THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE AND PREVENT

The document argues that while the world faces unprecedented security risks from climate change, it also possesses unprecedented foresight through predictive modeling. However, a 'governance gap' exists because this information is not effectively translated for security decision-makers or aligned with security policy timelines. To address this, the authors propose the R2P2 framework, which consists of three principles: Assessment & Anticipation (creating a global climate security assessment hub), Elevation & Translation (establishing leadership by security practitioners to brief decision-makers), and Coordination & Alignment (bridging climate and security policy windows).

• Climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' that exacerbates stresses on critical resources like water, food, and energy, which can degrade a nation's 'output legitimacy' and lead to state fragility, internal conflict, or state collapse.
• Sea level rise poses an existential threat to low-lying island states and coastal zones, potentially creating a mass increase in stateless people because no international legal norms currently recognize 'climate refugees' or 'environmental refugees'.
• There is a significant 'Right Information' gap characterized by the absence of a standardized global hub for climate security information and a prevalence of forensic, past-oriented analysis over the future projections needed by policy-makers.
• A 'messenger-audience gap' exists where security decision-makers often ignore climate risks when delivered by scientists, but are more receptive when the information is translated and delivered by respected security and military leaders.
• The 'Right Time' gap refers to the lack of governance mechanisms to align the timelines of climate change policy (mitigation and adaptation) with the volatile timelines of global peace and security events.
• The proposed R2P2 framework's first principle, Assessment & Anticipation, suggests creating an International Climate Security Assessment Panel (ICSAP) to produce aggregated global reports on existing and future risks, similar to the IPCC's role for climate science.
• The second principle, Elevation & Translation, proposes establishing 'Climate Security Centers' (CSC) led by senior security practitioners to translate data into actionable recommendations for bodies like the UN Security Council.
• The third principle, Coordination & Alignment, suggests a 'Climate Security Coordination Mechanism' (CSCM) to bridge the gap between the UNFCCC (climate governance) and the UN Security Council (security governance).

APA

WERRELL, C., & FEMIA, F. (2019). THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE AND PREVENT. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-responsibility-to-prepare-and-prevent_a-climate-security-governance-framework-for-the-21st-century_2019_10.pdf

Chicago

WERRELL, CAITLIN, and FRANCESCO FEMIA. THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE AND PREVENT. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2019. https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-responsibility-to-prepare-and-prevent_a-climate-security-governance-framework-for-the-21st-century_2019_10.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=WERRELL |first1=CAITLIN |last2=FEMIA |first2=FRANCESCO |title=THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE AND PREVENT |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=October 2019 |url=https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-responsibility-to-prepare-and-prevent_a-climate-security-governance-framework-for-the-21st-century_2019_10.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{werrell2019responsibility, author = {WERRELL, CAITLIN and FEMIA, FRANCESCO}, title = {{THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PREPARE AND PREVENT}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2019}, month = oct, url = {https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/10/the-responsibility-to-prepare-and-prevent_a-climate-security-governance-framework-for-the-21st-century_2019_10.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }