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The report outlines the priorities for the June 2015 AU summit, noting that the official theme of women's empowerment is likely to be overshadowed by urgent crises. Key concerns include the high death toll of African migrants crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, xenophobic violence in South Africa, and the instability in Burundi caused by President Pierre Nkurunziza's third-term bid. It also examines the AU's role in mediating conflicts in South Sudan and Libya, the challenges of establishing an African Standby Force, and the broader struggle for continental economic and political integration.

The policy brief examines the link between presidential term extensions and political instability in Africa, citing coups in Burkina Faso and Burundi as evidence. It argues that the African Union (AU) has been too reactive, focusing on suspending governments after coups rather than preventing the constitutional manipulations that trigger them. The author calls for the AU to formalize presidential term limits within its governance architecture, specifically suggesting amendments to the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. The brief recommends that 'anchor states' like South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya use preventive diplomacy to discourage term extensions, noting that such practices undermine the goals of Agenda 2063 and regional security.

The research paper argues that South Africa can bridge the conceptual divide between its 'Latin American' and 'African' foreign policy by treating the South Atlantic Zone as a single entity. It highlights the Zone of Peace and Cooperation of the South Atlantic (ZPCSA) as a framework for security and economic collaboration. Key drivers for this engagement include the 'Operation Phakisa' blue economy initiative, the need to combat piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, and the exploitation of untapped oil and gas reserves. While trade between South Africa and Latin American partners like Brazil and Argentina remains low due to similar commodity exports, the document identifies significant growth potential and the role of South Africa as a strategic gateway between Latin America and Asia.

The report examines how credit-enhancement mechanisms—such as guarantees, first-loss provisions, and contingent loans—can mitigate the perceived high risks of green infrastructure to mobilize private capital. It analyzes the offerings of major MDBs (including the World Bank, ADB, and EIB) and provides case studies from India, Nigeria, and Mexico to demonstrate how targeting specific risks, such as exploratory costs or tariff volatility, makes projects bankable. The authors conclude that while MDBs have the tools to catalyze green investment, a lack of knowledge among governments and a lack of specialized approval processes for green projects hinder widespread adoption.

The document examines the AU Panel of the Wise (PoW) as a key pillar of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), focusing on its use of preventive diplomacy in crisis-prone elections. It argues that while the PoW can attenuate violence and promote peaceful outcomes, such interventions often prioritize immediate peace over electoral legitimacy, potentially deferring structural conflicts to future cycles. The author emphasizes that the success of preventive diplomacy depends on the timing of 'early action' and the commitment of political stakeholders, noting that long-term governance transformation is necessary to resolve deep-rooted conflicts.

The author reflects on Zambia's historical support for Southern African liberation movements and its use of a compulsory 'Civics' curriculum to pre-empt xenophobia from childhood. The text suggests that South Africa lacks a similar educational mechanism to teach citizens about the role other African countries played in its struggle, which contributes to recurring xenophobic violence. It recommends the creation of a Presidential Working Group on Xenophobia and calls for prominent African executives in South Africa to be more open about their origins to combat negative perceptions.

The 2015 Nigerian election saw the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) defeat the incumbent People's Democratic Party (PDP), a result attributed to better APC organization, widespread dissatisfaction with the PDP's handling of security and the economy, and technological improvements in the electoral process. The author argues that President-elect Muhammadu Buhari must prioritize combating Boko Haram, addressing potential instability in the oil-producing Delta region, and implementing anti-corruption measures to restore public confidence and attract global investment. Key economic recommendations include boosting agriculture, improving electricity supply, and passing the Petroleum Industries Bill to reform the oil sector.

The Climate Development and Finance Facility (CDFF) is designed to address financing gaps for wind, solar, and hydro projects in low- and lower-middle income countries. It utilizes a three-stage approach: a Development Fund for early-stage due diligence, a Construction Fund that uses equity to avoid high-cost construction debt, and a Refinancing Fund to attract institutional investors once projects are operational. A pilot implementation requires USD 150 million in donor capital to mobilize USD 1.88 billion in private capital, aiming to install approximately 300 MW of clean energy and reduce annual CO2 emissions by around 600 ktCO2.

The Climate Development and Finance Facility (the Facility) is a proposed investment structure designed to overcome financing barriers for renewable energy projects in developing countries. It integrates three stages of support: a Development Fund for early-stage due diligence, a Construction Fund that uses equity to finance construction costs and avoid expensive early-stage debt, and a Refinancing Fund to attract institutional investors once projects are operational. The pilot targets projects between 25-75 MW in specific low- and lower-middle income countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. To launch, the Facility requires USD 150 million in donor capital, which is projected to mobilize USD 2 billion in private capital, install approximately 300 MW of clean energy, and reduce annual CO2 emissions by around 600 kt.

The Long-Term FX Risk Management instrument, developed by The Lab in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and The Currency Exchange Fund Management Company (TIM), aims to unlock climate-relevant investments in emerging markets. By offering long-term fixed and inflation-linked cross-currency swaps, interest rate swaps, and local currency loans, the instrument addresses the financial uncertainty caused by currency mismatches in capital-intensive clean infrastructure projects. A proposed pilot requires USD 250 million in donor risk capital to provide up to USD 1 billion in hedging capacity, potentially supporting USD 1.5 billion in clean investment projects and reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 1.7 MtCO2.

The document examines the critical role of National Governing Councils (NGCs) as the link between political leadership and technical research in the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It identifies significant inconsistencies in NGC size, composition, and legal status across participating states, which hinder the consistency and legitimacy of Country Self-Assessment Reports (CSAR). The brief argues that meaningful independence from government, clear legal mandates, and robust technical support from the APRM Secretariat are essential for the mechanism's success. It recommends that the Secretariat develop coherent guidelines and that civil society organisations (CSOs) hold governments accountable for the composition of these councils.

The document examines the governance of Ghana's oil discovery at Cape Three Points in 2007, focusing on the intersection of state management and civil society oversight. It details the legal frameworks established to manage revenues, such as the Ghana Stabilization Fund and Ghana Heritage Fund, while highlighting systemic challenges including political patronage, lack of transparency in the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), and the 'Dutch Disease' affecting non-oil sectors. The authors emphasize that while civil society organizations (CSOs), particularly the Civil Society Platform on Oil and Gas, have influenced policy and monitoring, they are hampered by funding shortages and technical skill gaps. The paper concludes that strengthening state-civil society cooperation is essential to ensure oil wealth supports sustainable national development rather than fueling corruption or instability.

The document examines South Africa's role as Africa's representative in the G-20 and BRICS, arguing that its effectiveness is limited by domestic challenges and a competitive relationship with Nigeria. It traces the historical trajectory of South Africa-Nigeria relations from the anti-apartheid struggle to post-1999 democratic cooperation and subsequent diplomatic rifts. The author contends that a reinvigorated partnership between these two pivotal states is essential to avoid Africa's marginalisation in global economic governance and recommends evidence-based research and a shared developmental agenda to move beyond rivalry.

The document examines the diverse range of 'Sahel strategies' produced by multilateral actors, noting a general consensus on objectives—security, development, governance, and education—but significant variations in geographical scope and implementation capacity. It highlights that while some organisations possess substantial internal funding, others rely on external contributions, creating a risk that more powerful actors may dominate the region. The brief emphasizes the need for detailed action plans and transparent monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to avoid redundancy and ensure that interventions meet the needs of populations in core countries like Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.

The report analyzes the power dynamics of Africa's five most influential states, using the Hillebrand-Herman-Moyer Index (HHMI) to forecast capabilities. It finds that while Nigeria and Ethiopia are expected to increase their power capabilities, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa are likely to stagnate or decline. The authors distinguish between raw capabilities and 'power projection,' noting that Ethiopia and South Africa currently punch above their weight, while Nigeria and Algeria punch below theirs. The analysis emphasizes that governance deficits and domestic instability often hinder the translation of material capabilities into actual regional or global influence.

The document serves as an appendix to a study on the relationship between majority religion and armed conflict. It provides detailed datasets on the majority religions of countries as of 2010, the incidence of intrastate armed conflict by religion between 1991 and 2012, and a comprehensive list of opposition groups in intrastate conflicts from 1946 to 2013. It specifically examines the prevalence of Islamist insurgents and the conflict history of the ten countries with the largest Muslim populations.

The document analyzes how South Africa's economic and political dominance affects its relations with Southern African neighbors. It highlights a 'forked approach' where South Africa employs quiet diplomacy in political matters but is perceived as assertive and mercantilist in economic engagements. While its peacekeeping efforts are praised, the paper notes a gap between the region's expectations of South African leadership and the actual funding and capacity constraints of the South African National Defence Force.

The document argues that African regional integration remains a state-centric process, largely excluding citizens and businesses due to an information deficit and a lack of organized non-governmental constituencies. While some countries like Mauritius show successful business-government integration, most of the continent suffers from low public awareness and underdeveloped civil society organizations. The author recommends public education, high-quality research into stakeholder needs, and infrastructure upgrades to ensure that opening borders provides tangible benefits to the informal sector and private enterprise.

The briefing examines the precarious state of elections in West Africa in 2015, highlighting how insurgency in Nigeria, constitutional disputes in Togo, electoral list controversies in Benin, fragile security in Côte d’Ivoire, funding gaps in Burkina Faso, and the Ebola crisis in Guinea threaten the legitimacy and stability of the democratic process.

The paper critiques the 'liberal peace paradigm' in Africa, suggesting that external peacebuilding often reinforces autocratic governance by focusing on state-building and technical capacity rather than addressing systemic inequality and patronage networks. It argues that current conflicts are driven by the collective denial of individual rights to maintain power configurations, and that peacebuilding must shift toward a rights-based approach to be effective.