Pedal to the Metal

The report finds that while there is a growing shift toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, the transition is too slow to meet IEA Net Zero by 2050 targets. Asia, particularly India and China, remains the hub for new coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) capacity. This continued investment in carbon-intensive technology, alongside persistent global overcapacity, creates a significant stranded asset risk estimated up to US$ 554 billion.

• The global steel industry is not progressing fast enough toward the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario, which requires 53% of steelmaking capacity to use EAF technology by 2050. Current development plans would result in only 32% of total capacity using EAF by 2050.
• Global steelmaking overcapacity is a persistent issue, with the OECD reporting 26% global excess capacity (632 million tonnes) in 2022. Capacity utilization for the top producers fell from 75% in 2021 to 72% in 2022.
• Asia is the primary center for new steelmaking capacity, accounting for 75% of capacity under development. Specifically, Asia is responsible for 99% of new BF-BOF developments.
• India has overtaken China as the world's largest developer of new coal-based BF-BOF capacity, holding 40% of such capacity under development, compared to China's 39%.
• The steel industry faces a potential stranded asset risk of up to US$ 554 billion due to the continued construction of BF-BOF capacity in countries with net-zero commitments. Between 2021 and 2022, BF-BOF assets under development in these countries grew by approximately 7% (36 mtpa).
• Direct CO2 emissions from the global iron and steel industry have averaged approximately 3.7 Gt per year since 2019. In 2022, China accounted for about 60% of these emissions, and India accounted for 10%.
• A significant portion of the existing coal-based blast furnace fleet will reach the end of its working life by 2030, specifically 1,090 Mt (73% of the fleet), necessitating decisions on retirement or refurbishment.
• Corporate commitment to net-zero is lagging; among the 20 companies with the largest shares of global steel production capacity, only 45% have concrete plans to reach net zero by 2050.

APA

Swalec, C., & Grigsby-Schulte, A. (2023). Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf

Chicago

Swalec, Caitlin, and Astrid Grigsby-Schulte. Pedal to the Metal. Global Energy Monitor, 2023. https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Swalec |first1=Caitlin |last2=Grigsby-Schulte |first2=Astrid |title=Pedal to the Metal |publisher=Global Energy Monitor |date=July 2023 |url=https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{swalec2023pedal, author = {Swalec, Caitlin and Grigsby-Schulte, Astrid}, title = {{Pedal to the Metal}}, institution = {Global Energy Monitor}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://globalenergymonitor.org/sites/default/files/migration/reports/GEM_SteelPlants2023_11.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }