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Justice during armed conflict: A new dataset on government and rebel strategies
The authors present the During-Conflict Justice (DCJ) dataset, which catalogues 2,205 justice processes across 204 internal armed conflicts in 108 countries between 1946 and 2011. The research identifies that DCJ is a common tool, appearing in over 60% of conflicts since WWII, with governments being the primary adopters (70.4%). The study finds that democratic governments are more likely to use DCJ, particularly trials, truth commissions, and reparations, compared to autocracies. Rebel groups tend to use DCJ more frequently when fighting democracies and as their own relative military strength increases. Analysis suggests that government-initiated DCJ is correlated with a reduction in battle deaths in the following year and a higher likelihood of the conflict ending in a negotiated settlement rather than a military victory.
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Document type: Research paper
Mediation as politics: How nations leverage peace engagements?
The author argues that mediation is not merely a tool for conflict resolution but a strategic foreign policy instrument that allows middle powers to create 'extra political power space'. By engaging in mediation, these states can build stronger Best Alternatives to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA), create issue linkages for 'logrolling' with senior allies, and establish network ties. The paper illustrates this through an analysis of Turkey's mediation efforts under the AK Party government between 2002 and 2011, suggesting that Turkey leveraged its role as a peace broker to secure alliance benefits from the US and consolidate domestic political power.
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Document type: Research paper
Nonstate actors, fragmentation, and conflict processes
The document argues that treating nonstate actors as unitary entities in civil conflict analysis creates a gap between conceptual frames and empirical reality. It proposes a 'disaggregation' approach to examine how internal divisions, factionalism, and shifting coalitions influence the initiation, escalation, and termination of violence. The authors highlight that fragmentation can either increase violence through in-group competition or facilitate peace through state co-optation of specific factions. The text calls for more disaggregated data to better understand the dynamics of nonstate actors, including the role of external state intervention in precipitating or exacerbating internal splits.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends in the Middle East, 1989–2019
The Middle East has hosted the world's deadliest conflicts over the last decade, with Syria being the deadliest since 1989. While state-based conflicts and battle-related deaths declined in 2019, internationalized civil wars reached record levels since 2015. Non-state conflicts peaked in 2014 and have since declined, though they remain higher than pre-2011 levels. One-sided violence fatalities doubled from 2018 to 2019, driven by IS, Syrian insurgents, and Iran. Despite an increase in ceasefires, peace agreements are rare in the region compared to Africa and Asia, with only one full peace agreement recorded between 1989 and 2018.
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Document type: Research paper
Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946–2019
The document provides a comprehensive overview of global conflict trends from 1989 to 2019, noting a record high of 54 state-based conflicts in 2019. It highlights the significant role of the Islamic State (IS) in driving recent conflict increases and the prevalence of internationalized civil conflicts. While battle-related deaths have generally decreased over the last 20 years, specific hotspots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia remain deadly. The paper also analyzes the decline in peace agreements since 2015 and the persistence of non-state conflicts, particularly violent drug cartel activity in Latin America and communal violence in Africa.
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Document type: Research paper
Resources, Regimes and Rebellion
The author replicates and extends the civil war model of Collier & Hoeffler (2002), finding that while natural resources correlate with conflict, the drivers differ by region. In the Middle East, the 'greed' explanation—where rebels fight to seize resources—is less plausible than a 'rentier-state' model, where oil-funded authoritarianism, corruption, and slow growth generate grievances. The study also finds that democracy is significantly and negatively related to civil conflict, a finding absent in the original Collier & Hoeffler analysis.
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Document type: Research paper
Urban Social Disorder 3.0: A global, city-level event dataset of political mobilization and disorder
The authors present Urban Social Disorder 3.0, a global event dataset covering 186 cities from 1960-2014, containing 13,324 events. The study finds that global urban social disorder increased after the early 2000s, driven largely by Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Contrary to some previous research, the authors find a positive relationship between city population size and the frequency of lethal disorder events, while urban growth rates show no such association. The analysis also suggests that autocratic regimes may be more effective at suppressing lethal urban disorder than democratic ones.
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Document type: Research paper
Energy for a Shared Development Agenda: The three scenarios
The fact sheet outlines three scenarios: a Baseline scenario (BAS) where business-as-usual leads to a 98% likelihood of temperatures increasing by more than 2°C; a Basic Energy Access scenario (BEA) that provides basic energy for all while limiting global GHG emissions to 1,300 Gt CO2; and a Shared Development Agenda scenario (SDA) which aims for a more balanced global income distribution with per capita incomes of at least $10,000 for all nations by 2050.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Irresponsible Science?
The Energy Institute (EI) maintains extensive financial and corporate ties to the fossil fuel industry, particularly oil and gas, across its investments, event sponsorships, corporate memberships, and governing council. While the EI adopted a strategic theme of "supporting the transition to a lower carbon world" in 2016 and has some professional guidance on environmental issues, it lacks an overarching environmental or ethical investment policy. The study finds that fossil fuel corporations heavily sponsor its major events, such as International Petroleum Week, and make up approximately 40% of its corporate members. The EI's governing council also shows strong links to the oil and gas sector, with nearly half of its members having such backgrounds. Links to the arms industry were found to be low, though the lack of an ethical investment policy suggests some indirect exposure is likely.
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Document type: Case study
B50 : A False Solution Will Lead to Multiple Crises & Inequality
The document criticizes the Indonesian government's push for B50 and Bioethanol (E20) as a response to Middle East oil supply crises. It claims these policies will lead to massive deforestation, carbon emission increases, and the 'whitewashing' of illegal palm oil plantations. The author asserts that the program benefits conglomerates and creates trade dependency on the US, proposing instead a shift toward public transportation to reduce fuel demand.
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Document type: Statement
Drylands, People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services
The report provides a global, map-based analysis of dryland ecosystems, examining their capacity to provide essential goods and services such as food, water, and carbon storage to support human livelihoods.
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Document type: Report
Juice From Concentrate
The report argues that Concentrating Solar Thermal power (CST) is a viable large-scale, zero-carbon alternative to coal-fired power, particularly when combined with thermal storage to meet baseload demand. While currently more expensive than coal, costs are expected to decline through technology learning, R&D in materials and optical design, and economies of scale from larger plants. The document highlights that a carbon price of approximately $115 per ton of CO2 would make CST with 6 hours of storage economically competitive with coal. It emphasizes the need for stable policy support, such as feed-in tariffs, to bridge the current cost gap and calls for increased deployment in rapidly developing economies like China and India to alter their emissions trajectories. Additionally, the report notes that widespread CST adoption requires improved transmission infrastructure, specifically federal coordination in the U.S. and links between the EU and North Africa.
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Document type: Report
Shifting Currents: Opportunities For Low-Carbon Electric Cities In The Global South
The analysis identifies 105 cities with populations over one million across 34 Global South countries where electrification is currently a viable low-carbon strategy. Suitability is determined by a minimum 90 percent urban electricity access rate and a carbon intensity of electricity supply below 600 tCO2e/GWh. While all South American cities meet these criteria, suitability is significantly lower in sub-Saharan Africa (3 out of 40 cities) and South and East Asia (26 out of 202 cities).
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Document type: Research paper
Contributions to Global Warming
The document provides a map where land areas are proportional to historic carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion from 1900 to 1999. It identifies the United States as the largest contributor at 30.3%, followed by a group comprising China, India, and developing Asia, the Middle East, and other developing Asian nations at 27.7%. Africa's contribution is listed at 2.5%.
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Document type: Fact sheet
REEFS AT RISK
The report 'Reefs at Risk' assesses the global status of coral reefs, finding that 58% are potentially threatened by human activities. It identifies overexploitation and coastal development as the primary drivers of risk, with Southeast Asia being the most threatened region. The study utilizes a map-based indicator to flag high-risk areas, particularly biodiversity hot spots, and evaluates the current state of marine protected areas (MPAs).
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Document type: Report
Five facts you might not know about groundwater
Groundwater is the most abundant freshwater source, supporting 40% of irrigated crop production and over 25% of the global population's drinking water. However, it is being consumed at unsustainable rates, with 20% of river basins currently overdrafted and over 50% at risk by 2050. Over-extraction leads to saltwater intrusion, dried-up wells, and land subsidence. Sustainable management requires measuring extraction, setting volumetric caps, and implementing natural or managed recharge solutions, as demonstrated by the Edwards Aquifer in Texas.
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Document type: Fact sheet