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The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The 31st AU summit introduced unprecedented budget scrutiny, reducing the 2019 budget by 12% to US$681 million through 'golden rules' of sustainability and predictability. While the AfCFTA saw five new signatories, ratification remains below the 22-country threshold required for implementation. Institutional reforms continue, including the proposed shift to merit-based appointments for the AU Commission and the integration of NEPAD and APRM into the AU core. Additionally, the report highlights an escalating armed conflict in Cameroon's anglophone regions and lists various Peace and Security Council (PSC) decisions from April to June 2018, including a new focus on the nexus between climate change and security.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

The report argues that inclusivity is vital for sustaining peace and must be integrated into every stage of the peace continuum, from mediation to state-building. Using Liberia and South Sudan as case studies, it contrasts Liberia's relatively successful inclusive frameworks and unified regional support from ECOWAS with South Sudan's elite-driven processes and fragmented regional response from IGAD. The document highlights that technical exercises in security sector reform (SSR) and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) often fail if they do not address underlying political power structures and incentives for spoilers. It concludes with recommendations for the UN to prioritise joint analysis, community consultation, and support for institutionalised regional governance frameworks to ensure sustainable, inclusive peace.

The document analyzes the institutionalization of 'Xi Jinping Thought' and its impact on China-Africa relations, highlighting five trends: the centrality of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), support for UN reform, an expanded global military role, and stricter internet governance. It warns that while China offers development alternatives to the West, these trends may increase debt burdens, promote illiberal internet regimes, and increase the militarization of the continent.

The report examines the 2018 African Union Peace and Security Council elections, noting a shift toward regional consensus and a decline in the average governance and democracy scores of member states. It details institutional reform struggles led by President Paul Kagame, specifically the contested transformation of Nepad into a development agency. Additionally, it analyzes the need for sanctions in South Sudan, the political deadlock in Togo, and the challenges of state absence in the Central African Republic.

The report finds that the threat of violent extremism among South Sudanese and Somalian refugees in Ethiopia is low, as refugees often possess a genuine disdain for the extremists who caused their displacement. While Ethiopia has effectively managed camp security through a collaborative approach involving refugees, the document warns that chronic underfunding and a lack of livelihood opportunities for youth create fertile ground for future radicalisation. It argues against the narrative that refugees are inherent security risks, suggesting instead that robust asylum processes and integration policies, such as Ethiopia's Nine Pledges, are the most effective ways to ensure security.

The document examines the pervasive impact of corruption on African youth, who are identified as both primary victims and increasingly as perpetrators. It highlights how corruption fuels instability, conflict, and migration, while arguing that current youth engagement in anti-corruption efforts is superficial. The brief recommends structural changes, including amending the AU Advisory Board on Corruption's membership and implementing access to information laws, to ensure youth are active partners in designing and driving anti-corruption initiatives.

Ethiopia is piloting the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) to move away from a camp-based refugee model toward socio-economic integration. While the reform promises expanded access to work permits, education, and civil documentation, it faces significant hurdles including low industrial wages, coordination gaps between government agencies, and ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella. The document recommends a conflict-sensitive approach, a national minimum wage, and increased start-up capital for refugee entrepreneurs to ensure sustainable self-reliance.

The report examines the shift from individual-centric privacy concerns to the broader societal ethics of biometric technologies. It analyzes how the integration of biometric data into large-scale networked databases facilitates 'function creep,' where data collected for one purpose (e.g., humanitarian aid or refugee management) is repurposed for security and policing. Through case studies in the UK, EU, and India, the authors argue that biometrics are transforming human identity into 'coded' information, potentially eroding social trust, increasing exclusion for 'unreadable' bodies, and altering the relationship between the citizen and the state.

The report provides an evaluation of corporate peacebuilding initiatives, arguing that most 'Business for Peace' (B4P) efforts have yielded few positive impacts and can sometimes exacerbate local conflicts. It presents seven key questions for firms to assess their impact on conflict environments, local definitions of peace, socio-economic structures, and supply chain links to conflict actors. The authors conclude that the most peace-positive strategy is often to avoid conflict regions entirely and that substantive progress requires binding, independently verified regulatory initiatives.

The document provides a mapping of children living in conflict settings, distinguishing between those in conflict-affected countries and those in 'conflict zones' (within 50km of fighting). In 2017, approximately 1.8 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries, while 420 million lived in conflict zones. Asia has the highest absolute number of affected children, but the Middle East has the highest proportion relative to its population. The report also notes a rise in the number of children in conflict zones since 2000 and discusses the severe impact of the denial of humanitarian access, particularly in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the Central African Republic.

The document analyzes the deteriorating relationship between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the African Union (AU), specifically focusing on the politicization of the court through UN Security Council referrals in Sudan and Libya. It argues that the AU's preference for political stability and peace-building often clashes with the ICC's judicial mandate. To resolve this, the author suggests a shift toward 'positive complementarity' and the use of hybrid courts, citing the Extraordinary African Chambers (EAC) in Senegal as a successful model for bringing justice closer to victims and respecting state sovereignty while combating impunity.

The research paper examines the persistent issue of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) perpetrated by UN peacekeepers, particularly in conflict-affected regions of Africa. It highlights how power imbalances and poverty drive transactional sex and notes that legal hurdles, such as Status of Force Agreements (SOFAs), often shield perpetrators from prosecution by leaving jurisdiction with home countries. The paper details the UN's response through Resolution 1325 and Resolution 2272, the latter of which empowers the Secretary-General to repatriate troops and requires member states to report on investigations. It concludes that while reforms under Secretary-General António Guterres provide an opportunity for improvement, success depends on sustained political will and balancing troop deployment needs with stringent vetting.

The paper argues that despite Kenya's strong economic performance as a regional hub, the 2017 elections exposed deep-seated vulnerabilities in its democratic institutions and a persistent reliance on ethnically based identity politics. While the Supreme Court's initial annulment of the election results was seen as a victory for the separation of powers, subsequent political brinkmanship by leaders Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga led to contested results and reported deaths. The author concludes that economic growth alone is insufficient to ensure stability, and that Kenya requires inclusive development and strengthened institutions to move beyond ethnic polarization.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) use of mediation as a conflict-prevention tool. It analyzes the institutional gaps, the tension between formal and informal approaches, and the need for a more structured, long-term strategy to address the root causes of conflict in Africa.

The report examines the 'gathering storm clouds' of political and economic uncertainty in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. It argues that a combination of commodity price collapses, neo-patrimonial governance, and rapid population growth is creating a volatile environment. The analysis highlights a critical gap between population growth and the provision of basic services, alongside a history of 'pseudo-democratic' regimes that resist genuine political transition. The authors warn that without strategic diversification of economies and significant investment in human capital, the region's large youth population could become a catalyst for further instability and violence.

The document challenges the narrative that water scarcity directly causes violent conflict, asserting instead that the 'politics of water'—including corruption, marginalization, and poor state management—increases conflict risks. While Africa faces significant physical water stress, with 65% of the population experiencing occasional stress and 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid, empirical research suggests that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than violence. Conflict typically emerges when water is treated as a 'club good' distributed based on political weight or social networks rather than need. This is particularly evident in the disparity between urban and rural access, the prioritization of cash crops for irrigation, and the rise of informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, who exploit water needs for profit in weak states.