Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda

The research paper warns that Côte d'Ivoire remains in a state of 'permanent crisis' characterized by a military stalemate between President Laurent Gbagbo's government and the Forces Nouvelles (FN) rebels. Despite peace agreements and the mediation of South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki, the author argues that mutual mistrust, the use of ethnic militias, and breaches of UN arms embargos create a dangerous environment. The text highlights the role of 'Ivorianness' laws and xenophobia in polarising the population along north-south lines, drawing parallels to the build-up of the Rwandan genocide, particularly regarding the targeting of civilians and the use of ethnic propaganda.

• The conflict is driven by long-term polarisations over national identity and economic control, exacerbated by 'Ivorianness' laws that disenfranchised millions in the north and barred opposition leader Alassane Ouattara from the presidency due to his Burkinabe descent.
• Both the government and rebel forces are accused of undermining the peace process through arms embargo breaches and the maintenance of military power; the government has used pro-Gbagbo militias and Liberian mercenaries, while rebels have delayed disarmament and extorted civilians.
• There is a significant risk of a 'deadly kind of war' targeting unarmed civilians, with the author noting parallels between the current atmosphere of paranoia and the events preceding the Rwandan genocide.
• The political deadlock is intensified by a dispute over the presidential mandate; President Gbagbo claims he remains head of state after his mandate expires until elections are held, while the opposition and rebels insist he must step down at the end of October.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2008). Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda. https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda. 2008. https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda |date=25 April 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2008cte, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }