Kenya: Counting the Cost of Political Brinkmanship

The paper argues that despite Kenya's strong economic performance as a regional hub, the 2017 elections exposed deep-seated vulnerabilities in its democratic institutions and a persistent reliance on ethnically based identity politics. While the Supreme Court's initial annulment of the election results was seen as a victory for the separation of powers, subsequent political brinkmanship by leaders Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga led to contested results and reported deaths. The author concludes that economic growth alone is insufficient to ensure stability, and that Kenya requires inclusive development and strengthened institutions to move beyond ethnic polarization.

• Kenya possesses a strong economy relative to the rest of Africa, with a GDP growth rate of 5.8% last year compared to a continental average of 1.3%.
• The 2017 electoral process demonstrated both institutional strength and fragility: the Supreme Court's unprecedented decision to annul the national election results on 1 September was a highpoint for democratic principles, yet the subsequent repeat elections were marred by the flight of a senior official and the withdrawal of candidate Raila Odinga.
• The repeat elections resulted in a victory for Uhuru Kenyatta with 98% of the vote, though the legitimacy of the result is contested by Odinga and the death toll is disputed, with police reporting 19 deaths while human rights groups claim more than 70.
• The political environment remains dominated by ethnically based identity politics and corruption, with leaders engaging in political brinkmanship that prioritizes ethnic favoritism over concrete policy debates.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2017). Kenya: Counting the Cost of Political Brinkmanship. https://saiia.org.za/research/kenya-counting-the-cost-of-political-brinkmanship/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Kenya: Counting the Cost of Political Brinkmanship. 2017. https://saiia.org.za/research/kenya-counting-the-cost-of-political-brinkmanship/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Kenya: Counting the Cost of Political Brinkmanship |date=7 November 2017 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/kenya-counting-the-cost-of-political-brinkmanship/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2017kenya, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Kenya: Counting the Cost of Political Brinkmanship}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/kenya-counting-the-cost-of-political-brinkmanship/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }