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The document examines the transition of South Africa to a coalition-based national government following the May 2024 elections, where the ANC lost its majority. It argues that for the GNU to be effective, partners must prioritize accountability and service delivery over the retention of power. By analyzing the instability of local coalitions in South Africa and comparing them with experiences in Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, and Western Europe, the brief advocates for the adoption of formal, written coalition agreements to manage ideological tensions and improve governmental stability.

The document analyzes the synergy between NAPs and NDCs, finding that while most countries show partial alignment, the 2025 NDC update offers a strategic opportunity to better integrate adaptation priorities, improve data quality, and attract international finance.

The report outlines a five-step framework for structuring adaptation-focused financial instruments: defining a resilience thesis, building a bankable pipeline, strategically engaging funders, cultivating local collaborations, and measuring impact. It highlights that while adaptation finance lags behind mitigation, private sector opportunities exist if perceived risks are managed through blended finance and simplified structures. Based on 17 adaptation-relevant instruments, the report notes that 12 successfully mobilized capital, totaling USD 1.2 billion, emphasizing the role of technical assistance and concessional capital in de-risking early-stage projects.

The report analyzes the digital information ecosystem during South Africa's May 2024 elections, identifying a complex market of paid and ideological influencers who used coordinated strategies to undermine electoral institutions and distort political narratives.

The document analyzes the synergy between NAPs and NDCs, proposing a continuum of alignment from 'no alignment' to 'full alignment'. It finds that while most countries exhibit partial alignment, the timing of document submission significantly impacts coherence. It urges countries to use the 2025 NDC update to integrate detailed NAP findings, including costs and capacity gaps, to improve adaptation ambition and attract international finance.

The document analyzes the degree of alignment between NAPs and NDCs, categorizing countries into 'no alignment', 'partial alignment', and 'full alignment'. It finds that while 82% of countries with multisectoral NAPs reference the NAP process in their NDCs, most (68%) only achieve partial alignment. The briefing argues that the 2025 NDC update is a critical opportunity to use NAPs as operational vehicles to implement high-level NDC goals, improve the quality of adaptation data, and communicate financial and capacity needs to the international community.

The 2024 Scorecard by Insure Our Future argues that the global insurance industry is in a 'vicious cycle,' where it continues to underwrite fossil fuel expansion while simultaneously withdrawing coverage from communities facing the resulting climate risks. Using climate attribution science, the report estimates that over one-third of weather-related insured losses between 2002 and 2022—approximately $600 billion—are attributable to human-caused climate change. The analysis reveals a stark mismatch in underwriting, with renewable energy premiums representing less than 30% of the size of the fossil fuel insurance market in 2023. For 15 of the 28 major property and casualty insurers analyzed, estimated climate-attributable losses exceeded the premiums they collected from fossil fuel clients. While Generali is noted as the first insurer to restrict oil and gas expansion across the entire value chain, the report concludes that voluntary corporate leadership has stalled, necessitating urgent regulatory intervention to mandate 1.5°C-aligned transition plans and higher capital requirements for fossil fuel exposure.

The report assesses the deployment of Feed-in Tariff (FIT) and Renewable Energy Auction (REA) policies in Kenya, identifying significant gaps in stakeholder awareness, communication, and financial de-risking. While Kenya has strong technical capacity and a high renewable energy grid mix, the transition from FIT to REA has been hampered by bureaucratic processes and a lack of inclusive policy formulation. The authors recommend establishing a centralized body for REA bidding, enhancing stakeholder engagement with research institutions, and implementing robust financial incentives like tax credits and guarantees to attract private investment and achieve 100% renewable electricity by 2030.

The report details a scenario exercise conducted by the Council on Strategic Risks to explore how biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) can trigger security crises. Using a hypothetical 2034 'Cichlid Collapse' as a starting point, the study identifies social resilience and economic stability as the primary drivers of future security outcomes. It presents four potential futures ranging from a virtuous cycle of cooperation to a 'death spiral' of widespread conflict and ecological collapse. The report argues that biodiversity loss exacerbates resource competition, governance fragility, and the influence of violent extremist organizations, recommending a 'whole of system' approach integrating defense, diplomacy, and development to mitigate these risks.

The paper argues that green technologies in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, waste management, and green construction can significantly reduce youth unemployment in Africa. It highlights specific successes, such as Morocco's Noor Solar Complex and South Africa's REIPPPP, while noting that widespread adoption is blocked by financing gaps, currency volatility, and policy-implementation disconnects. The authors recommend targeted vocational training, blended finance models, and strengthened public-private partnerships to unlock these opportunities.

The document argues that green bonds are an under-utilised tool that could help Africa meet its estimated USD 2.8 trillion climate finance need by 2030. While the global green bond market reached approximately USD 2.8 trillion in 2023, Africa's share is less than 1%, representing only USD 5.1 billion. The paper highlights successful issuances in South Africa, Nigeria, and Zambia, while identifying key barriers such as low liquidity, inadequate regulation, and high transaction costs. It calls for stronger public-private collaboration and international support at COP29 to create enabling environments for green bond proliferation in Africa.

The report details the disclosure of an Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), and an Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS) for the Ampyr - Dhule subproject in Maharashtra, India. It confirms that these documents were made available in English and Marathi to satisfy GCF requirements for Category B sub-projects, ensuring disclosure at least 30 days before an investment decision. The report also notes that the project adheres to an IFC-compliant ESMS and lists specific dates for stakeholder engagement and public disclosure in Mhasale Village.

The document outlines the structure of climate negotiations at COP29, listing various negotiating blocs such as the G77+China, EU, and AOSIS, while providing a glossary of terms and a calendar of thematic focus areas.

Kenya faces significant cooling gaps, with millions of people in hot regions at risk due to poverty and lack of electricity. While the country has a high share of renewable energy, the growth of refrigeration and air-conditioning (RAC) threatens to increase emissions, necessitating a transition to sustainable cooling to align with Net Zero 2050 goals.

The research examines the viability of private sector-led mini-grids in Kenya, highlighting how political interference and regulatory uncertainty affect value co-creation. It concludes that a business model's success depends on its ability to maintain core frugal innovation principles—reliability, affordability, simplicity, and adaptability—while navigating external pressures.

The ninth FOCAC Beijing Summit signaled a recalibration of China-Africa relations, moving toward a partnership defined by African agency and a focus on quality outcomes over quantity. Despite a period of declining lending since 2016, China committed USD 50.7 billion over three years, focusing on agricultural market access, mineral processing, and infrastructure. The summit highlighted Africa's desire for value addition and industrialization, as well as China's assertive push to promote its governance model and Global South leadership through the Global Development, Security, and Civilization Initiatives. This shift poses a competitive challenge to the EU and US, as African nations increasingly prioritize partnerships that offer tangible utility and respect for sovereignty.

The brief evaluates 62 of 95 water investments established between 2013 and 2018 in Kenya's ASAL regions, finding that functionality generally declined between 2019 and 2023 due to poor maintenance funding, governance gaps, and insufficient climate data. It recommends integrating indigenous knowledge, securing dedicated operations and maintenance budgets, and adopting landscape-level management to ensure long-term resilience.

The report argues that a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can catalyze the financing necessary for a global just transition by establishing new funding regimes, creating state obligations, and supporting parallel financial reforms. It categorizes potential solutions into three clusters: debt management, new forms of finance and investment, and the replacement of fossil fuel revenues. The authors emphasize that wealthy nations must assume historical responsibility by ending extraction first and providing financial support to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to diversify their economies.

The GCF Water Project Design Guidelines Part 3 outlines a framework for creating climate-resilient sanitation (CRS) projects. It defines CRS as systems that can survive and function despite climate shocks while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. The guide provides a detailed methodology for conducting climate risk assessments (analyzing hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) and identifies specific technical and management interventions for the sanitation service chain, including containment, conveyance, and treatment. It emphasizes a 'paradigm shift' toward circular economy principles—such as nutrient recovery and wastewater reuse—and provides a step-by-step process for aligning proposals with GCF investment criteria, including impact potential and country ownership.

The report details the creation of a management tool designed to help agribusinesses align their operations with international responsible investment standards, specifically the CFS-RAI Principles and IFC Performance Standards. Through pilot testing with five companies in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Senegal, the report identifies that RAI compliance is heavily influenced by a company's mission, the formality of its management systems, and external business conditions. While the tool was well-received for its 'language of business' approach, the report notes that resource constraints in smaller SMEs may hinder independent adoption, suggesting a need for support from investors and technical assistance providers.