitigation with regional industrialization.

The policy brief argues that African countries face a crisis of 'debt that is too expensive' rather than too much debt, which hinders human development and the energy transition. It proposes a Cost of Capital Commission composed of high-level experts to recommend reforms to credit rating agency methodologies, Basel III macro-prudential regulations, and the integration of natural capital and remittances into debt sustainability analyses.

The policy brief argues that the G20's Common Framework for Debt Treatments (CF) is operationally deficient, leading to protracted restructuring processes for low-income countries. It recommends that the South African G20 presidency prioritize the suspension of debt service payments upon CF requests, the expansion of climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) to all low- and middle-income countries, and the creation of G20 working groups to explore market-based solutions—such as a modern 'Brady Plan'—and statutory reforms to ensure private sector participation in debt workouts.

The document argues that South Africa should use its 2025 G20 presidency to address IMF governance and sovereign debt issues. It suggests the IMF needs formal operating procedures for 'new' issues like climate change and gender to avoid opaque, ad hoc management. Regarding debt, it critiques the Common Framework for being too time-consuming and recommends a more holistic approach to development finance to meet climate and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) needs.

The document argues that the meat and dairy industry employs misleading narratives—including claims about food security, nutritional necessity, and 'regenerative' farming—to obstruct climate action and maintain high production levels. It contends that these tactics distract from the urgent need to reduce methane emissions and shift toward plant-rich diets to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The document examines Zambia's water security challenges, noting that despite abundant freshwater resources, the country faces crises driven by climate change, population growth, and poor governance. It highlights the severe impact of contaminated water on public health, the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to droughts, and environmental degradation caused by mining pollution and deforestation. The brief argues that current legal frameworks, such as the Water Act 198, are insufficient, particularly regarding groundwater and shared watercourses. Key recommendations include establishing a National Water Resources Authority, investing in irrigation and infrastructure maintenance, and addressing gender inequalities in water access.

The policy brief argues that the African mining sector is hindered by political and institutional lock-ins, specifically the slow ratification of AMDC statutes. It proposes integrating strategic foresight—a systematic approach to anticipating future trends—into the AMDC's four-pillar mandate to move from reactive to proactive governance. The authors advocate for a 'foresight-led social contract' to ensure mineral wealth benefits local communities and supports the green energy transition. Key recommendations include establishing an anticipatory governance unit, reforming financial architectures to reduce debt dependency, and coordinating regional responses to transnational risks such as deep-sea mining and Global North competition.

The report tracks the shift in China-Africa energy cooperation from large-scale infrastructure and thermal power projects toward 'small and beautiful' green initiatives. It highlights a growing alignment between China's commitment to stop funding overseas coal-fired projects and Africa's strategic priorities for climate finance, renewable energy access, and resilient infrastructure. While China offers technological and financial aid, the report notes that some African priorities, such as critical minerals, remain insufficiently addressed.

The document examines how the competition between the US, China, and Russia affects African states, noting a shift toward non-alignment and the diversification of international relations to avoid becoming geopolitical pawns. It argues that African agency can be strengthened by empowering the African Union (AU), leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and demanding partnerships based on mutual benefit rather than great-power rivalry. The Lobito Corridor is cited as a model where competing interests can coexist to provide tangible regional benefits.

FSD Africa is implementing a program to promote the adoption of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) across Africa, focusing on adapting the global framework to local contexts. The initiative includes capacity building, the creation of the African Natural Capital Alliance (ANCA), and strategic outreach to G20 and sovereign stakeholders. A key partnership with FirstRand has involved piloting the TNFD framework through nature-risk assessments in the agricultural and extractive industries and evaluating organizational readiness for disclosure.

The analysis finds that human-caused climate change has significantly increased the frequency of dangerous nighttime temperatures globally, affecting billions of people. Using the Climate Shift Index, the report quantifies additional nights above 18°C, 20°C, and 25°C, noting that these temperatures disrupt sleep and increase risks of cardiovascular conditions and mortality. The most severe impacts are observed in tropical regions and urban areas due to heat island effects, with specific cities in India, Indonesia, and Africa experiencing an additional month or more of extreme nighttime heat.

The report examines benefit-sharing mechanisms (BSMs) in African carbon projects, highlighting the need for transparency, fairness, and community agency to attract high-integrity investment. It categorizes projects by risk—identifying community land-based projects as the highest risk—and proposes five core principles for best-practice BSMs. The authors argue that current low carbon prices fail to cover the costs of robust community engagement and call for regulatory frameworks and commercial financing tailored to the African context.

The report examines the strategic importance of critical raw materials (CRMs) for OACPS member states, highlighting their significant global production shares in minerals like cobalt, platinum-group metals, and manganese. It identifies a critical gap in local beneficiation capacities, noting that most CRMs are exported as raw ores, which results in lost economic value. The document analyzes the impact of new industrial policies from the US, EU, and China—such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Critical Raw Materials Act—which emphasize reshoring and 'friendshoring' and may conflict with OACPS industrialization goals. It concludes that OACPS countries must move beyond extractive 'pit-to-port' models through regional cooperation, strategic partnerships, and robust regulatory frameworks to maximize socio-economic benefits while managing environmental and social risks.

The document examines the gap between high popular support for democracy in Africa and the low satisfaction with its actual implementation. It highlights a trend of disputed elections and popularly celebrated coups as symptoms of leadership failure and the inability of democratic systems to provide basic socio-economic rights. Using examples from Zimbabwe and Gabon, it argues that when elections fail to reflect the will of the people or improve living conditions, the stability of democratic institutions is threatened.

The document examines the tension between African developmental goals for critical minerals and the geopolitical priorities of external powers, specifically the US-led G7 and China. It highlights China's early-mover advantage in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe, while noting that G7 counter-initiatives often prioritize supply chain security over African local value addition. The authors argue that African nations must develop comprehensive national and regional strategies to avoid repeating colonial extraction patterns and to leverage their resources for sustainable industrialisation.

Japan is transitioning its Africa strategy from Official Development Assistance (ODA) toward private sector-led investment, specifically targeting critical minerals and green energy. This shift is driven by strategic competition with China, particularly regarding supply chain security for rare earth elements and the G7's desire to provide alternatives to Chinese infrastructure loans. While the Japanese government is actively promoting this 'business-based' approach through initiatives like the Green Growth Initiative for Africa and the Minerals Security Partnership, the transition is hindered by high risk perception among Japanese companies.

Africa possesses vast untapped renewable energy resources, including 60% of global solar resources, yet accounts for only 1.6% of global installed renewable capacity. The continent faces significant barriers to energy transition, including a massive financing gap—requiring $557 billion by 2030—and a heavy reliance on imported technologies, with Africa contributing less than 1% of global clean energy patent applications. While the region holds 40% of global critical mineral reserves essential for green technologies, it primarily serves as a raw material supplier. The document advocates for strengthened partnerships with the G20 and Global North to improve climate finance, facilitate technology transfer, and develop local green value chains to move beyond the export of primary commodities.

The document outlines the critical role of copper in India's infrastructure and clean energy transition, predicting a potential doubling of demand by 2030. It recommends a multi-pronged approach including diversifying primary supply through strategic partnerships with countries like Chile and Australia, reforming trade duties to support domestic smelting, and rationalizing the GST on copper scrap to promote a circular economy.

The report evaluates how nature-related risks impact business profits and credit losses in five African banking systems. It finds that an 'orderly transition' aligned with the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) minimizes financial risks, whereas a 'disorderly transition' can lead to significant profit losses and increased credit losses, particularly in agriculture and mining. The analysis highlights that nature-related risks in these sectors are comparable in scale to climate-related risks in emissions-intensive sectors.