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Evolving Multilateralism: BRICS, the EU and Responses to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The document analyzes the 'structural disjuncture' between the European Union's bilateral approach to international relations and the BRICS bloc's pursuit of an inclusive, South-South multilateral model. It argues that BRICS challenges the EU's historical hegemony in global governance, economic power, and trade policies. While the Russia-Ukraine war has further polarized the EU and BRICS, the author suggests opportunities for cooperation on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and the energy transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation
Ember critiques the TYNDP 2024 storylines for having low electrification levels and unrealistic fossil fuel price projections. The organization argues that the 'Green Ambition' (GA) and 'Distributed Energy' (DE) scenarios are not fully self-consistent and fail to align with 1.5C pathways. Ember recommends introducing a higher-ambition scenario with at least 90% emissions reduction by 2040 and urges the removal of fossil methane from heating and transport by 2050.
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Document type: Report
Human rights abuses and anti-democratic disinformation are hallmarks of Wagner and other mercenary groups in Africa
The research paper examines the role of the Wagner Group and other private military contractors (PMCs) in Africa, highlighting their involvement in human rights abuses, the smuggling of mineral resources to fund the Russian state, and the use of disinformation campaigns to undermine democratic processes and Western influence. It notes that PMCs provide 'plausible deniability' for states to conduct criminal warfare and argues that the African Union's failure to implement existing anti-mercenary frameworks hampers regional peace and security.
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Document type: Research paper
Feeding Resilience: Climate Change and Food Insecurity Impacts on U.S. National Security Project
The report identifies a critical policy gap where climate change, food insecurity, and national security are often addressed in silos. It argues that while the U.S. intelligence and military communities recognize these as top security concerns, current interventions remain focused on immediate humanitarian aid rather than long-term community resilience. The document recommends scaling up R&D, synchronizing agricultural emission cuts with food supply needs, and integrating geopolitical risks into strategic military and government planning to prevent global instability and conflict.
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Document type: Report
No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels
The conflict in Sudan, which escalated in April 2023 between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's army and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is driven by a struggle for power and control over resources. This instability threatens regional security, specifically regarding the Nile River dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and risks destabilising fragile neighbours like Chad and the Central African Republic. Internationally, the crisis intersects with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 tourism goals and Russia's strategic interests, including a proposed naval base in Port Sudan and gold extraction by the Wagner Group. The author argues that lasting peace requires a long-term approach involving power-sharing and the gradual integration of armed groups into the national army.
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Document type: Research paper
Ending Tactical Nuclear Weapons
The report examines the history and risks of tactical nuclear weapons, arguing that their perceived utility in battlefield scenarios is outweighed by the danger of lowering the nuclear threshold and triggering unpredictable escalation. It details the rise of these weapons during the Cold War and their subsequent decline through treaties like the INF Treaty and unilateral actions such as the U.S. Presidential Nuclear Initiatives. The authors warn that current geopolitical tensions and debates over new capabilities, such as the U.S. SLCM-N, threaten to reverse this progress. The document recommends that the P5 nations and the United Nations establish pathways to freeze or reduce tactical nuclear arsenals to maintain global strategic stability.
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Document type: Report
Take-back Trickery: An Investigation into Clothing Take-back Schemes
An investigation using airtag trackers on 21 items of good-quality clothing submitted to ten fashion brands in the UK, France, Belgium, and Germany found that these take-back schemes often fail to prioritize reuse. Findings show items in excellent condition were downcycled, destroyed, or shipped to African markets where they often become waste, while others remained stagnant in warehouses. The report argues these schemes provide a false sense of environmental responsibility and often encourage further consumption through discounts, calling for stronger EU legislation and extended producer responsibility.
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Document type: Executive summary
The New Geopolitics of Mineral Supply Chains: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries
The document examines the 'new geopolitics' of mineral supply chains, driven by the energy transition and geopolitical instability. It highlights the increasing demand for critical minerals—which the IEA expects to quadruple by 2040—and the resulting shift by industrialised states, such as the EU, to reduce dependencies on single sources like China. Given that significant deposits of these 'green' minerals are located in Africa, the text explores how African economies can leverage this shift to maximise their own benefits as the world moves away from fossil fuels.
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Document type: Research paper
Key Biodefense Elements in the FY2024 President’s Budget Request
The briefing details the FY2024 budget requests for U.S. biodefense, highlighting significant increases in pandemic preparedness funding for HHS and the launch of new initiatives like the Public Health Emergency Fund. It notes a mixed trend in the Department of Defense, where some biosecurity research programs are ending while others receive increases. The document also examines international biosecurity efforts through the State Department and DTRA, while noting budget cuts to the Biological Threat Reduction Program.
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Document type: Briefing
Joint NGO Letter re. EC recommendation on methane & energy contracts
The document argues that because a significant portion of the EU's methane footprint originates from imported energy, the European Commission should leverage new energy contracts to mandate methane mitigation. It suggests that EU-based companies in joint ventures abroad should be encouraged to adopt best practices for reducing emissions from production operations outside EU borders.
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Document type: Statement
Finland’s Accession to NATO: An Opportunity to Bolster Europe’s CBRN Defense
Finland's integration into NATO and its role as the host of the rescEU CBRN strategic reserve are presented as critical enhancements to European security. The paper highlights Finland's 'comprehensive security approach' and its long-standing leadership in biosecurity, chemical weapons non-proliferation, and nuclear safety as assets that bolster the alliance's deterrence capabilities, particularly given Finland's 1,340 km border with Russia.
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Document type: Research paper
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Narrative Report: Germany
The report identifies four primary categories of Russian disinformation in Germany: civilian targeting, escalation rhetoric, demoralisation, and conspiracies. These narratives aim to weaken German support for Ukraine, exacerbate societal divisions, and undermine the contemporary security order. While some narratives do not resonate with the majority of the population, the report warns that the adoption of conspiratorial talking points by members of the German Parliament and the convergence of Kremlin narratives with extremist movements like the Reichsbürger pose risks to civic integrity.
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Document type: Executive summary
Take-back trickery
The report reveals a significant gap between the sustainability claims of fast fashion brands and the reality of their take-back schemes. By tracking 21 high-quality items across Europe, the investigation found that many items were downcycled, destroyed, or shipped to African countries where they often end up in landfills, rather than being reused or recycled into new clothing.
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Document type: Executive summary
Pedal to the Metal
The report finds that while there is a growing shift toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, the transition is too slow to meet IEA Net Zero by 2050 targets. Asia, particularly India and China, remains the hub for new coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) capacity. This continued investment in carbon-intensive technology, alongside persistent global overcapacity, creates a significant stranded asset risk estimated up to US$ 554 billion.
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Document type: Report
Financing a 1.5˚C-Aligned Transition
The document establishes a consensus across multiple energy models, including the IEA NZE and IPCC pathways, that no new oil and gas fields should be developed to meet the 1.5 target. It argues that oil and gas production must decline by at least 65% by 2050 from 2020 levels. The brief asserts that the energy crisis in Europe caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine does not justify new fossil fuel production, as existing capacity and demand reduction can meet needs. It highlights a significant investment gap in renewables, noting that annual solar and wind investments must reach USD 830 billion by 2030 to bridge a USD 450 billion annual gap. Finally, it recommends that financial institutions cease financing new oil and gas projects and push for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Another Step Toward a World Without Chemical Weapons
The U.S. Department of Defense announced on June 22, 2023, that the final remnants of chemical weapons at the Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado have been destroyed. This process involved the destruction of 780,000 mustard agent-filled munitions. The U.S. now has only one remaining site, the Blue Grass Army Depot in Kentucky, where destruction is ongoing. The author argues that this compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) serves as a critical signal against the use of such weapons, contrasting U.S. actions with the illegal use of chemical weapons by Syria and Russia.
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Document type: Statement
Setting the Pace: The economic case for managing the decline of oil and gas production in Canada
The report asserts that the Canadian oil and gas sector is ill-prepared for an inevitable drop in global demand, which is being accelerated by climate action and shifts in energy markets. It argues that 'business as usual' is no longer viable and recommends that the federal government implement a four-part strategy: strengthening climate policies and the Sustainable Jobs Action Plan, supporting subnational and Indigenous economic diversification, aligning fiscal policy by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies, and exploring federal tools to end production expansion.
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Document type: Report
Why Ukraine’s reconstruction must be green
The author contends that Ukraine's recovery should not be a return to pre-war status but a comprehensive green transformation. This includes decentralizing the energy grid through wind and solar power to mitigate the impact of Russian attacks, modernizing agriculture to protect fertile chernozem soils, and aligning with the European Green Deal to accelerate EU membership. The text highlights the severe environmental damage caused by the invasion, including the Kakhovka Dam collapse and forest destruction, as urgent drivers for a sustainable reconstruction strategy.
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Document type: Research paper
Feeding Resilience
The document outlines the interconnected risks of climate change, food insecurity, and national security, specifically focusing on how these factors drive instability in the Horn of Africa. It argues that food insecurity acts as both a byproduct and a driver of conflict, creating opportunities for violent extremist organizations like al-Shabab to gain influence. Using Ethiopia as a case study, the briefing highlights the impact of drought, floods, and interstate disputes over resources, while noting that the U.S. national security strategy recognizes global food systems as being under threat from climate events and geopolitical conflicts.
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Document type: Briefing
Destruction of Ukraine's Nova Kakhovka Dam Marks Catastrophic Turn
The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine has triggered a massive humanitarian and environmental crisis, causing widespread flooding, infrastructure loss, and contamination of the Dnipro River with sewage, chemicals, and fuels. The IISD highlights unprecedented long-term risks to biodiversity in the Kakhovka reservoir, the Dnipro Estuary, and the Black Sea coastal region. Beyond the dam collapse, the document notes the broader impact of Russia's invasion, including a 29.1 percent decline in Ukraine's GDP and threats to global food security, the clean energy transition, and multilateralism.
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Document type: Statement