Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs warns that Côte d'Ivoire is at risk of a genocide similar to Rwanda's due to deep-seated insecurities over national identity, economic control, and a political deadlock between President Laurent Gbagbo and rebel forces.

• The conflict in Côte d'Ivoire is driven by long-term polarisations over national identity and economic control, specifically regarding 'Ivorianness' laws that disenfranchised millions in the north and barred Alassane Ouattara from the presidency due to his Burkinabe descent.
• A military and political stalemate exists where President Laurent Gbagbo's ruling Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) lacks broad support beyond 20% of the population in his western region, while rebel forces (Forces Nouvelles) control 60% of the country and are reluctant to disarm to maintain their power and wealth.
• There are significant concerns regarding the feasibility of free and fair elections scheduled for 30 October, as disarmament is set for only three weeks prior. A dispute exists over whether Gbagbo must step down when his mandate expires at the end of October or remain head of state until elections occur.
• Both sides are accused of breaching UN arms embargos. The government has been linked to unloading military jeeps at the port of Abidjan and hiring Liberian mercenaries, while rebels are accused of smuggling commodity exports through Burkina Faso to resupply their army.
• The author warns of a potential genocide mirroring Rwanda, noting that Gbagbo may increasingly rely on violent youth militias, such as the Young Patriots, to target unarmed civilians through ethnic propaganda if the peace process stalls.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2008). Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda. https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda. 2008. https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda |date=25 April 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2008cte, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Côte d'Ivoire: Warning Signs of Another Rwanda}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/cote-divoire-warning-signs-of-another-rwanda/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }