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The document analyzes conflict data from 1960 to 2015, noting that while global fatalities from armed conflict generally decline relative to population, Africa maintains a disproportionately high conflict burden. It distinguishes between the 'capacity deficit' in sub-Saharan Africa and the 'inclusion deficit' in the MENA region as primary drivers of instability. The author argues that while violent Islamist extremism receives significant media attention, it accounts for a smaller portion of total political fatalities compared to other forms of violence, such as riots and non-state conflict.

The document examines the challenges and necessity of resolving maritime boundary disputes in Africa, highlighting how these conflicts hinder the 'Blue Economy' and regional security. It discusses the role of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIMS), while recommending a preference for bilateral and regional resolution mechanisms over international courts.

The paper assesses the limitations of naval operations like EU Naval Force Operation ATALANTA and NATO's Operation Ocean Shield in addressing the root causes of Somali piracy. It identifies illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, political instability, and youth unemployment as primary drivers of piracy. While Somalia has established a legal framework through the Somalia Maritime Resource and Security Strategy (SMRSS), the declaration of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and the Federal Somali Fisheries Law, it lacks the technical capacity—such as Vessel Monitoring Systems and a Fisheries Monitoring Center—to enforce these laws. The author advocates for international navies to transition from purely military deterrents to supporting Somalia's coast guard and monitoring fishing activities to prevent a resurgence of piracy.

The document examines China's deepening security role in Africa, shifting from traditional military concerns to non-traditional threats. It analyzes how China protects its citizens from crime and terrorism, its response to the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and its dual role in the illegal wildlife and timber trades. The authors argue that these transnational challenges are compelling China to increase its engagement with multilateral organizations and move beyond its traditional policy of non-interference.

The African Union's African Standby Force (ASF) is unlikely to reach full operational capability by January 2016, but the AU has successfully demonstrated its ability to conduct peace operations using diverse models. The authors argue that the AU should move away from costly exercises and instead update the ASF's doctrine to reflect current conflict trends, such as counter-terrorism and asymmetric warfare, which differ from the original 2003 conceptualization.

The report examines how migration into the Harenna Forest in southeast Ethiopia accelerates deforestation and biodiversity loss. By comparing Harenna Buluk, which saw significant migration driven by local political elites, with Delo Mena, which had minimal migration, the study finds that migrants introduce intensive farming practices that are adopted by locals, leading to the conversion of forest glades into agricultural land. The report recommends regulating informal land markets, strengthening participatory forest management bylaws, and developing alternative livelihoods like tourism to protect the ecosystem's unique biodiversity and hydrological functions.

The paper analyzes the Islamic State's (IS) organizational approach to integrating foreign fighters and local recruits in Iraq and Syria. It argues that while foreign fighters provide essential manpower and ideological zeal for IS's territorial ambitions, they introduce risks of adverse selection (incompetence or infiltration). IS mitigates these risks through segregated training, vetting via extreme acts, and deploying foreign fighters in high-risk roles like suicide missions. Conversely, local recruits present a moral hazard of latent opportunism and personal vendettas. The authors conclude that IS effectively manages these diverse groups by aligning them under the overarching goal of establishing a Caliphate, though internal tensions can emerge during military setbacks.

The document examines the ACIRC, a proposed rapid deployment instrument for the African Union (AU) initiated by South Africa to address capability gaps in crisis response. It highlights operational hurdles, including political opposition from key member states, funding shortages, and a lack of strategic airlift capacity. The briefing argues that the ACIRC must be integrated into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and coordinated with the UN to avoid becoming a reactive, short-term tool, while recommending a shift in deployment authority to the AU Peace and Security Council to ensure speed.

The document examines how South Africa used its tenure on the UN Security Council to formalise institutional links between the UN and the African Union (AU), specifically through the application of Chapter VIII of the UN Charter. It argues that South Africa's efforts helped move the AU from a position of limited capacity to one of greater strategic co-operation, resulting in the creation of joint taskforces and improved coordination for peace support operations in Africa. The author suggests this 'hub and spoke' model of devolving security management to regional organisations offers a pragmatic alternative to the stalled process of formal UN Security Council reform.

The report outlines the priorities for the June 2015 AU summit, noting that the official theme of women's empowerment is likely to be overshadowed by urgent crises. Key concerns include the high death toll of African migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the instability in Burundi caused by President Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term bid. It also examines the AU's role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Libya, the challenges of establishing an African Standby Force, and the broader struggle for continental economic and political integration.

The report identifies three primary categories of insecurity in Kenya: armed civilian groups, state-led violence, and jihadist activities. While al-Shabaab has increased its frequency and deadliness of attacks since the 2011 deployment of troops to Somalia, the report finds that non-al-Shabaab armed groups and state actions have historically caused more fatalities. The analysis highlights systemic drivers of instability, including the legacy of 'imperial presidents', pervasive marginalisation—particularly regarding land distribution at the coast and in the Rift Valley—and the politicisation of security for electoral gain. It also notes the influence of the regional war economy and porous borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

The report argues that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in fragile states, exacerbating existing conflict drivers like poverty and weak governance. It proposes a framework for "climate-resilient peacebuilding" based on six principles, including integrated context analysis and a forward-looking approach to planning. The document identifies specific entry points for integration across five peacebuilding dimensions: basic safety and security, political processes, basic services, government functions, and economic revitalization. It also reviews existing international guidance, noting that while some tools integrate climate risks, many others lack this perspective, suggesting that practitioners should integrate climate resilience into existing resources rather than creating new toolkits.

The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.

The February 2015 Peace & Security Council Report details the AU's efforts to manage continental security crises. Key outcomes include the authorization of a 7,500-strong Multinational Joint Task Force (MJTF) to combat Boko Haram and a new tiered funding model for the AU budget. However, the report notes significant setbacks, such as the deferral of the Commission of Inquiry report on South Sudan and deep divisions within the International Contact Group on Libya. It also highlights the high risk of election-related violence across 18 African states in 2015 and the ongoing struggle to defeat al-Shabaab in Somalia.

The paper argues that financial inclusion is essential for alleviating poverty and stimulating local economic development in Africa. It identifies significant barriers to formal banking for the rural poor, including strict 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) regulations, lack of documentation, and geographic distance from banks. Consequently, many rely on informal savings and credit schemes—such as esusu in Nigeria and susu in Ghana—and informal remittance networks, which provide flexibility but carry high risks due to lack of regulation. The author highlights M-Pesa in Kenya as a successful model of mobile-led financial inclusion, contrasting it with less successful attempts in other countries. The document emphasizes that physical infrastructure must be paired with financial literacy to be sustainable and recommends that governments create enabling regulatory environments, diversify financial products (including Islamic banking), and improve credit-reporting infrastructure for SMEs.

The report addresses the 'crisis in remittances' caused by bank de-risking in the UK-Somalia corridor due to AML/CFT compliance concerns. It proposes a 'third mile' risk management framework centered on a Trusted Third Party (TTP) system and a biometric registration process for recipients in Somalia. The TTP would track transactions, audit Money Service Businesses (MSBs), and assign risk ratings to transactions to provide UK settlement banks with greater confidence in the legitimacy of the funds flow. The authors suggest a six-month pilot starting in early 2015 involving 500 customers across two Somali locations.

The document examines the role of diaspora populations in international development, highlighting that their financial contributions often exceed official development assistance. It analyzes the challenges of integrating diaspora-led initiatives into the formal Norwegian aid system (Norad), the value of 'diasprenuer' (diaspora entrepreneurship), and the importance of recognizing transnational bonds as a resource rather than a barrier to integration.

The document advocates for a shift in DDR processes from viewing gender as a challenge to treating it as an asset. It emphasizes that women are active combatants who gain skills and independence during conflict, while men can also be victims of violent masculinity and repressive regimes. The author argues that successful DDR requires increasing female participation in peace processes, 'disarming' violent masculinities, and accounting for the socio-economic and cultural contexts that affect reintegration.

The document examines how Islamic charity, specifically zakat, intersects with migrant remittances and organized diaspora development efforts among Pakistani-origin Muslims in Oslo. It argues that these religious motivations create lasting transnational ties across generations but remain largely invisible or misunderstood by mainstream Norwegian society and the Global North's development sector. The authors suggest a need for greater recognition of religious frameworks in development and a critical re-evaluation of who defines 'development' activities.

The document examines the tensions between humanitarian protection and the push for the return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), particularly in Somalia. It argues that return programming often relies on a flawed 'sedentary bias' and ignores the critical role of social networks and the reality of ongoing conflict. The authors warn that shifting aid from regional camps to unstable areas like south-central Somalia may serve state migration management interests rather than humanitarian needs, potentially increasing risks for returnees in environments of impunity.