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Hamas’s Concept of a Long-term Ceasefire: A Viable Alternative to Full Peace?
The research examines Hamas's proposal for a hudna, an extended ceasefire that differs from a final peace deal by allowing the postponement of the refugee right of return. Based on interviews with Hamas leaders in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon, the study finds that while the hudna is tactical—serving as a means to an objective—it is grounded in Islamic and Arab traditions of conflict resolution (hudna followed by sulh, or reconciliation). The author notes that some Hamas members in Gaza are open to pragmatic compromises, such as land swaps, provided Israel withdraws to 1967 borders. However, the proposal faces challenges from salafi-jihadist groups in Lebanon and Gaza, as well as ideological opposition from other Palestinian factions like Islamic Jihad. Ultimately, the document argues that Hamas is serious about the hudna as a partial solution to establish a Palestinian state without requiring the formal recognition of Israel.
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Document type: Research paper
Rocky Mountain Institute Smart Garage Charrette Pre-Read
The document introduces the 'Smart Garage' concept—the convergence of electrified vehicles, smart grids, and building energy systems—and provides a framework for a stakeholder charrette to overcome implementation barriers. RMI's financial modeling suggests that while basic convenience charging (V0G) is costly, integrated scenarios like Vehicle-to-Building (V2B) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) can be profitable, with V2B estimated at a net present value of $34B. The briefing identifies critical technical and business barriers, such as battery costs and lack of standardization, and outlines 'hot topics' for debate, including control of charging and the role of government subsidies.
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Document type: Briefing
‘Keep Calm and Carry On’
The document evaluates the outcomes of the 2010 NPT Review Conference, highlighting the tension between the aspirations of Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS), particularly those in Africa, and the reluctance of Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) to commit to firm disarmament timelines. While it notes achievements such as the agreement to convene a conference on a Middle East nuclear-weapon-free zone in 2012 and the reaffirmation of the right to peaceful nuclear energy, it argues that the final document largely maintains the status quo. The authors emphasize the importance of the Treaty of Pelindaba and the need for a comprehensive Nuclear Weapons Convention to move beyond the NPT's perceived discriminatory structure.
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Document type: Research paper
Der Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – (ab)used by Germany?
The research paper analyzes Germany's engagement with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) up to July 2009, arguing that both the global mechanism and German state policy prioritize the quantity of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) over the quality of sustainable development. The author finds that German projects are heavily concentrated in Asia, particularly China and India, and are dominated by large-scale industrial 'end-of-pipe' projects that offer minimal sustainable development benefits. The document concludes that the German government uses the CDM primarily as a tool for economic and export promotion rather than as a means to achieve genuine climate and development goals, thereby 'abusing' the mechanism's original purpose.
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Document type: Research paper
Concentrated Solar Power
Concentrated solar power (CSP) uses mirrors to focus sunlight to generate electricity, primarily for utility-scale use. While the U.S. led in installed capacity as of 2009 with 429 MW, Spain followed with 182 MW. The technology varies from parabolic troughs and linear Fresnel reflectors to dish/engines and power towers. CSP is noted for its ability to provide power during peak late-afternoon demand and its potential for baseload generation via thermal storage or natural gas hybridization. Economic challenges include high initial construction costs, though operational costs are lower than fossil fuel plants. Policy mechanisms like feed-in tariffs in Spain and Israel, and investment tax credits in the U.S., are identified as key drivers for deployment.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East
The report argues that climate change in the Middle East—predicted to be hotter, drier, and less predictable—threatens to reduce water availability and increase food insecurity, which may lead to violent conflict. It highlights that the region's history of hostility undermines the ability of countries to collaborate on adaptation and shared resources. Potential security risks include increased competition for water, destabilizing forced migration, and the militarization of strategic natural resources. However, the report suggests that promoting conservation, fostering cooperation on shared resources, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions can mitigate these threats to regional peace.
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Document type: Report
THE IMPACT OF CER DISCOUNTING ON THE COMPETITIVENESS OF DIFFERENT CDM HOST COUNTRIES
The paper investigates the potential of CER discounting to address CDM shortcomings, such as non-additionality and the uneven distribution of projects. By analyzing abatement cost curves for China, India, advanced Asian countries, and LDCs, the authors find that while discounting can increase costs for advanced developing countries and potentially incentivize them to adopt their own mitigation commitments, it is insufficient on its own to make LDCs competitive. The study concludes that financial, technical, and institutional barriers in LDCs must be overcome for them to realize their theoretical abatement potential, as the abundance of cheap projects in countries like China continues to dominate the market.
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Document type: Research paper
Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions
The report argues that while climate change is not the sole cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' in the Levant. It identifies six primary security threats, including increased competition for water, intensified food insecurity, and destabilizing forced migration. The authors emphasize that the region's history of conflict and deep distrust undermine its adaptive capacity, making it more vulnerable to environmental shocks. To mitigate these risks, the report proposes four strategies: fostering a culture of conservation, implementing community-level adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and enabling regional cooperation through shared resource management.
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Document type: Report
Seminar Summary Report “Mbeki’s Dramatic Departure from the Union Buildings – What Implications for South Africa”
The document details a seminar on the recall of President Thabo Mbeki by the ANC, arguing that the move was primarily intended to ensure party unity rather than being solely about legal implications. It assesses the stability of South Africa's economic and foreign policies under the subsequent administration of President Motlanthe and examines the constitutionality of the 'recall' process. Additionally, it considers the impact of Mbeki's departure on his role as a mediator in African conflicts.
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Document type: Report
Analyse et gestion du changement climatique et de ses effets sur l’eau : projets de recherche allemands
The document details various German-led research initiatives focused on the intersection of climate change and water. It covers regional climate modeling for Germany, the impact of extreme weather on biogeochemical cycles, global water scarcity, and specific case studies such as the GLOWA projects in the Elbe and Jordan River basins. Additionally, it discusses aquatic ecosystem vulnerabilities through the AQUASHIFT program and proposes a risk-management approach for coastal flood protection in Hamburg.
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Document type: Report
Catching the Middlemen Fuelling African Conflicts
The research paper examines how organised crime networks, particularly those from the former Eastern Bloc, operate with impunity in African conflict zones by using front companies, tax havens, and corrupt political links. It details the activities of Leonid Minin and Victor Bout, who are alleged to have trafficked weapons and minerals in countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone, and the DRC. The author argues that law enforcement is hampered by weak national legislation, poor international coordination, and the lack of criminal sanctions for sanctions-busting, though it suggests that post-9/11 anti-terrorism frameworks may offer new opportunities for disrupting these networks.
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Document type: Research paper
Ten Steps the Next President Should Take to Transform U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy
The report contends that U.S. nuclear policy is outdated and increases the risk of accidental war or proliferation. It proposes ten unilateral actions, including reducing the arsenal to 1,000 warheads, ending rapid-launch options, and ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, to enhance national and international security.
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Document type: Report
historieskrivning-som-politikk-i-israel-palestinakonflikten-87aac8c2ad3becb0.pdf
The author argues that historiography in the Israel-Palestine conflict is inherently political, as both nations fight for a dominant narrative to legitimate their actions and claims. The text contrasts the Zionist narrative of survival and liberation with the Palestinian narrative of neo-colonialism and ethnic cleansing. It specifically examines the 'broadcast theory' used by Israel to deny responsibility for the 1948 refugee crisis, noting that academic consensus now attributes the flight of approximately 750,000 Palestinians to the actions of the Haganah/IDF, Irgun, and Stern Gang. The author also critiques the 'terrorism as the primary obstacle to peace' thesis, arguing it is ahistorical and ignores Israeli violence and the timing of suicide bombings. Finally, the document highlights the paradox where the Holocaust is used for Israeli legitimacy while the Nakba is denied, noting that the Israeli state bears responsibility for the latter.
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Document type: Research paper
The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility
The study examines how public opinion influences conflict dynamics between democratic and non-democratic actors. Using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1996–2005), the authors compare four models: bystander, follower, accountability, and credibility. They find that the credibility model, which allows for simultaneous interactions between public opinion and government behavior, fits the data best. The results suggest asymmetric reciprocity, where the democratic actor (Israel) reciprocates cooperation and conflict, while the non-democratic actor (Palestinians) often reacts with hostility to cooperative gestures. Including public opinion data significantly improved the accuracy of conflict forecasts for 2005.
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Document type: Research paper
A Democratic Peace Revisited
This research paper investigates the impact of democracy measurement on the 'democratic peace' proposition, which posits that democracies rarely go to war with one another. The author compares the widely used Polity dataset with Vanhanen's Polyarchy dataset, which uses a simpler index based on electoral competition and participation. Through bivariate and multivariate analyses of conflict data from 1816 to 2002, the study finds that the choice of indicator does matter; specifically, electoral competition appears to be a stronger predictor of peace than the aggregated democracy scores. The author concludes that while different measures often correlate, they are not interchangeable and can lead to different inferences about the causes of international peace.
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Document type: Research paper
Mapping the Terrain The Role of Religion in Peacemaking
The document examines religion as a multifaceted phenomenon—comprising normative systems, identities, and organisational structures—and evaluates its dual potential to both fuel and resolve armed conflict. It argues that while religion is rarely the sole cause of war, it often perpetuates conflict by hardening identity boundaries. The authors propose a typology of peace brokerage (Liaison, Representative, and Coordinator) and emphasize that successful peacemaking requires 'religious awareness,' including the use of a 'Language of the Second Order' to transcend confessional boundaries. The paper concludes that religious actors are particularly suited for Track-Two diplomacy due to their grassroots and international networks, but warns that excluding religiously identified parties from formal processes can create 'spoiler groups.'
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Document type: Research paper
Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits
The report argues that while fuel cells have high initial capital costs, they can be cost-effective by capturing 'distributed benefits' such as deferring utility distribution investments, providing premium reliability for the digital economy, and meeting strict urban emission standards. It proposes a commercialization path starting with grid-connected systems in commercial buildings and semiconductor fabs, eventually integrating with fuel-cell vehicles through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems.
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Document type: Report
reconsidering the rules of space project
The document examines the physical constraints of space operations, arguing that while space is uniquely suited for civilian and reconnaissance missions, it is poorly suited for kinetic ground-attack and boost-phase missile defense due to high costs, reliability issues, and intrinsic vulnerabilities. It details the mechanics of various orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO, Molniya, Tundra), the propellant requirements for maneuvering, and the technical methods for interfering with satellites, including jamming, dazzling, and kinetic energy attacks. The authors conclude that being the first to deploy space-based weapons would not confer a lasting military advantage because space lacks strategic locations and satellites remain inherently vulnerable.
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Document type: Guide
IP QUARTERLY UPDATE: SECOND QUARTER 2004
The document analyzes the intersection of intellectual property and development, highlighting the risks of fragmented negotiations across different international bodies. It focuses on three critical issues for the September 2004 WIPO General Assembly: the interrelation between the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and IP disclosure requirements, the proposed treaty on the protection of broadcasting organizations, and the future of the Substantive Patent Law Treaty (SPLT). Additionally, it tracks IP-related activities in the WTO, WHO, UNCTAD, and various bilateral 'TRIPS-plus' trade agreements, arguing that developed countries often use bilateral fora to circumvent multilateral flexibilities.
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Document type: Report
Unscrambling a space career from military forces
The document argues that space technology is deeply intertwined with military agendas, often masking military goals as civilian or scientific. It highlights the militarisation of NASA, the high costs and instability of missile defence systems, and the risks of nuclear power in space, providing a framework for professionals to evaluate the ethics of their employment in the sector.
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Document type: Briefing