Pedal to the Metal

The July 2023 report 'Pedal to the Metal' by Global Energy Monitor assesses the global iron and steel plant fleet, highlighting a critical gap between current capacity developments and the decarbonization targets required for net-zero emissions by 2050. While there is a growing shift toward Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology, the continued expansion of coal-based Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) capacity, particularly in Asia, threatens to lock in high emissions and create significant stranded asset risks.

• The global steel industry is not on track to meet the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario, which requires 53% of steelmaking capacity to use EAF technology by 2050. Current development plans are projected to result in only 32% of total capacity using EAF by 2050.
• Global steelmaking overcapacity remains a persistent issue, with the OECD reporting a 26% global excess capacity (632 million tonnes) in 2022. Capacity utilization rates for the top producers fell from 75% in 2021 to 72% in 2022.
• Asia is the primary hub for new steelmaking capacity, accounting for 75% of capacity under development and 99% of new BF-BOF developments. China and India together represent 55% of all new steelmaking developments.
• India has surpassed China as the world's largest developer of new coal-based (BF-BOF) capacity, holding 40% of such capacity under development, compared to China's 39%.
• The steel industry faces a potential stranded asset risk of up to US$ 554 billion as countries pursue carbon neutrality while continuing to build coal-based BF-BOF capacity. Between 2021 and 2022, BF-BOF assets under development in countries with net-zero commitments increased by approximately 7% (36 mtpa).
• Steel sector CO2 emissions have averaged approximately 3.7 Gt per year since 2019. In 2022, China accounted for approximately 60% of these emissions, with India accounting for 10%.
• A significant portion of the existing coal-based blast furnace fleet will reach the end of its working life by 2030, specifically 1,090 Mt (73% of the fleet), necessitating decisions on retirement or refurbishment.
• The war in Ukraine caused a 71% drop in Ukrainian steel production (15 Mt) from 2021 to 2022, with approximately 12 mtpa of capacity—30% of the country's total—shut down entirely.
• While DRI ironmaking capacity is growing and gaining a larger global share, much of the development is in India (18 mtpa), where coal-based DRI production leads to high CO2 emissions intensity for EAF steel production.
• Corporate commitment to decarbonization is lagging; of the 20 companies with the largest shares of global steel production capacity, less than half (45%) have concrete plans to reach net zero by 2050.

APA

Swalec, C., & Grigsby-Schulte, A. (2023). Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf

Chicago

Swalec, Caitlin, and Astrid Grigsby-Schulte. Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor, 2023. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swalec |first1=Caitlin |last2=Grigsby-Schulte |first2=Astrid |title=Pedal to the Metal |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=July 2023 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swalec2023pedal, author = {Swalec, Caitlin and Grigsby-Schulte, Astrid}, title = {{Pedal to the Metal}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }