Madagascar: What Now?

This briefing analyzes the unconstitutional change of government in Madagascar in March 2009, where Andry Rajoelina took power following the resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana. The document examines the legal basis for this transition, the failure of international mediation efforts, and the precedent set by Ravalomanana's own rise to power in 2002.

• The transition of power to Andry Rajoelina in March 2009 is characterized as an "unconstitutional change of government" because it bypassed electoral processes and violated the August 1992 Constitution. Specifically, Article 45 requires the President to be elected by universal direct suffrage, and Rajoelina was ineligible under Article 46(1) as he was 34 years old, below the minimum age requirement of 40.
• President Marc Ravalomanana's proposal to hand power to a military directorate upon his resignation on 17 March 2009 was also unconstitutional. According to Article 52(1) of the Constitution, the President of the Senate should temporarily exercise presidential duties if the Head of State resigns or becomes incapacitated.
• The 2009 events may have been influenced by Marc Ravalomanana's own ascent to power in January 2002. Following a disputed election against Didier Ratsiraka in December 2001, Ravalomanana was unilaterally declared President by supporters. Although the African Union (AU) initially viewed this as unconstitutional, it eventually accepted his government after legislative elections were held in December 2002.
• Mediation efforts to resolve the crisis between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina failed due to a lack of coordination among numerous international and local actors. Mediators included the AU, SADC, IOC, the Organisation of Francophone Countries (OIF), the Madagascan Christian Council of Churches (FFKM), and countries such as France and Senegal. The AU Peace and Security Council only attempted a united position on 16 March, which was too late to prevent the military seizure of the central presidential palace and the Reserve Bank.
• The political instability has negatively impacted Madagascar's tourism sector, which serves as the nation's primary source of income.

APA

Maunganidze, O. A. (2009). Madagascar: What Now? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now

Chicago

Maunganidze, Ottilia A. Madagascar: What Now? Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maunganidze |first1=Ottilia A |title=Madagascar: What Now? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=19 March 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maunganidze2009madagascar, author = {Maunganidze, Ottilia A}, title = {{Madagascar: What Now?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }