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The document analyzes the drivers of instability in the Great Lakes region, emphasizing that while the DRC's governance failures are often blamed, the political repression and economic interests of Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi are equally significant. It highlights the role of illegal mineral extraction and the export of internal political conflicts into the eastern DRC. The author suggests that the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi provides an opportunity for a positive shift in regional dynamics, provided there is a fundamental reframing of the conflict narrative and a shift in international diplomatic approaches. The paper evaluates existing frameworks like the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) and recommends a high-level mediation process led by the African Union.

The research paper examines the relationship between climate change and global instability, asserting that while climate change may not cause conflict in isolation, it intensifies problems like food and water insecurity, economic loss, and ethnic tensions. It highlights that the risk of conflict is heavily dependent on regional sociopolitical contexts, such as government corruption and historical grievances. The document also notes a correlation in the U.S. between residents of disaster-prone areas and higher levels of concern regarding climate change, suggesting that these insights should inform government policies on mitigation and conflict prevention.

The report analyzes the proposed Africa-EU strategy ahead of the October 2020 summit, comparing EU priorities with the AU's Agenda 2063. It identifies gaps in the EU's approach, particularly regarding poverty, health, debt cancellation, and infrastructure, and recommends a revamped partnership based on mutual accountability and a people-centred approach.

The document assesses the chronic instability in the Great Lakes region, specifically the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It argues that while governance failures in the DRC are often blamed, the repressive domestic policies and illicit economic interests of Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi are equally significant drivers of conflict. The author suggests that the presidency of Félix Tshisekedi provides an opportunity to shift regional dynamics, provided the international community demands better governance from all regional actors and supports a comprehensive political dialogue rather than purely military solutions.

The report finds that 1.61 billion children lived in conflict-affected countries in 2019, with 426 million residing in specific conflict zones (within 50 km of fighting). Africa has the highest absolute number of affected children, while the Middle East has the highest proportional share. The number of children in conflict zones has generally increased since the 1990s, with millions exposed to continuous conflict throughout their childhood.

The document examines the African Peer Review Mechanism's (APRM) drive for universal membership, arguing that while a worthy goal, the organization must first address its backlog of 'slow states' and improve the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs). It highlights that 40 of 55 African states have joined, but many have failed to undergo first reviews or progress to second reviews. The authors warn that 'targeted reviews' may allow governments to avoid sensitive issues and suggest that the APRM adopt stricter measures, similar to the OGP or EITI, to handle inactive members.

The document details how climate change threatens the bio-cultural resources and traditional knowledge of African indigenous peoples, specifically within Indigenous peoples' and local communities' conserved territories and areas (ICCAs) and pastoralist communities. It highlights the use of traditional knowledge and 'Community Protocols' as essential tools for climate adaptation and the protection of customary laws. Finally, it outlines the severe risks faced by cultural rights defenders in Africa, including land grabbing, physical violence, and criminalization, while recommending the establishment of defender funds and coordinated monitoring to protect these activists.

The policy brief examines the intersection of migrant integration and development contributions, specifically focusing on the Norwegian experience. It argues that while diaspora members engage in development and remittance-sending largely independently of government policy, the quality of their integration—including their economic stability and legal security—significantly influences their capacity to contribute. The authors critique the current fragmentation of migration, integration, and development policies, noting that some security-focused narratives regarding remittances can stigmatize these contributions. The brief recommends recognizing diaspora initiatives as transnational civic engagement and reducing remittance costs to enhance development outcomes.

Between 1989 and 2019, Africa experienced a complex conflict landscape. While battle-related deaths have remained relatively low and stable since the early 2000s, the number of state-based conflicts reached a record high in 2019. There is a concerning increase in the involvement of the Islamic State and a rise in non-state communal conflicts. UN peacekeeping operations in the region saw a significant increase in troop size from 1999 to 2010.

The African Union (AU) and Africa CDC reacted quickly to COVID-19, coordinating health responses and establishing an anti-COVID-19 fund. However, the pandemic has exacerbated security threats in West and Central Africa, where fighting against terrorism and internal conflicts continues despite global ceasefire calls. In the Horn of Africa, the virus has disrupted peace processes and created new instabilities, including the politicisation of response measures and the release of thousands of inmates. The report also highlights the extreme vulnerability of Africa's 25.2 million refugees and internally displaced persons, warning that border closures may increase irregular migration and transmission risks.

The paper outlines three primary areas where South Africa can exert leadership as AU chair: 'Silencing the Guns' by mediating conflicts in Libya and South Sudan; ensuring the timely implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) by July 1, 2020; and revitalizing the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to improve continental governance.

The research paper examines Turkey's efforts to re-assert regional influence through military and economic engagement in North and East Africa. It highlights Turkey's support for the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya, its strategic energy interests in the Mediterranean, and its long-term development and diplomatic presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia. The text notes the complex interplay between Turkey, Russia, and the EU in managing the Libyan crisis, as well as Turkey's rivalry with a bloc including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The document argues that the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process is uniquely suited to support peacebuilding in fragile states because its long-term, holistic, and participatory nature aligns with the timelines and goals of conflict recovery. It highlights that climate risks and conflict often share drivers, such as poverty and weak governance, and that failure to adapt can exacerbate resource competition. The briefing provides examples of countries like Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Palestine that have integrated conflict dynamics into their NAPs, while noting ongoing challenges such as the lack of climate data in conflict zones and the exclusion of refugees from planning processes.

The document argues that for fragile states, climate change and conflict often share drivers and mutually reinforce each other, making the integration of adaptation planning and peacebuilding essential. It highlights how the NAP process, through its long-term, holistic, and participatory nature, can serve as a platform for conflict prevention and trust-building. The text provides examples from countries like Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Palestine where climate adaptation is used to mitigate resource-based conflicts or where active conflict severely hinders adaptation capacity. It concludes by identifying key challenges, including the need for transboundary planning and the inclusion of marginalized populations like refugees.

The document examines the link between armed conflict and forced displacement in Africa, noting that the number of forcibly displaced people more than doubled from 11 million in 2013 to 25.7 million in 2019. It assesses the African Union's (AU) 'Silencing the Guns' initiative, arguing that while infrastructure like the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Panel of the Wise exists, implementation is hindered by a lack of conceptual coherence and poor governance. The brief highlights that governance deficiencies, corruption, and the illicit trade of firearms—with over 40 million civilian-held firearms in Africa—drive conflict and displacement. It recommends that the AU move from early warning to early action, improve interdepartmental coordination, and address the structural root causes of conflict to facilitate durable solutions like repatriation.

The document argues that the African Union's PCRD framework is essential for youth-focused peacebuilding, but its success depends on prioritising socio-economic and political opportunities for young people. It highlights that the absence of inclusive youth policies increases the risk of returning to violence. While some states like Côte d'Ivoire have established dedicated youth ministries to foster policy development, others like Libya and the Central African Republic struggle with implementation due to fragile governance and recurring conflict. The brief recommends that the AU and member states prioritise early youth policy development, create dedicated youth ministries, and ensure all policies are accompanied by monitorable action plans.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, challenging the narrative of mass international 'climate refugee' flows. It posits that migration is an active resilience strategy used by households to diversify income and spread risk, though the most vulnerable are often trapped by a lack of resources. The brief highlights the prevalence of internal migration, the risks of unplanned urbanisation, and the need for African policymakers to develop governance frameworks tailored to local realities rather than relying on international models.

The study evaluates the relationship between three drought indicators and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (1989-2014) using multilevel logistic regression. It finds that while all three measures are positively associated with conflict, the strength of the relationship increases as the measure moves from meteorological (SPEI) to agricultural (NDVI) and finally to socio-economic (EM-DAT) impacts. Specifically, socio-economic droughts approximately double the odds of experiencing violent conflict. However, the author notes that the NDVI effect may be driven by spatial correlation—where conflicts and vegetation loss occur in the same land types—rather than a direct temporal causal link. The study concludes that preventing meteorological droughts from escalating into socio-economic disasters could potentially reduce communal conflict risks.

The report examines the overlapping claims of Somaliland and Puntland to the Sool and Sanaag regions, highlighting how colonial legacies and clan identities create divergent visions of administration. It details recent military clashes in Tukaraq and the militarisation of Sanaag, while noting that economic and social ties persist despite political tensions. The author argues that a durable solution requires consulting local populations and moving beyond identity-based power-sharing.

The document argues that while the world faces unprecedented security risks from climate change, it also possesses unprecedented foresight through predictive modeling. However, a 'governance gap' exists because this information is not effectively translated for security decision-makers or aligned with security policy timelines. To address this, the authors propose the R2P2 framework, which consists of three principles: Assessment & Anticipation (creating a global climate security assessment hub), Elevation & Translation (establishing leadership by security practitioners to brief decision-makers), and Coordination & Alignment (bridging climate and security policy windows).