IF IT’S NOT GLOBAL, IT’S NOT JUST: HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN ACCELERATE FINANCE FOR A GLOBAL JUST TRANSITION

The report argues that a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty can catalyze the financing necessary for a global just transition by establishing new funding regimes, creating state obligations, and supporting parallel financial reforms. It categorizes potential solutions into three clusters: debt management, new forms of finance and investment, and the replacement of fossil fuel revenues. The authors emphasize that wealthy nations must assume historical responsibility by ending extraction first and providing financial support to low and middle-income countries (LMICs) to diversify their economies.

• The report identifies three primary pillars of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty: ending the expansion of fossil fuel production, implementing an equitable phase-out of existing production aligned with 1.5°C, and ensuring a global just transition.
• Low and Middle Income countries (LMICs) face a 'climate-debt trap' where they spend five times more on debt repayments to external creditors than on climate mitigation and adaptation, hindering their ability to transition.
• The document proposes a 'Buyers-Sellers' Club' as a mechanism to incentivize treaty participation, where consumer countries accelerate the phase-down of consumption and refund proceeds to producer members who also accelerate production phase-downs.
• Redirecting fossil fuel subsidies could potentially unlock at least $1.25 trillion for the just transition, though the report notes that in the Global South, renewable energy currently receives 40 times less public subsidy than the fossil fuel sector.
• The report suggests several progressive taxation measures to raise transition funds, including a 2% wealth tax on the world's 3,000 billionaires (estimated to raise $250 billion annually) and a global windfall profits levy on fossil fuel companies.
• To address the high cost of capital for LMICs, the report discusses the use of Partial Foreign Exchange (FX) Guarantees to reduce hedging costs and risk premia, potentially providing $100 billion a year in guarantees from MDBs and the IMF.
• The report advocates for the creation of a Global Just Transition Fund to provide LMIC producer countries with project finance and technical assistance for social dialogue, potentially modeled after the EU's Just Transition Fund.
• The authors highlight the need for 'Climate Prosperity Plans' (already published by Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Ghana, and Barbados) to map out economic diversification and attract catalytic investments.
• The report suggests that a treaty could facilitate the reform of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) to allow waivers for green technologies, similar to health-related emergency waivers used during the COVID-19 pandemic.

APA

Sawas, D. A., Byrnes, R., & Partridge, M. (2024). IF IT’S NOT GLOBAL, IT’S NOT JUST: HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN ACCELERATE FINANCE FOR A GLOBAL JUST TRANSITION. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/If-Its-Not-Global-Its-Not-Just-How-a-Fossil-Fuel-Non-Proliferation-Treaty-can-Accelerate-Finance-for.pdf

Chicago

Sawas, Dr. Amiera, Rebecca Byrnes, and Mia Partridge. IF IT’S NOT GLOBAL, IT’S NOT JUST: HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN ACCELERATE FINANCE FOR A GLOBAL JUST TRANSITION. Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, 2024. https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/If-Its-Not-Global-Its-Not-Just-How-a-Fossil-Fuel-Non-Proliferation-Treaty-can-Accelerate-Finance-for.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sawas |first1=Dr. Amiera |last2=Byrnes |first2=Rebecca |last3=Partridge |first3=Mia |title=IF IT’S NOT GLOBAL, IT’S NOT JUST: HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN ACCELERATE FINANCE FOR A GLOBAL JUST TRANSITION |publisher=Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative |date=November 2024 |url=https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/If-Its-Not-Global-Its-Not-Just-How-a-Fossil-Fuel-Non-Proliferation-Treaty-can-Accelerate-Finance-for.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sawas2024its, author = {Sawas, Dr. Amiera and Byrnes, Rebecca and Partridge, Mia}, title = {{IF IT’S NOT GLOBAL, IT’S NOT JUST: HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN ACCELERATE FINANCE FOR A GLOBAL JUST TRANSITION}}, institution = {Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/s/If-Its-Not-Global-Its-Not-Just-How-a-Fossil-Fuel-Non-Proliferation-Treaty-can-Accelerate-Finance-for.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }