Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon

This whitepaper by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) argues that current environmental assessments for transportation infrastructure in the Amazon fail to account for indirect effects, leading to an underestimation of ecological footprints. The authors propose a 'market access' approach using geoprocessing and statistical analysis to better quantify how reduced transport costs drive deforestation and agricultural expansion far beyond the immediate project site.

• Current instruments used to delimit the area of influence for infrastructure projects, specifically Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), lack transparency in their methodology for identifying indirect effects. This results in the delimitation of areas that may not reflect all the actual effects caused by a project.
• Ignoring indirect environmental costs leads to three primary failures: overestimating the social return of investments in feasibility studies, potentially prioritizing harmful projects due to a lack of heterogeneity in cost analysis, and failing to implement sufficient mitigation and compensation measures for the total environmental damage.
• The 'market access' approach, adapted by CPI/PUC-Rio, quantifies environmental impacts by analyzing bilateral trade costs between municipalities and ports. Analysis of the Legal Amazon from 1985 to 2018 indicates that a 1% increase in market access leads to a 0.2% to 0.4% increase in deforestation.
• Research indicates that changes in accessibility were responsible for 34% of the deforestation observed in the Amazon between 1990 and 2017.
• The EF-170 (Ferrogrão) railroad project illustrates the disparity between direct and indirect impacts. While the project is estimated to reduce carbon emissions by 1,000,000 tCOe directly, its indirect effects are projected to increase deforestation by approximately 2,000 km2, releasing over 60,000,000 tCOe.
• The authors recommend that EVTEAs incorporate evaluations of indirect environmental risks to identify areas of indirect influence early in the project cycle, and that EIAs use robust methodologies to ensure mitigation and compensation cover the entire area affected by changes in economic, social, and environmental dynamics.

APA

Bragança, A., Araújo, R., & Assunção, J. (2020). Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf

Chicago

Bragança, Arthur, Rafael Araújo, and Juliano Assunção. Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bragança |first1=Arthur |last2=Araújo |first2=Rafael |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=October 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bragana2020measuring, author = {Bragança, Arthur and Araújo, Rafael and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }