Search Climate Insights Directory

The report details how developing countries approach investment treaty negotiations, highlighting a trend toward renegotiating outdated agreements and the use of model treaties. It identifies the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and investment authorities as the primary leads in negotiations and provides a detailed mapping of ratification processes across various nations.

The document introduces ACLED data on political violence targeting women (PVTW), defining it as the use of physical force by groups with political motivations in the public sphere. The analysis reveals that while sexual violence is a significant threat, non-sexual attacks are the most commonly reported type of PVTW globally. The brief highlights regional variations in both the types of violence and the perpetrators, noting that anonymous armed groups are the most frequent offenders overall, while state forces, political militias, and mobs dominate in specific regions. The authors argue that understanding these patterns is essential for evidence-based Women, Peace and Security (WPS) policies and for achieving 'security equality' by recognizing women as active political agents rather than mere victims.

The document analyzes the tension between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the African Union (AU), attributing the friction to perceived bias, the influence of the UN Security Council, and a clash between retributive and restorative justice. It explores the proposed African Court of Justice and Human Rights (ACJHR) and the Malabo Protocol as regional alternatives, while noting significant hurdles in funding and ratification. The author argues that while the ICC is limited by global power politics, Africa's path to accountability depends on the political will to ratify regional judicial frameworks and utilize hybrid courts.

The report examines the global sugarcane market, noting that while demand is growing in Asia and Africa, it is stagnating in developed countries due to health concerns. It highlights the rise of voluntary sustainability standards (VSSs), which grew at a compound annual growth rate of about 52% from 2008 to 2016, though sales have not kept pace with production. The document identifies significant sustainability risks, including land grabbing, forced labor, and greenhouse gas emissions from field burning, and suggests that expanding VSSs in low human development countries like Sudan and Uganda could catalyze development benefits.

The document examines the transition in Sudan after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, highlighting the tension between the civilian-led Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military-led Transitional Military Council (TMC). It argues that while regime change occurred on paper, the 'Islamic security state' remains influential. The author outlines five scenarios ranging from a return to the status quo or civil war to successful systemic reform, emphasizing that economic recovery and security sector transformation are critical for success.

The document reports that 1.05 billion people remained at the highest risk of cooling insecurity in 2019, down from 1.1 billion in 2018. It identifies the 'Critical 9' countries with the largest populations at high risk, including India, China, and Nigeria, and notes that China and India have already developed National Cooling Plans, while Brazil, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are currently developing them.

The report presents findings from interviews with 106 South Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia and Uganda, highlighting a widespread feeling of exclusion from the peace process. Key issues include a lack of trustworthy information, deep frustration with political leadership, and sharp divisions over the number of states in South Sudan. While all respondents desire to return home, many remain cautious, citing the need for proven stability and security before repatriation is safe.

The report examines the fragmented political and security environment in South Sudan as it attempts to implement the R-ARCSS. It details the proliferation of armed opposition groups, the concentration of power within the government, and the challenges facing the IGAD-led mediation process, including the influence of bilateral interests from regional powers like Sudan and Uganda.

The document analyzes the remittance landscape in Ethiopia, noting a significant discrepancy between World Bank and National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) inflow estimates. It identifies a high reliance on informal channels, estimated at 65% to 80% of remittance value, driven primarily by an overvalued currency and restrictive foreign exchange controls. The formal sector is bank-led and dominated by a few large players, with limited digital penetration due to the absence of e-money licenses and a lack of a national ID database. Infrastructure challenges, including low electricity and internet access and a basic national payment system lacking a retail electronic funds transfer (EFT) system, further hinder the efficiency of formal transfers. The report recommends implementing a risk-based approach to AML/CFT, legalizing foreign currency exchange at market rates, and developing a comprehensive e-money regulatory framework to reduce informality and costs.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The document analyzes the resurgence of debt in Africa, noting that 19 countries have exceeded the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold. It identifies key drivers such as commodity price shocks, exchange rate volatility, and a shift from concessional to market-based loans. Through case studies of Nigeria and Morocco, it examines debt management strategies, including the use of Eurobonds and the importance of autonomous debt management offices, while recommending economic diversification and improved domestic resource mobilization to ensure long-term sustainability.

The research concludes that South Africa does not need a dedicated state-owned export-import bank because its current trade finance market, comprising both private banks and state entities like the IDC and ECIC, is robust and sufficient. The authors argue that establishing a new ECA would be unfeasible due to severe fiscal constraints and would result in unnecessary market duplication. However, the paper identifies a significant gap in trade finance access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and recommends that the IDC and ECIC prioritize streamlined solutions for this sector.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The authors created the CACAO database, which uses a 110x110 km grid to map conflicts, climate data, and socio-economic variables across Africa. Initial descriptive analysis shows that conflicts often overlap with areas rich in natural resources and populated regions, while the relationship with temperature and precipitation changes is more complex and requires further spatial and temporal analysis.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

The report argues that inclusivity is vital for sustaining peace and must be integrated into every stage of the peace continuum, from mediation to state-building. Using Liberia and South Sudan as case studies, it contrasts Liberia's relatively successful inclusive frameworks and unified regional support from ECOWAS with South Sudan's elite-driven processes and fragmented regional response from IGAD. The document highlights that technical exercises in security sector reform (SSR) and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) often fail if they do not address underlying political power structures and incentives for spoilers. It concludes with recommendations for the UN to prioritise joint analysis, community consultation, and support for institutionalised regional governance frameworks to ensure sustainable, inclusive peace.

The document argues that while the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance provides a normative framework, democratic processes in Africa have largely stagnated in a transitional phase, often trapped in an 'electoral fallacy' where regular elections occur without deep institutional consolidation. It identifies internal pressures—such as the rise of populism, election-related violence, and long-term leadership—and external pressures—including the influence of non-democratic powers like China, Russia, and Turkey, and a 'security-first' doctrine from Western actors—as primary drivers of democratic recession. Despite these challenges, the author notes positive signals such as the increasing number of charter signatories, the role of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), and the effectiveness of ECOWAS in restoring democracy in specific instances. The briefing recommends limiting the concentration of power through term limits and shifting international investment toward domestic democratic processes rather than just regional frameworks.

The policy brief contends that climate risks are often 'borderless' and that treating adaptation as a local problem hinders global ambition. It advocates for a shared terminology and a transboundary framing of risk—recognizing how impacts in one country create risks in others via trade, migration, and ecosystems—to better utilize the Paris Agreement's mechanisms, such as the global stocktake and National Adaptation Plans, for collective resilience.

The report examines the systemic marginalization of women in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), where they constitute 30% of the global workforce but are often relegated to low-value, non-digging roles. It identifies key bottlenecks, including lack of access to land, finance, and geological data, as well as cultural taboos and discriminatory legal frameworks. The document argues for gender-mainstreaming in formalization processes, the creation of women-specific financial products, and the strengthening of female miners' associations to improve women's economic independence and influence in the sector.