Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data

The report argues that while vertical economic inequality is at an all-time high globally, horizontal inequality (inequality between groups) has declined significantly over the last 30 years. It finds that horizontal inequalities—particularly economic and political disparities affecting deprived groups—are stronger predictors of armed conflict than vertical inequalities. The authors emphasize that perceived inequality often diverges from objective data and is a critical driver of violence. While political institutional reforms and territorial autonomy show some success in preventing or ending conflict, economic policies have a mixed record. The report concludes with a call for better data on perceptions and a more rigorous analysis of policy outcomes.

• Global vertical economic inequality is currently at its highest level since reliable cross-nationally comparable data became available, with the trend being most pronounced in the world's largest countries.
• Horizontal inequality in infant mortality has declined steadily since approximately 1985, reaching all-time lows and contradicting the theory that such inequalities are too 'sticky' to be addressed.
• Horizontal inequalities—defined as disparities in economic, political, social, or cultural status between culturally defined groups—are more strongly associated with armed conflict than vertical inequalities.
• The relationship between objective horizontal inequality and conflict is often mediated by perceptions; however, objective and perceived inequalities frequently do not overlap.
• Perceptions of unfair government treatment are more strongly linked to conflict-related behavior and attitudes than direct measures of material inequality.
• Political exclusion of ethnic groups from executive power is a significant driver of civil conflict, and this effect is often stronger for groups whose territories contain oil deposits.
• In Nigeria, significant horizontal inequalities persist across religious, regional, and ethnic lines, with the North lagging behind the South in education and wealth.
• Uganda exhibits deep regional inequalities between the North and South, which have historically fueled conflicts such as those involving the Lords Resistance Army (LRA).
• Tanzania has remained relatively peaceful due to a history of African socialism that promoted national unity and reduced ethnic and religious polarization.
• In the Philippines, substantial regional inequalities in development and health, particularly in the southern Mindanao region, have been exploited by rebel groups to mobilize recruits.
• Political institutional measures, territorial decentralization, and cultural recognition are evidenced to help avert the onset of conflict.
• Post-conflict territorial autonomy and military power-sharing tend to reduce the risk of conflict recurrence, whereas wealth-sharing policies show no such evidence.
• Peace agreements that include civil society organizations are significantly more durable, with the risk of failure reduced by as much as 64%.
• Post-conflict economic policies, particularly those based on neoliberal privatization, often have a mixed or negative record, sometimes worsening group inequalities.

APA

BAHGAT, K., BARRETT, G., DUPUY, K., GATES, S., HILLESUND, S., NYGÅRD, H. M., RUSTAD, S. A., STRAND, H., URDAL, H., & ØSTBY, G. (2017). Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1cf75cd2-ca20-4ee7-b003-11e27eb87cc9/Inequality and Conflict Full Report.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

BAHGAT, KARIM, GRAY BARRETT, KENDRA DUPUY, SCOTT GATES, SOLVEIG HILLESUND, HÅVARD MOKLEIV NYGÅRD, SIRI AAS RUSTAD, et al. Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2017. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1cf75cd2-ca20-4ee7-b003-11e27eb87cc9/Inequality and Conflict Full Report.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=BAHGAT |first1=KARIM |last2=BARRETT |first2=GRAY |last3=DUPUY |first3=KENDRA |last4=GATES |first4=SCOTT |last5=HILLESUND |first5=SOLVEIG |last6=NYGÅRD |first6=HÅVARD MOKLEIV |last7=RUSTAD |first7=SIRI AAS |last8=STRAND |first8=HÅVARD |last9=URDAL |first9=HENRIK |display-authors=etal |title=Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=12 April 2017 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1cf75cd2-ca20-4ee7-b003-11e27eb87cc9/Inequality and Conflict Full Report.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bahgat2017inequality, author = {BAHGAT, KARIM and BARRETT, GRAY and DUPUY, KENDRA and GATES, SCOTT and HILLESUND, SOLVEIG and NYGÅRD, HÅVARD MOKLEIV and RUSTAD, SIRI AAS and STRAND, HÅVARD and URDAL, HENRIK and ØSTBY, GUDRUN}, title = {{Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2017}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/1cf75cd2-ca20-4ee7-b003-11e27eb87cc9/Inequality and Conflict Full Report.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }