Search Climate Insights Directory

The research examines how the physical and economic characteristics of natural resources predispose them to be exploited by warring factions in Africa. It posits that resources requiring low specialized skills, high portability, and high liquidity (like alluvial diamonds) are more likely to fuel conflict. Conversely, capital-intensive resources (like deep-level gold or oil) are less attractive to rebels but can still be linked to conflict through state weakness and elite rent-seeking. The author emphasizes that while resource characteristics create vulnerabilities, the state's capacity to manage grievances and maintain territorial control determines whether these vulnerabilities lead to actual conflict.

The document examines the evolution of suicide attacks in Africa, distinguishing between ad hoc incidents and those part of broader campaigns by groups like AQLIM, al-Shabaab, and Boko Haram. It details tactical advantages, target selection, and delivery methods, while providing a historical analysis of attacks in countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Somalia, and Nigeria. The guide also offers recommendations for preventing recruitment and improving intelligence gathering, while warning against repressive counter-terrorism measures that may fuel further radicalization.

The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.

The document analyzes the 'troubling confusion' in Nigeria's strategy against Boko Haram, contrasting a military-oriented approach supported by the EU with reports of secret peace talks in Senegal. It suggests that the government's responses are incoherent and may be driven by political motives related to President Jonathan's 2015 re-election bid. The briefing recommends moving toward a bottom-up dialogue strategy and improving the delivery of public goods to address the underlying socio-economic grievances that fuel the violence.

The document details CDKN's support for Bangladesh in advancing the 'Loss and Damage' agenda within the UNFCCC, including the creation of case studies and training for officials. It also highlights the development of a participatory monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tool for community-based adaptation (CBA) by the ARCAB partnership, which has been scaled up to Somalia and Ethiopia. Additionally, it mentions research on climate-induced displacement in Bangladesh conducted by the University of Sussex and the University of Bangladesh.

The report assesses how the Somali diaspora, comprising 14 per cent of the population, can contribute to the reconstruction of Somalia through financial, political, and socio-cultural engagement. It highlights the significant economic impact of remittances and the role of the diaspora in Kenya as a logistical and business hub. However, it also identifies critical challenges, including the persistence of clan-based interests, insecurity, and the involvement of some diaspora elements in supporting al-Shabaab or engaging in people smuggling.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate risks, particularly droughts and floods, which create a long-term fiscal liability estimated at 2.0 to 2.4 per cent of GDP annually. The report identifies critical dependencies in the agricultural, water, and energy sectors, noting that 98 per cent of crop production is rain-fed and over half of electricity is generated by hydropower. While the government has established frameworks like Vision 2030 and the National Climate Change Response Strategy, the report finds that disaster risk management remains largely reactive and uncoordinated, with significant capacity gaps at the subnational level. It recommends deeper research into sector-specific vulnerabilities, the 'climate proofing' of infrastructure and budgets, and the integration of gender-disaggregated data into planning.

The report highlights the systemic neglect of 200,000 to 400,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Kenya, who face severe vulnerability due to a combination of colonial legacies, violent conflict, human rights abuses, and climatic factors. It argues that while IDPs in other regions of Kenya received significant support following the 2007/08 post-election violence, pastoralist IDPs are largely unaccounted for and receive only inadequate, short-term humanitarian aid. The document calls for the adoption of a national IDP policy, ratification of the Kampala Convention, and a shift toward long-term security and development solutions.

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, a political novice with a background in education and civil society, was elected president of Somalia on 10 September 2012. He faces the monumental tasks of reconstructing the state, building sustainable institutions, addressing state corruption, and managing the threat of Al-Shabaab, which may miniaturise and operate from various locations if its stronghold in Kismayo falls. His success depends on ensuring security to attract the diaspora's help and balancing Western influence with domestic Somali needs.

The document examines Africa's role in the 'global nuclear renaissance,' noting that the continent holds 18% of world uranium resources. It details the production activities of Namibia, Niger, Malawi, and South Africa, while identifying emerging exploration in countries like the Central African Republic and Tanzania. The author argues that while uranium mining provides significant GDP contributions and employment, it is plagued by governance challenges, including a lack of institutional capacity to monitor environmental and health impacts. The paper compares African practices with those in Canada and Australia and suggests that strengthening government capacity and adopting international best practices, such as those from the IAEA and EITI, are essential for sustainable development.

On 20 August 2012, 215 parliamentarians were sworn in at Mogadishu airport, marking the first such ceremony on Somali soil in over two decades. While the event is viewed as a 'watershed moment' by the international community, the process faced delays due to disputes over the vetting of nominees by the Technical Selection Committee (TSC). Critical milestones remain, including the election of a speaker and president, which are complicated by clan dynamics and allegations of vote buying.

The author argues that Somalia remains far from functional statehood despite the end of its transition period, citing a corrupt and factionalized Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a paralyzed Parliament. While external actors and Amisom forces have made security gains against Al-Shabaab and piracy, internal political instability, lack of legitimacy, and territorial disputes involving Puntland and Somaliland threaten the process. The document concludes that without genuine political will and inclusive engagement of stakeholders, the transition is unlikely to succeed.

The document analyzes the Indian Ocean as a critical global trade and energy highway, detailing the shift from colonial hegemony to a complex environment involving new regional powers like India and China. It identifies key security threats including piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling, and asymmetrical attacks by non-state actors, while evaluating the role of international naval coalitions and regional cooperation frameworks in maintaining maritime order.

The African Union (AU) has shifted the continental focus from decolonisation to development and economic integration. While it has established institutional infrastructure, implemented peacekeeping missions, and promoted democratic norms—such as refusing to recognise coup-led governments—it faces a structural impasse in achieving developmental goals. The author argues that the AU must move beyond ambitious declarations toward pragmatic outcomes, specifically by translating governance into developmental deliverables, strengthening regional economic communities like ECOWAS, and clarifying leadership principles for the AU Commission.

The report details a conference on Sino-African Union cooperation in peace and security, exploring the intersection of China's economic engagement and Africa's security architecture. Key discussions focus on the 'African solutions to African problems' principle, the role of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and IGAD, and specific conflict zones such as the two Sudans and Somalia. While acknowledging China's role in infrastructure and condition-free aid, the report highlights concerns regarding environmental degradation, the influx of cheap goods, and the impact of arms supplies. It recommends a shift from ad-hoc crisis reaction to a proactive role for China, emphasizing capacity building for the AU's African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS).

The document details a May 2012 meeting in Nairobi involving 19 researchers and practitioners to address the dominance of Northern perspectives in gender, peace and security (GPS) scholarship. Participants identified critical gaps in current research, such as the lack of evidence-based homegrown data and the failure to address structural causes of insecurity. The session concluded with the proposal to establish a pan-African think-tank to generate scientific knowledge and alternative narratives that reflect African experiences and agency, moving beyond 'women as victims' discourses.

The document argues that while governance-related intra-state conflicts have become more prevalent than direct inter-state border disputes since the late 1980s, Africa's porous and artificial colonial borders continue to threaten peace and security. These boundaries facilitate the 'regionalisation of conflict' by allowing domestic instability to spill over into neighbouring states, as seen in the Great Lakes region, the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. The author contends that the African Union's (AU) policy of maintaining the colonial status quo (the 'inviolability of national boundaries') has not eliminated tensions. To address this, the AU Border Programme (AUBP) seeks to transform borders from 'barriers' into 'bridges' through proper delimitation and demarcation, which the author identifies as a necessary precondition for successful continental integration and the structural prevention of conflict.

The report assesses the risks associated with Uganda's transition to an oil-producing state, focusing on the Lake Albert region. It identifies significant local grievances regarding land tenure and marginalisation, warns of the 'resource curse' potentially undermining democracy through patronage and militarisation, and examines regional security threats, including the alliance between al-Shabaab and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The paper examines Kenya's response to maritime piracy, noting that while the country's geostrategic location makes it a crucial actor, its engagement has lacked a coherent domestic strategy. It highlights the economic impact of piracy, the failure of previous prosecution agreements due to resource gaps, and the potential for improved strategic engagement through international conferences and regional cooperation.

The report argues that maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia imposes significant economic costs on Kenya, including shipping surcharges and losses in tourism, while also facilitating money laundering within the country. It assesses previous counter-piracy efforts, noting that while Kenya has attempted to prosecute pirates, these efforts were hampered by jurisdictional conflicts and archaic evidentiary laws. The author recommends a multi-pronged strategy that combines sea-based naval patrols with land-based efforts to rebuild the Somali state and disrupt the financial networks of pirate bosses operating within Kenya.