Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon

The report highlights a critical gap in Brazil's Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), which often ignore indirect environmental effects of transportation projects. Using a 'market access' approach, the authors demonstrate that infrastructure improvements can drive deforestation far from the project site by reducing freight costs and incentivizing agricultural expansion. For example, while the Ferrogrão railroad may reduce direct carbon emissions, its indirect impact is estimated to increase deforestation by 2,000 km², releasing over 60 million tCOe. The report recommends that policymakers use geoprocessing and statistical tools to identify these broader areas of influence to ensure sustainable infrastructure development.

• Current Brazilian environmental assessment instruments, specifically Feasibility Studies (EVTEA) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), lack transparency in their methodology for delimiting areas of indirect influence, often leading to an underestimation of a project's total ecological footprint.
• Transportation infrastructure improvements can trigger indirect environmental degradation far from the investment site by reducing freight costs, which encourages producers to expand agricultural production and convert forests into pastures or cropland.
• Analysis of the Legal Amazon between 1985 and 2018 indicates that a 1% increase in market access leads to a 0.2% to 0.4% increase in deforestation, with changes in accessibility accounting for 34% of observed deforestation from 1990 to 2017.
• The EF-170 (Ferrogrão) railroad project illustrates the disparity between direct and indirect impacts: while it is estimated to reduce carbon emissions by 1,000,000 tCOe due to lower emissions from trains compared to trucks, its indirect effects are projected to increase deforestation by approximately 2,000 km², releasing over 60,000,000 tCOe.
• The report recommends that EVTEAs incorporate evaluations of indirect environmental risks for preliminary identification, and that EIAs adopt robust methodologies to propose mitigation and compensation measures for the entire area affected by changes in economic and environmental dynamics.

APA

Bragança, A., Araújo, R., & Assunção, J. (2020). Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf

Chicago

Bragança, Arthur, Rafael Araújo, and Juliano Assunção. Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bragança |first1=Arthur |last2=Araújo |first2=Rafael |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=October 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bragana2020measuring, author = {Bragança, Arthur and Araújo, Rafael and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{Measuring the Indirect Effects of Transportation Infrastructure in the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = oct, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/White-Paper-Measuring-Indirect-Effects-of-Transportation-Infrastructure-in-the-Amazon.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }