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When is a coup not a coup? The AU's dilemma
The African Union (AU) faces a dilemma in Niger, where a military 'counter-coup' has overthrown President Tandja, who had previously used unconstitutional means to bypass term limits. While the AU has broadened its definition of 'unconstitutional change of government' to include incumbent leaders manipulating constitutions, it must now decide how to respond to a textbook military coup. The author argues that the AU must condemn the coup to avoid political instability, despite the potential for the military to restore constitutional rule. The situation is complicated by Niger's mineral wealth—specifically uranium, gold, and oil—and the strategic interests of foreign powers like France, which relies on Niger for uranium imports for its nuclear energy sector.
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Document type: Research paper
How Can Information for Adaptation Decision Making be Collected and Disseminated?
The document argues that information for adaptation is not a readily available resource to be collected but must be generated through a structured process of monitoring, target setting, and progress assessment. It proposes a conceptual model that links a 'CC/CV Observatory' (data collection) to an 'Information System' (processing) and finally to decision-makers at policy and operational levels. For Africa, the author emphasizes the need for long-term time series data, which is often lacking, and suggests involving the private sector and local populations (e.g., farmers using SMS) to sustain monitoring networks. The paper highlights the OMVS Environmental Observatory in Senegal as a successful participatory model for data collection. Regarding dissemination, it suggests tailored strategies: for mitigation, targeting industry and the informal sector (such as motorcycle users and cooling technicians); for adaptation, using National Action Plans for Adaptation (NAPA) to identify vulnerable groups and employing FAO's 'Information for Action' approach to deliver actionable, language-appropriate guidance.
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Document type: Research paper
The Power of Regional Economic Communities: predicting future trends and mitigating the phenomenon of unconstitutional power alteration in Africa
The document analyzes three generations of unconstitutional power shifts in Africa, from post-independence coups to modern manipulations of term limits and 'models' of military intervention. It argues that while Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and SADC have the potential to mitigate these trends through sanctions and democratic protocols, their effectiveness is hindered by state sovereignty, inconsistent implementation of laws, and the influence of powerful regional leaders who support usurpers. The authors recommend that RECs focus on root causes—such as socioeconomic stagnation and weak institutions—and encourage the ratification of the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.
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Document type: Report
Madagascar: Anatomy of a Recurrent Crisis
The document examines the 2009 transition of power from President Marc Ravalomanana to Andry Rajoelina, framing it as part of a historical pattern of popular uprisings and governance failures in Madagascar. It details the catalysts of the crisis, including accusations of bad governance and the role of the 'urban mob' in Antananarivo, while assessing the international community's response and mediation efforts led by Joachim Chissano. The author argues that sustainable stability requires addressing root causes such as extreme poverty and the lack of credible electoral mechanisms.
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Document type: Briefing
Whither Human Rights in African International Relations?
The document assesses the role of human rights in African international relations, arguing that while the continent has established significant monitoring bodies and ratified treaties, human rights often remain a "variable concern" subordinated to national interests and geopolitical strategies. It highlights the influence of "African solutions to African problems" in conflict resolution and the impact of China's non-interference policy as an alternative to Western conditionality. The author concludes that for human rights to be central to foreign policy, African states must develop a unified continental approach that harmonizes trade, security, and justice while adhering to agreed-upon democratic standards.
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Document type: Research paper
Quid des droits humains dans les relations internationales africaines ?
The document examines how human rights are integrated into African international relations, noting a gap between formal commitments to regional and international treaties and the practical application of these norms. It highlights how national interests, historical colonial ties, and the emergence of non-conditional economic partnerships—particularly with China—often supersede human rights considerations. The author analyzes specific cases, such as the African Union's response to the ICC warrant for Omar Al-Bashir and South Africa's diplomatic balancing act, to argue that human rights often remain a "variable concern" rather than a central pillar of foreign policy.
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Document type: Research paper
US-Africa Relations: The Modest Foundations of Obama’s Four-Pillar Platform
The author analyzes President Obama's 2009 speech in Ghana, noting a transition from viewing Africa instrumentally through the 'war on terror' to seeing its development as intrinsic to global security. The new policy rests on four pillars: democracy and good governance, smart development assistance, public health, and conflict reduction. However, the author argues that the US's influence has diminished due to the Iraq war and the domestic financial crisis, allowing China, the EU, Russia, India, and Brazil to offer more programmatic or comprehensive partnerships. The document suggests that African nations, such as Ghana, can benefit from this competition by diversifying their partnerships across different global powers to meet specific national needs.
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Document type: Research paper
Madagascar: What Now?
The briefing argues that Andry Rajoelina's ascent to power in Madagascar in March 2009 was an "unconstitutional change of government" because it bypassed electoral processes and violated constitutional age requirements and succession rules. It notes that the military's role in declaring Rajoelina president overrode President Marc Ravalomanana's suggestion of a military directorate. The document suggests that Rajoelina may have been inspired by Ravalomanana's own 2002 seizure of power. It attributes the failure of mediation to a lack of coordination among numerous international and local actors, including the AU, SADC, and IOC, and warns that the political instability has adversely affected Madagascar's tourism sector.
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Document type: Briefing
Africa 2009: Some Preliminary Observations
The briefing examines how the global banking crisis and falling commodity prices threaten African budgets and social expenditure, while analyzing ongoing political instability in countries like the DRC, Sudan, and Somalia, and the prospects for democratic consolidation across the continent.
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Document type: Briefing
les mythes au sujet du REDD
The report argues that REDD, as currently designed, focuses on reducing rather than stopping deforestation and risks becoming a tool for corporate profit rather than climate mitigation. It highlights significant risks to indigenous land rights, the potential for 'leakage' where deforestation simply moves to other areas, and the danger of replacing natural forests with monoculture plantations. The author criticizes the use of carbon markets to fund REDD, suggesting instead public funding derived from fossil fuel taxes and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies.
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Document type: Report
Democracy, elections & political parties
The paper examines the relationship between elections and democracy, arguing that while elections are primary prerequisites for democracy, they are often used in Africa as 'window-dressing rituals' to legitimate existing regimes. It analyzes various electoral systems, the critical role of independent electoral commissions, judiciaries, and militaries, and the functions of international and domestic observation. Additionally, it explores the nature of African political parties, noting their tendency to be ethnically based, personalized, and non-institutionalized.
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Document type: Research paper
Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda
The research paper warns that Côte d'Ivoire remains in a state of 'permanent crisis' characterized by a military stalemate between President Laurent Gbagbo's government and the Forces Nouvelles (FN) rebels. Despite peace agreements and the mediation of South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, the author argues that mutual mistrust, the use of ethnic militias, and breaches of UN arms embargos create a dangerous environment. The text highlights the role of 'Ivorianness' laws and xenophobia in polarising the population along north-south lines, drawing parallels to the build-up of the Rwandan genocide, particularly regarding the targeting of civilians and the use of ethnic propaganda.
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Document type: Research paper
China’s preferential trade policy for Africa
The briefing examines China's policy of offering duty-free treatment to 440 products from 30 African LDCs. While the scheme is tailored to existing export capacities, the author argues its economic impact is modest compared to its symbolic diplomatic value in signaling China's rise as a great power and alternative to Western donors.
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Document type: Briefing
Compensatory Finance Options for tackling the commodity price problem
The document examines the history and failure of compensatory finance schemes designed to smooth revenue flows for commodity-dependent developing countries. It analyzes the IMF's CFF and the EU's STABEX, concluding that both were undermined by donor conditionality and a tendency to operate pro-cyclically. While UNCTAD continues to propose innovative, automatic, and self-financing models, the author argues that these tools have fallen out of political fashion, replaced by direct budget support and market-based intelligence.
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Document type: Report
List of Countries that have Signed, Ratified/Acceded to the AU Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism as at 23 June 2006
The document lists the signature, ratification, and deposit dates for 53 African entities regarding the AU Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism. As of 23 June 2006, 48 countries had signed the convention, while 36 had completed ratification or accession and deposited their instruments.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The Crisis in Côte d’Ivoire
The document analyzes the roots of the conflict in Côte d’Ivoire, tracing it from the death of President Felix Houphoüet-Boigny in 1993 to the 2002 rebel seizure of the north. It highlights the role of 'Ivoirité' in disenfranchising northerners and the failure of peace accords like Marcoussis and Accra II and III. The author argues that because all major political actors—including Laurent Gbagbo, Henri Konan Bédié, Alassane Ouattara, and Guillaume Soro—have acted in bad faith, they should be barred from politics in favor of an interim government and neutral election supervision.
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Document type: Research paper
Vulnerability Profile of West Africa
The report analyzes the environmental vulnerability of West Africa, focusing on the interplay between poverty, environmental degradation, and natural hazards. It identifies key sensitivities in health, water availability, and food security, while detailing the diverse farming systems and urban livelihoods that shape resilience. The document emphasizes that vulnerability is exacerbated by social inequities, political conflict, and population growth, and argues for integrated poverty reduction strategies that prioritize diversification and adaptive capacity to mitigate the impacts of climate change and resource scarcity.
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Document type: Report
Global Monitoring Report 2005
The report finds that global progress toward the human development MDGs is inadequate, with Sub-Saharan Africa off track for every goal. It identifies critical bottlenecks in the supply of skilled health and education workers and a disconnect between the need for recurrent personnel funding and the technical assistance provided by donors. The document advocates for pragmatic human resource strategies, such as using paraprofessionals and contract teachers, and calls for a shift toward predictable, budget-aligned donor support and improved public sector accountability to ensure services reach the poorest populations.
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Document type: Report
Timbuktu’s Golden Legacy
The report examines the experiences of South African companies operating in Mali, noting that while the country is a democratic success story with strong economic growth, significant practical barriers exist. South African investment is heavily concentrated in gold mining and energy, contributing substantially to Mali's GDP and state revenue. However, investors face challenges including a complex tax system, weak judicial infrastructure, poor transport logistics due to Mali's landlocked position, and a lack of skilled labour. The document recommends structural reforms in taxation, labour law, and infrastructure to attract more diversified foreign investment.
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Document type: Report
Héritage d’or de Tombouctou
The report examines the impact and challenges of South African investment in Mali, noting that while the country offers political stability and significant gold mining opportunities, investors face severe bureaucratic, legal, and infrastructural hurdles. South African firms, particularly in gold mining, have significantly boosted Mali's GDP and state revenues, but struggle with a complex tax system, an inefficient judiciary, and a lack of skilled local labor. The document highlights the case of the Syama gold mine to illustrate the environmental and social risks of mine closures. It recommends that the Malian government modernize its tax and labor laws and that the South African government provide better diplomatic and commercial support for its firms in the region.
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Document type: Report