Madagascar: What Now?

The briefing argues that Andry Rajoelina's ascent to power in Madagascar in March 2009 was an "unconstitutional change of government" because it bypassed electoral processes and violated constitutional age requirements and succession rules. It notes that the military's role in declaring Rajoelina president overrode President Marc Ravalomanana's suggestion of a military directorate. The document suggests that Rajoelina may have been inspired by Ravalomanana's own 2002 seizure of power. It attributes the failure of mediation to a lack of coordination among numerous international and local actors, including the AU, SADC, and IOC, and warns that the political instability has adversely affected Madagascar's tourism sector.

• Andry Rajoelina's assumption of power is classified as an "unconstitutional change of government" because it did not occur through an electoral process and Rajoelina did not meet the constitutional minimum age of 40 for presidential candidates.
• President Marc Ravalomanana's proposal to hand power to a military directorate was itself unconstitutional, as Article 52(1) of the Constitution mandates that the President of the Senate temporarily exercise duties upon a president's resignation.
• The document suggests a precedent for unconstitutional power grabs in Madagascar, noting that Marc Ravalomanana himself forced his way into power in January 2002 following a dispute over election results.
• Mediation efforts by the AU, SADC, IOC, and other entities failed primarily due to a lack of coordination and the absence of a lead organization to harmonize proposals.
• The political instability and the unconstitutional transition of power have negatively impacted the tourism sector, which serves as the primary source of income for Madagascar.

APA

Maunganidze, O. A. (2009). Madagascar: What Now? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now

Chicago

Maunganidze, Ottilia A. Madagascar: What Now? Institute for Security Studies, 2009. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Maunganidze |first1=Ottilia A |title=Madagascar: What Now? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=19 March 2009 |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maunganidze2009madagascar, author = {Maunganidze, Ottilia A}, title = {{Madagascar: What Now?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2009}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/madagascar-what-now}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }