Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes Kenya's development path toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' with eight ambitious sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings highlight that while Kenya has a resilient economy and leads Africa in geothermal energy, it faces significant hurdles in corruption, infrastructure, and public debt. The analysis suggests that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and improvements in governance would have the most substantial positive impacts on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. A combined approach of all scenarios could increase GDP by 123.1% over the current path and drastically reduce carbon emissions by transitioning fully to renewables.

The document analyzes the ESG impacts of the Lamu Port in Kenya and the Kuantan Port in Malaysia, both developed under China's Belt and Road Initiative. It finds that both projects caused significant environmental damage, including the loss of mangroves in Kenya and pollution from bauxite mining in Malaysia. Socio-economic issues include unpaid compensation for displaced communities in Kenya and public health concerns in Malaysia. The briefing argues that these projects often prioritize political elite interests over pragmatic alternatives, leading to governance failures and questionable economic rationales.

The document assesses the decarbonisation of Kenya's power sector, highlighting the role of geothermal, hydro, wind, and solar energy. It warns that the Lamu coal power plant could cause oversupply and reduce system flexibility, while noting that further integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and distributed energy resources (DER) will require increased flexibility and continuous investment in clean capacity.

The policy brief examines the tension between Africa's need for universal energy access and the competing influences of China's coal-focused Belt and Road Initiative and the EU's green transition strategy. It highlights 'hotspots' of coal development in countries like South Africa and Kenya, noting that social resistance and civil society can halt fossil fuel projects. The author argues that the EU can better compete with China by moving beyond technology transfer to support social innovation, transparency, and mutually respectful business relationships that prioritize local job creation and industrialization over aid.

Natural Justice pays tribute to Mzee Abubakar Al-Amudy, the co-founder and long-term leader of Save Lamu, who passed away on June 21, 2020. Al-Amudy is credited with leading the community's successful legal challenge against the National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) regarding the environmental license for the Amu Power coal plant in Lamu. He also played a key role in the development of a Biocultural Community Protocol (BCP) to help the local community respond to government development projects.

The document details public consultations in Garissa County regarding the re-alignment of the Lokichar to Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline (LLCOP) to avoid Kenya Defence Force (KDF) barracks at Modikare. Stakeholders raised concerns over land ownership, compensation for community-owned land without title deeds, the impact on grazing lands and acacia trees, and the environmental effects of pipeline heating and generator emissions. The project team clarified that the pipeline is a closed system, will be buried to allow grazing, and that land acquisition is a separate process managed by the National Land Commission (NLC).

The document details a stakeholder meeting in Garissa County regarding the re-routing of the Lokichar to Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline (LLCOP) to avoid Kenya Defence Force barracks. Key discussions centered on the technical specifications of pipeline stations, the use of fuel generators and their emissions, land acquisition processes for pastoralist communities, and the environmental impact of subterranean heating on plant germination.

The submission argues for a paradigm shift toward people-centered development and rights-based conservation, emphasizing the need to decentralize power and energy systems. It highlights the role of indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) in preventing habitat loss and calls for the formal recognition of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (ICCAs). The document specifically critiques large-scale extractivism and infrastructure projects in Kenya, such as the Marsabit wind power plant and Lamu coal plant, advocating for Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) and the integration of traditional knowledge. It also links the COVID-19 pandemic to environmental degradation, suggesting that the global coordination used to fight the virus should be redirected toward addressing the planetary crisis.

The study finds that geothermal energy is significantly more cost-effective and sustainable than coal for Kenya's electricity sector. It highlights that geothermal power has a lower Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of approximately USD 10 cents/kWh compared to USD 29.5 cents/kWh for coal. The report warns that planned coal plants in Lamu and Kitui could increase electricity costs by up to 50% due to surplus capacity and result in approximately 1,620 premature deaths by 2065 due to air pollution. Geothermal energy is also found to create three times more domestic employment per MW than coal and aligns better with Kenya's target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below business as usual by 2030.

The document outlines the ESIA process and technical specifications for the Lokichar-Lamu Crude Oil Pipeline, a joint venture between the Kenyan government and a consortium including Tullow Oil, Africa Oil Turnana, and Total Oil. The pipeline is designed to transport heavy crude oil from the Lokichar basin to a marine export terminal at the Port of Lamu. It details the stakeholder engagement process, the construction methodology involving trenching and backfilling, and key technical parameters such as a length of approximately 820 km and the inclusion of 16 intermediary stations.

The author describes a series of visits to mining and development sites in South Africa and Kenya, highlighting environmental destruction and human rights violations. The text criticizes the South African government's support for the mining industry and the New Development Bank's funding of coal-fired power plants, while warning against the dangers of geoengineering funded by carbon emitters.

The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.

The report evaluates Kenya's development landscape, noting strengths in health and education but significant deficits in basic infrastructure and governance. It uses the International Futures (IFs) model to project outcomes through 2040, arguing that while Kenya is unlikely to reach upper-middle-income status by 2030, targeted interventions in agriculture, family planning, and corruption could meaningfully improve livelihoods.

The document critiques the ESIA for the 250km Lamu-Garissa road, highlighting risks to the critically endangered Hirola antelope and the Tana River ecosystem. It argues that the preferred route (Alternative I-1) lacks species-specific wildlife crossing data and fails to allocate budget for wildlife protection in its management plan. Additionally, the authors identify failures in stormwater management planning, a lack of impact analysis for the extraction of approximately 1.375 million cubic meters of construction materials, and procedural violations of Kenyan law regarding public participation and gazette notices.

The document argues that African countries must integrate an ecosystem-based approach into economic planning to protect natural assets from pressures like population growth and extractive industries. It advocates for the use of ecological accounting and natural asset pricing to quantify the economic value of ecosystems, which often exceeds the value of their conversion for mining or farming. The brief recommends a multi-level governance system—combining national interdisciplinary coordination with local community co-management—and the adoption of innovative financing like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and Blue Carbon frameworks. It emphasizes the need for rigorous environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and scientific spatial mapping to guide conservation priorities and regulate development in sensitive areas.

The document examines how climate change threatens Kenya's trade sector, particularly agriculture and tourism, through infrastructure damage and supply chain disruptions. It discusses the potential for 'green protectionism' via carbon labeling and border carbon adjustments, while suggesting that Kenya could gain a competitive advantage by branding its low-carbon niche products.

The report argues that maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia imposes significant economic costs on Kenya, including shipping surcharges and losses in tourism, while also facilitating money laundering within the country. It assesses previous counter-piracy efforts, noting that while Kenya has attempted to prosecute pirates, these efforts were hampered by jurisdictional conflicts and archaic evidentiary laws. The author recommends a multi-pronged strategy that combines sea-based naval patrols with land-based efforts to rebuild the Somali state and disrupt the financial networks of pirate bosses operating within Kenya.

The document outlines a three-part process for managing biocultural community protocols: intrinsic analysis of community changes, extrinsic analysis of interactions with external actors, and the subsequent evaluation and revision of the protocol itself. It emphasizes participatory methods, such as the 'Most Significant Change' technique, to capture qualitative impacts on community wellbeing and gender roles. The guide also stresses the importance of keeping both internal community members and external stakeholders informed through diverse communication tools to maintain transparency and trust.