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ASSESSMENT OF ENI’S CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report finds that Eni's strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over renewable energy investments. Eni's projected 2030 production levels and LNG capacity expansions significantly overshoot NZE requirements, while its diversification into renewables remains marginal, representing only 5.8% of its projected 2030 energy mix.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSMENT OF TOTALENERGIES’ CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report argues that TotalEnergies' investment and production strategies prioritize oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over climate solutions, leading to a significant overshoot of the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSMENT OF EXXONMOBIL’S CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report finds that ExxonMobil's strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over sustainable energy, with 2030 production targets significantly exceeding NZE levels and a lack of investment in renewable power.
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Document type: Report
Proposed CBAM Amendments 1
The document analyzes proposed EU amendments to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) intended to simplify compliance for EU importers. While the briefing notes that changes to the scope and payment timing may have minimal material impact on African exporters, it warns that modifications to 'default values' for embedded emissions and carbon pricing could negatively affect exporters. Specifically, the shift toward global averages for the most carbon-intensive countries rather than EU-specific benchmarks may increase costs for African producers lacking reliable data. The report concludes that the amendments primarily benefit EU importers and may penalize African exporters who lack the administrative capacity to provide actual installation data.
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Document type: Briefing
More than elections: what’s really driving protests in Mozambique
The research paper asserts that while the 2024 general elections sparked unrest, the primary drivers of protest in Mozambique are declining living standards, high youth unemployment, and systemic corruption under the Frelimo party. It highlights a rise in poverty from 46% to 65% over the last decade and the lasting impact of the $2.2 billion hidden debt scandal. The author notes a shift in public action, with citizens increasingly protesting against private sector entities, such as Kenmare, TotalEnergies, and Desheng Port, over land rights and infrastructure failures. The paper concludes that stability requires a genuine dialogue including opposition figure Venâncio Mondlane, warning that continued instability could disrupt regional trade via Maputo Port.
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Document type: Research paper
The Fall of Bukavu: Rwanda, M23 and the Battle for Influence in the Eastern DRC
In February 2025, M23 rebels captured Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province in the eastern DRC, following the previous seizure of Goma. The document argues that Rwanda's support for M23 is driven by a combination of national security concerns—specifically the threat posed by the Democratic Forces of the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)—and economic interests related to minerals like gold, tin, and tantalum. It further notes that rivalry with Uganda and a perceived weakness in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have emboldened Rwanda's actions. Despite calls from the US, France, the UK, and China for Rwandan forces to withdraw, the international response remains tepid, with few concrete sanctions or aid cuts implemented.
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Document type: Research paper
Pre-SONA Considerations for Moving SA onto a Growth Trajectory
The briefing argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions, professionalising the public service, and enhancing electoral accountability. It calls for a cohesive foreign policy to restore regional leadership within SADC and the AfCFTA, a decisive plan to combat corruption and gender-based violence, and the effective operationalisation of the Climate Change Act through local government reform and private-public partnerships.
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Document type: Briefing
Pre-SONA considerations for moving South Africa onto a growth trajectory
The report argues that South Africa's economic growth is contingent upon strengthening political institutions and accountability. It recommends a ten-point plan focusing on electoral reform, the professionalization of the public service, and the governance redesign of state-owned enterprises like Eskom and Transnet. Regionally, it urges a more proactive role in SADC to defend electoral integrity and improve security mechanisms. On climate, it advocates for the operationalization of the Climate Change Act and a just energy transition through public-private partnerships.
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Document type: Report
The State of BCAs 2025
The report examines the implementation of the EU and UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) and the preliminary findings of Australia's Carbon Leakage Review. It highlights the shift from free allocation of emissions permits to border adjustments to prevent carbon leakage, where emissions reductions in one country are offset by increases elsewhere. The EU CBAM is set for full implementation by 2026, and the UK CBAM by 2027. Australia is considering a BCA as a 'robust underpinning' to its Safeguard Mechanism. The document also analyzes WTO discussions from 2020 to 2024, noting a transition from general concerns about protectionism and WTO compliance toward specific discussions on cooperation and interoperability.
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Document type: Report
Repositioning Africa in a rapidly changing global order
The report argues that Africa remains hindered by colonial legacies, financial dependency, and weak institutional leadership. It highlights critical crises in food security, youth unemployment, and rising conflict, while critiquing the AU's leadership selection process and its focus on reparations over immediate structural reforms. The document recommends a more proactive AU Commission, a reformed Peace and Security Architecture, and a unified foreign policy to transition Africa from a passive observer to a powerful global actor.
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Document type: Report
A Traditional Knowledge Database for Mozambique
The document outlines a proposal for a national Traditional Knowledge Database in Mozambique to prevent the loss and misappropriation of biodiversity-related knowledge. It details a multi-tiered access system—ranging from community representatives to the general public—and an interoperability framework designed to link with scientific repositories like BioNoMo and RECIMO. The proposal emphasizes community-centric governance, including Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) and traditional dispute resolution, to ensure that knowledge holders maintain control over their cultural heritage and benefit from its use.
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Document type: Report
A Community Guide to Safeguarding Traditional Knowledge in Mozambique
The document serves as a practical toolkit for Mozambican communities to safeguard traditional knowledge through legal mechanisms like Geographic Indicators (GIs) and Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) regulations. It details the process of forming producer associations for GI registration, negotiating Prior Informed Consent (PIC) for research, and developing Community Protocols to govern interactions with outsiders. The guide emphasizes the role of knowledge holders in maintaining secrecy and the importance of tiered cost-sharing models to make legal protections accessible to vulnerable community members.
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Document type: Guide
Base de Dados de Conhecimento Tradicional para Moçambique
The document outlines a proposal for a community-centered national database to safeguard Mozambique's traditional knowledge on biodiversity. It identifies critical regulatory gaps in digital documentation and proposes a multi-tiered access system to prevent misappropriation. The framework emphasizes interoperability with existing scientific repositories like BioNoMo and RECIMO, and integrates a robust community-led governance model for consent and dispute resolution.
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Document type: Report
Protecção do Conhecimento Tradicional: Princípios, Práticas e Referências Essenciais
The document outlines the importance of protecting traditional knowledge in Mozambique, highlighting risks such as biopiracy and commercial exploitation. It defines the role of academia in ensuring ethical research through informed consent and benefit-sharing, and recommends three key frameworks: the SADC Research Ethics Guidelines, the International Society of Ethnobiology (ISE) Code of Ethics, and the research ethics regulations of Eduardo Mondlane University.
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Document type: Guide
Energy Transition Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document argues that while the energy transition is accelerating, current efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C, and the shift in energy demand will fundamentally reshape global trade and geopolitics. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that emerging markets and developing economies outside China account for only about 15% of global clean energy spending. The report identifies several trade-related barriers, including protectionist tariffs on electric vehicles, divergent technical standards, and the persistence of fossil fuel subsidies, which reached $7 trillion globally in 2023. It specifically warns that Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanisms (BCAs) and Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions in investment treaties may disproportionately burden developing nations. To achieve an equitable transition, the authors recommend reforming WTO subsidy rules, increasing financial support for local value addition in critical minerals, and coordinating the phase-out of fossil fuel production.
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Document type: Briefing
Mapping Africa’s Green Mineral Partnerships
The report maps nearly one hundred agreements on critical minerals between African states and global actors, highlighting the strategic competition for resources. It identifies a lack of transparency in these deals and notes that while China and Russia are prominent, other actors like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are expanding their footprints. The analysis emphasizes that these partnerships often reflect broader geopolitical and historical ties rather than just economic needs.
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Document type: Report
Drill Baby Drill: Why Oil and Gas Majors Should Be No Exception in Exclusion Policies
The statement contends that integrated oil and gas majors are not transitioning to sustainable energy and should be excluded from financial support. Citing the Global Oil and Gas Exit List (GOGEL), it highlights that 95% of oil and gas companies worldwide have plans for new projects, with major European firms like BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies increasing production or expanding short-term plans. The author argues that these companies are diverting capital away from clean energy, with the three European majors projected to allocate less than a third of future investments to low-carbon activities, contradicting IEA 1.5°C scenarios.
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Document type: Statement
Urban Food Environments
The document argues that Africa's rapid urban growth necessitates immediate investment in food environments to prevent unhealthy path dependencies. It identifies a funding gap of US$100 million over the next five years across four key initiatives: AfriFOODlinks, the Africa Food Environment Research Network (FERN), the Living Off-Grid Food & Infrastructure Collaboration (LOGIC), and the Resilient Municipal Market Fund (ReMark). The brief emphasizes that urban food environments are shaped by physical, economic, social, and infrastructural factors, and suggests aligning these with agroecological principles to improve resilience, equity, and resource efficiency.
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Document type: Briefing
Land Tenure, Land Reform and Agroecological Transition
The document argues that secure land tenure is a prerequisite for agroecological transitions in Africa, as it provides the security necessary for farmers to invest in long-term sustainable practices. It highlights how colonial legacies of land dispossession continue to create systemic inequalities and tenure insecurity across different African regions. The brief provides specific analysis of land systems in countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Benin, Uganda, and Malawi, noting that while some national policies recognize agroecology, institutional support often remains tied to industrial, input-intensive agriculture. It concludes with recommendations for donors to shift toward long-term, locally led, and gender-sensitive funding models that prioritize land rights and social equity.
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Document type: Policy brief
Just Transition Planning Masterclass
The Just Transition Planning Masterclass provided practitioners from Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, and Namibia with frameworks to ensure nature-based solutions (NbS) are equitable. The program highlighted that while NbS are often seen as 'win-win', they can cause socio-economic disruptions, such as loss of employment in extractive industries or displacement of communities without formal land tenure. Participants explored the Climate Investment Fund’s Just Transition Planning Toolbox and identified strategies to mitigate negative impacts, including livelihood diversification, re-skilling, and social protection measures. The report also notes barriers to implementation, such as limited institutional capacity, financial constraints, and community mistrust.
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Document type: After-action report