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The report highlights a critical gap in Brazil's Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), which often ignore indirect environmental effects of transportation projects. Using a 'market access' approach, the authors demonstrate that infrastructure improvements can drive deforestation far from the project site by reducing freight costs and incentivizing agricultural expansion. For example, while the Ferrogrão railroad may reduce direct carbon emissions, its indirect impact is estimated to increase deforestation by 2,000 km², releasing over 60 million tCOe. The report recommends that policymakers use geoprocessing and statistical tools to identify these broader areas of influence to ensure sustainable infrastructure development.

The whitepaper highlights a critical gap in how Brazil assesses the environmental impact of transport infrastructure, specifically the failure of Technical, Economic, and Environmental Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) to account for indirect effects. It proposes a 'market access' approach, combining geoprocessing and statistical analysis, to quantify how reduced transport costs induce agricultural expansion and deforestation far from the actual project site. Using the Ferrogrão railroad as an example, the authors demonstrate that indirect carbon costs can vastly outweigh direct emissions reductions. The document recommends that EVTEAs and EIAs adopt robust methodologies to identify both direct and indirect areas of influence to ensure sustainable infrastructure development.

The Ferrogrão (EF-170) project is a proposed 930 km railroad designed to lower soy export costs from Mato Grosso by routing cargo through the Amazon rainforest to the Miritituba terminal. While intended to reduce carbon emissions, the project faces significant socio-environmental challenges, including a 2017 proposal to withdraw public access from BR-163/MT/PA that would have impacted nearly one million hectares of forests in conservation units. Despite legal challenges to environmental studies and public consultations between 2017 and 2018, the project's concession model was approved in July 2020. The analysis highlights a tension between the Brazilian government's push for infrastructure-led economic recovery and a global trend toward more rigid, sustainable socio-environmental investment standards, which are increasingly viewed by investors as a means to reduce financial risk.

The Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzed the Ferrogrão railway project, finding significant gaps in its economic planning, socio-environmental governance, and risk assessment. The project, intended to lower soy export costs from Mato Grosso, faces risks of inducing 2,043 km² of deforestation. The analysis highlights a lack of transparency and a failure to align the project's technical studies with international socio-environmental standards.

The report identifies 12 cases of fire in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in August 2020, totaling 20,064 hectares of prior deforestation. It links these fires to the preparation of land for pasture or crop production and highlights that major traders like Bunge, Cargill, and JBS are connected to farms engaging in these practices.

The document analyzes the current lack of consensus and transparency in how Brazilian government agencies and environmental assessments delimit the 'area of influence' for infrastructure projects. It highlights the risks of relying solely on distance-based radii, which may overlook indirect economic impacts, and proposes a 'market access' methodology to more accurately identify affected regions. The authors recommend separating the conceptual definition of the area of influence from its physical delimitation and integrating environmental parameters earlier in the project cycle, specifically within Feasibility Studies (EVTEA).

The policy brief estimates that the construction of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railway will induce the deforestation of 2,043 square kilometers of native vegetation in Mato Grosso if no mitigation measures are implemented. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tonnes of carbon, representing an environmental cost of approximately US$ 1.9 billion, which is about 60% of the project's estimated implementation cost of US$ 3.1 billion. The analysis uses a 'market access' approach to show how improved logistics for grain producers will increase demand for land, specifically affecting 38 municipalities.

The document evaluates the environmental risks of the EF-170 Ferrogrão railroad, estimating that without mitigation, the project will induce 2,043 square kilometers of deforestation in Mato Grosso. This land-use change is projected to release 75 million tons of carbon, creating an environmental cost of approximately US$1.9 billion, which represents about 60% of the railroad's estimated US$3.1 billion implementation cost.

The report provides a detailed 'radiography' of how Brazilian states are implementing the 2012 Forest Code. It identifies the analysis and validation of the CAR as the primary bottleneck and notes that while some states like Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso, and Pará have made significant progress, others remain severely delayed in regulating and operationalizing the PRA. The document also highlights the role of the Brazilian Forest Service (SFB) in developing technological tools to scale these processes.

The document analyzes the 2019 Amazon fires as a result of corporate power and the expansion of the agricultural frontier, specifically linked to the interests of transnational corporations (TNCs). It contends that the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement will exacerbate this trend by increasing demand for commodities like soy and beef, leading to further deforestation and human rights violations. The report criticizes the Bolsonaro administration for dismantling environmental protections and argues that the agreement's environmental clauses are non-binding and insufficient to prevent climate catastrophe.

The report provides a comprehensive 'radiography' of how Brazilian states are implementing the Forest Code. It identifies a significant gap between the high rates of CAR registration and the slow progress of CAR validation and PRA implementation. While some states in the North and Center-West regions are advanced, the Northeast region lags behind. The document highlights systemic barriers, including a lack of technical resources, poor quality of self-declared data, and a heavy dependence on the federal government's SICAR system. It also examines state-specific rules for restoring Permanent Preservation Areas (APP) and Legal Reserves (RL), noting wide variations in restoration deadlines and methodologies.

The report finds that current efforts by companies and governments are insufficient to meet the 2020 goal of eliminating deforestation from agricultural supply chains. While some progress has been made in palm oil and timber, commitments for soy and cattle remain low, and reporting on implementation is often inadequate and self-reported. The document highlights a shift toward jurisdictional approaches in producer countries and the introduction of demand-side regulations in consumer regions like the EU and California.

The report assesses gender inequalities in Brazil, specifically within the context of forest conservation and REDD+ implementation. It identifies significant gaps in women's political representation, land ownership, and decision-making power in forest management, despite advances in education and health. The document recommends a gender-responsive Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), the establishment of quotas for the Floresta+ Pilot Program, and the hiring of a gender specialist to ensure equitable benefit-sharing and participation in climate funding activities.

The report examines the adoption of no-till farming, tractors, and fertilizers in Brazil from 2006 to 2017. It finds that while no-till farming has become more spatially decentralized, tractor use has become more concentrated in wealthy, urbanized regions, and fertilizer use has increased without a clear spatial pattern.

The report identifies three distinct patterns of agricultural technology adoption in Brazil from 2006 to 2017. The Direct Planting System (DPS) is converging, becoming more widespread across the country. Tractor use is diverging, with increased concentration in wealthier, urbanized regions of the South and Southeast. Fertilizer use has increased overall but lacks a clear spatial pattern, with growth scattered across diverse regions including the Cerrado and Caatinga.

The Responsible Commodities Facility (RCF) is a proposed debt fund designed to halt agricultural expansion into the Brazilian Cerrado by providing low-interest loans to farmers who produce soy and corn on degraded lands. The facility aims to raise US$ 300 million through green bonds to provide crop financing and land restoration loans, utilizing blockchain for traceability and a dedicated exchange to link producers with international sustainable buyers. Over 10 years, the RCF targets the restoration of 1.2 million hectares of land and the avoidance of 55 million tonnes of carbon emissions.

The Socio-Climate Benefits Fund (SCBF) is a proposed investment vehicle designed to combat small-scale deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It operates by funding a 'New Company' that provides upfront capital, technical training, and market access to smallholders who implement sustainable agroforestry systems (SAFs) on their land. The model utilizes a vertical integration approach, similar to poultry or swine supply chains, where the New Company and smallholders co-own the harvest. The initial pilot targets the state of Acre, aiming to restore 12,000 hectares of forest and engage up to 3,000 properties over a decade. The fund seeks a mix of grants, concessional debt, and equity to overcome barriers such as lack of long-term finance and market access for small-scale farmers.

The document outlines four key actions for state, provincial, and regional governments to address land use's role in climate change: sustainable land management, open space conservation, agricultural methane capture, and regenerative agriculture. It emphasizes that land use is best managed at the subnational level to capture rural impacts and cross-jurisdictional effects, noting that while agriculture, forestry, and other land use account for 24% of global emissions, the sector can offset this by 20% through carbon removal.

The document examines the 'jurisdictional approach' (JA)—a comprehensive, government-led strategy for forest and land-use governance across defined political territories. It argues that subnational jurisdictions (states, provinces, districts) are critical for scaling emissions reductions because they are closer to land users and possess the authority to shape land-use decisions. Through case studies in Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, and Mexico, the paper highlights that while JA fosters multi-stakeholder collaboration and policy innovation, it is frequently hampered by political turnover, limited public sector capacity, and a lack of tangible financial incentives. The authors conclude that JA is not a 'silver bullet' but a necessary recognition of the role of multi-level government in protecting forests and enhancing livelihoods.

The 2017 update to the New York Declaration on Forests Goal 2 assessment finds that while corporate commitments to reduce deforestation in agricultural supply chains are increasing, their scope and ambition remain variable. Progress is most evident in the palm oil and timber sectors, where certification standards are more prevalent, while the cattle and soy sectors lag behind. Although traceability systems are improving—with 81% of producer companies having them in place by 2016—many companies still struggle to verify if their supply is free of converted High-Conservation-Value (HCV) or High-Carbon-Stock (HCS) forests. Financial institution engagement remains limited, and direct data on the impact of these commitments on deforestation rates is currently unavailable, though new monitoring tools like GFW-Commodities and Trase are being developed.