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The report examines Mozambique's development prospects through 2040, arguing that while natural gas reserves offer significant economic potential, they are not a 'panacea' for poverty reduction. Using the International Futures (IF) model, the authors analyze a 'Current Trajectory' and several alternative scenarios. They find that without concerted investment in human capital—specifically health, education, and agriculture—and improvements in governance, the absolute number of people in extreme poverty is projected to remain nearly stagnant at approximately 19 million by 2040, despite GDP growth. The report advocates for an 'Integrated Development Boost' across multiple sectors to achieve inclusive growth, while warning that a 'Stagnated Development' scenario involving governance decline and gas production delays could lead to a 61% increase in extreme poverty.

The Eastern Arc Mountains in Tanzania and Kenya have lost approximately 70% of their original forest cover due to deforestation and degradation. Despite a comprehensive legislative framework and significant donor funding—including $75 million for REDD+ activities in Tanzania between 2009 and 2014—governance remains ineffective. Key drivers include high population growth and a heavy reliance on biomass for energy, with Dar es Salaam residents using over 1,900 tonnes of charcoal daily. The document argues that while participatory forest management through Local Authority and Village Land Forest Reserves shows promise, success is hindered by poor land tenure, lack of economic alternatives to charcoal, and insufficient state capacity. It recommends strengthening the science-policy interface, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and increasing resource allocation for state forestry agencies.

The document examines artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in Tanzania as a critical but under-governed source of employment and income. It argues that while the sector provides a vital livelihood for approximately 1.5 million people, it is plagued by severe health and safety risks, specifically mercury poisoning and pit collapses, and environmental degradation such as deforestation. The author contends that current legislation, specifically the 2010 Mining Act, prioritizes large-scale mining (LSM) and creates bureaucratic and financial barriers that marginalize artisanal miners. To harness the sector's potential, the paper recommends lowering licensing costs, improving geological information access, and implementing context-sensitive technology rollouts, such as mercury-recycling retorts, through partnerships between the government, private sector, and international organizations.

The paper examines the gap between Tanzania's high agricultural growth potential and the persistent poverty of its smallholder farmers. It analyzes the role of the Tanzanian Investment Centre (TIC), the impact of land tenure insecurity, and the potential of 'mega-PPPs' like the Southern Agriculture Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) to drive inclusive development. The author argues that while policies exist to stimulate investment, structural bottlenecks in taxation, infrastructure, and land rights hinder smallholders from moving beyond subsistence farming into commercial value chains.

The paper examines Tanzania's strategic potential as a maritime hub, focusing on the Dar es Salaam Port and the Central and Dar es Salaam corridors. It highlights significant infrastructure deficits, particularly in the rail sector, and evaluates the role of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and foreign direct investment (FDI) in bridging the finance gap. The author argues that while port upgrades are progressing, the dilapidated state of railways undermines regional competitiveness. The document concludes with recommendations to prioritise the repair of existing narrow-gauge railways, improve PPP management, and implement targeted strategies to ensure that infrastructure investments translate into local skills transfer and employment.

Tanzania possesses estimated natural gas reserves of roughly 60 TCF, with the potential to generate up to $6 billion in annual revenue. While the country has established formal governance frameworks, including the Petroleum Act and the Tanzania Extractive Industries Transparency and Accountability Act, the paper argues that the actual impact on development depends on the political will to combat 'grand corruption' and the ability of civil society to hold the ruling coalition accountable. The author warns that windfall rents could incentivize elite predation and weaken the state's incentive to maintain a broad tax base, potentially destabilizing the political equilibrium.

The document examines the governance of Africa's extractive sectors, arguing that while the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) provides a valuable multi-stakeholder framework for revenue transparency, it must be complemented by national laws and regional cooperation to ensure true accountability. It highlights the gap between revenue disclosure and social spending, the challenges of beneficial ownership transparency, and the impact of political will on implementation. Case studies of Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia illustrate the varied success of institutionalising transparency and the persistent issues of reporting delays and exclusionary governance.

The document outlines a series of recommendations to strengthen the draft 2017 Environmental Regulations in Kenya, focusing on expanding definitions of cumulative impacts, enhancing public participation, and ensuring more rigorous oversight of environmental audits and licenses.

The document analyzes the persistent land-use conflicts between farmers and pastoralists in Tanzania, specifically focusing on the Pawaga division. It identifies historical evictions, 'green grabbing' for conservation, large-scale agricultural investments like SAGCOT, and a biased legal framework as primary drivers of hostility. The author argues that Tanzania's formal land dispute machinery is inadequate and often politicized, failing to protect pastoralist rights. As an alternative, the paper highlights a successful pilot project by the Tanzania Natural Resource Forum (TNRF) that established a coalition of farmers and pastoralists in Pawaga to resolve disputes through dialogue and joint bylaws.

The document examines the governance of marine and coastal resources in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), emphasizing the need for integrated coastal management (ICM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) to balance economic growth with biodiversity conservation. It highlights the role of marine protected areas (MPAs) and locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) in securing ecosystem services and supporting livelihoods. The author argues that for the 'Blue Economy' to be sustainable, conservation must be integrated into development agendas through economic valuations of natural capital and inclusive, community-based management to avoid 'ocean grabbing' and ensure equitable benefit-sharing.

The document examines the prevalence and impact of illegal blast fishing in Tanzania, noting it is the only African country where the practice occurs on a large scale. It details the ecological destruction of coral reefs, the link between blast fishing and organised crime, and the failures of current legal enforcement. The author proposes a comprehensive strategy involving community co-management, stricter judicial penalties, and the integration of reef conservation into national development and climate adaptation plans.

The report argues that while vertical economic inequality is at an all-time high globally, horizontal inequality (inequality between groups) has declined significantly over the last 30 years. It finds that horizontal inequalities—particularly economic and political disparities affecting deprived groups—are stronger predictors of armed conflict than vertical inequalities. The authors emphasize that perceived inequality often diverges from objective data and is a critical driver of violence. While political institutional reforms and territorial autonomy show some success in preventing or ending conflict, economic policies have a mixed record. The report concludes with a call for better data on perceptions and a more rigorous analysis of policy outcomes.

The analysis concludes that the 2016 drought in Somalia and Somaliland was primarily driven by natural variability and La Niña rather than climate change. While the autumn rains failed in both regions—representing a once-a-century event in Somaliland—climate change had a small effect on these dry extremes. La Niña increased the probability of a dry season and accounted for approximately one third of the precipitation deficit, though it was not well-predicted by seasonal forecast models.

The document examines the DRC's energy crisis, characterized by an 11% electricity access rate and a heavy reliance on traditional biomass. It analyzes the complexities of the Grand Inga hydropower project, including financial hurdles, governance failures within the state utility SNEL, and socio-environmental concerns. The author argues for a 'two-track strategy' that combines large-scale hydro with diversified, small-scale renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar, wind, and geothermal, supported by the 2014 electricity law to attract private investment. Regionally, the paper highlights the role of the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the potential for the DRC to act as a strategic energy hub for Southern, Central, and Eastern Africa.

The report highlights that illegal harvesting of CITES-listed species occurs in over 25% of all natural and mixed World Heritage sites, threatening biodiversity and the 'outstanding universal value' of these areas. It identifies a gap in the current approach: the World Heritage Convention is site-focused, while CITES operates at the national level. To address this, the report proposes a coordinated value-chain response involving source, transit, and consumer countries, alongside the integration of monitoring and reporting systems. Case studies from Indonesia, Madagascar, the DRC, and Thailand illustrate the devastating impact of poaching and illegal logging, as well as the potential for success through community engagement and inter-agency cooperation.

The document provides a detailed analysis of energy access and efficiency across high-impact countries, highlighting a significant gap between urban and rural electrification and the critical role of enabling policy frameworks. It reports that 3.04 billion people lacked clean cooking access in 2014 and 1.06 billion lacked electricity. While some countries like India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda show strong policy support for energy access, Sub-Saharan Africa remains the least electrified region with underdeveloped policy environments. The report also examines energy efficiency and renewable energy, noting that while renewable energy targets are nearly universal, energy efficiency mandates often lag, particularly in developing nations.

The Simiyu Climate Resilience Project is a proposed adaptation initiative in Tanzania's Simiyu Region. It seeks 102.7 million EUR in grant funding from the GCF, with a total investment of 143.4 million EUR, to address water scarcity and food insecurity caused by climate change. The project focuses on constructing a bulk water supply system from Lake Victoria, improving sanitation, and implementing climate-smart agriculture for approximately 495,000 beneficiaries.

The report analyzes Ethiopia's trajectory toward lower-middle-income status, highlighting significant progress in GDP growth and health indicators alongside persistent challenges in food security, education quality, and political inclusion. It uses scenario modeling to demonstrate that integrated investments in agriculture, human capital, and governance are essential to harness a looming demographic dividend and avoid instability driven by a large youth bulge.

The study finds that while agricultural leasing is a preferred asset financing method in developed markets, it remains nascent in sub-Saharan Africa due to systemic market failures. Key barriers include high down payment requirements (20-40%), a lack of secondary markets for used equipment, and informational asymmetries that lead financial service providers to perceive agriculture as high-risk. Demand is limited by the predominance of smallholder subsistence farmers and low financial literacy. The report identifies Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia as high-potential markets and recommends targeted technical assistance for banks, awareness campaigns for farmers, and the creation of risk-sharing funds to reduce down payment barriers.

FSD Tanzania (FSDT) provided approximately USD 1.36 million in grants to the Capital Markets and Securities Authority (CMSA) and the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) to establish the Enterprise Growth Market (EGM). The EGM aims to provide long-term equity capital for growth-oriented SMEs in sectors such as agribusiness, mining, and manufacturing. Since its launch, five companies have listed, raising approximately TZS 46 billion from 242,518 investors. While the initiative has successfully increased the number of investors and improved the capacity of regulators, challenges remain regarding low liquidity, limited managerial skills among MSMEs, and the sustainability of funding for awareness and capacity-building activities.