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The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The report examines African election trends in 2016, noting that while multi-party elections are now standard, many processes are undermined by 'constitutional coups', the removal of term limits, and electoral irregularities. It details specific cases of instability and incumbent persistence in countries like the Central African Republic, Uganda, and the Republic of Congo, while contrasting these with more stable prospects in South Africa and Ghana.

The report finds that the CIF provides a unique, programmatic approach to climate finance that differs from the project-by-project model of the GCF. It has been the largest source of external concessional finance for Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), particularly in high-risk technologies like geothermal and concentrated solar power. The authors recommend keeping the CIF operational to maintain momentum and bridge investment gaps, suggesting it work complementarily with the GCF.

The document analyzes the 2012 and 2013 riots in Mtwara, Tanzania, arguing that violent mobilization was fueled by 'dashed expectations' and perceptions of unfair treatment by the government. While the Mtwara and Lindi regions have been objectively marginalized since independence, the study finds that the feeling of being 'robbed' and the decision to pipe gas to Dar es Salaam were primary drivers of unrest. The authors suggest that providing basic public goods and realistic information via local radio can mitigate conflict risks in other emerging petro-states in Africa.

The paper pilots the use of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to understand why some research projects achieve policy uptake while others do not. Analyzing 20 completed projects, the study identifies three causal pathways to success, with research credibility emerging as a necessary 'gatekeeper' condition. The authors conclude that while QCA is a resource-intensive method that reduces causal complexity, it is a valuable tool for challenging and refining a Theory of Change in complex international development settings.

The paper estimates that Chinese financiers provided US$86.3 billion to African governments and state-owned enterprises between 2000 and 2014, a figure lower than many common beliefs. The authors argue that Chinese lending is driven by business interests—specifically generating construction contracts for Chinese firms—rather than a primary desire to secure natural resources. While transportation and energy are the largest sectors receiving funds, approximately one-third of the loans are secured by commodities or exports to mitigate risk in unstable environments. The authors warn that while a debt crisis has not yet occurred, rising debt levels and the unlikely nature of policy bank debt cancellation pose future risks.

The document examines the complexities of land tenure in Africa, highlighting the tension between customary and statutory systems. It argues that while formal titling is a long-term goal, the immediate priority should be adapting informal systems to provide legal security, improving state administrative capacity, and addressing gender-based barriers to land ownership to foster economic development and reduce conflict.

This research paper analyzes the state of constitutionalism and civil liberties across Africa by examining African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) Country Review Reports for 12 countries. It categorizes these nations based on Freedom House rankings and identifies systemic challenges to freedom, including executive dominance and securitization.

The report examines 'constitutional liberalism' in Africa, focusing on the gap between formal democratic structures and the actual protection of civil liberties. Using APRM data and Freedom House rankings, it categorizes countries as 'free', 'partly free', or 'not free', identifying executive dominance, securitisation, and administrative dysfunction as primary barriers to freedom.

The document argues that while sub-Saharan Africa's financial sector has grown rapidly, limited access to formal financial services persists. It identifies a lack of purposeful leadership at middle and senior management levels as a constraint to financial sector development. To address this, Financial Sector Deepening Africa and Creative Metier have implemented a project since 2013 to build internal capacity through executive coaching, which serves as a critical tool for leaders to resolve complex business challenges and improve business performance.

The document outlines a methodology for FSD programmes to move beyond traditional project-level monitoring toward an Impact-Oriented Measurement (IOM) system. It emphasizes the need to bridge the evidence gap between direct project outputs and long-term market changes by tracking intermediate progress indicators, systemic changes (such as adoption, scaling, and replication), and top-down sector trends. The guide advocates for a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data from sources like FinScope with qualitative narrative reporting to capture complex market dynamics and resilience.

The guide outlines a framework for negotiating farmland and water investment contracts, emphasizing the primacy of domestic law over contracts and international treaties. It provides a comprehensive preparation checklist and a model contract containing clauses on land rights, environmental and social impact assessments, financial obligations, and community development agreements. The document warns against 'stabilization clauses' and advocates for transparency and rigorous investor screening to mitigate the high failure rate of large-scale agricultural projects.

The document examines the complex hybrid of customary and statutory landholding systems across Africa, utilizing data from the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM). It highlights that while weak property rights hinder economic growth and agricultural productivity, the administrative costs and institutional limitations of full formal titling make it an impractical immediate solution. Instead, the author proposes a gradual approach: strengthening informal tenure security, improving state administrative capacity through computerization, and investing in rural infrastructure to boost land value and productivity.

The report examines the South African utility-scale renewable energy market, primarily driven by the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It details the growth of wind and solar PV, the impact of local content requirements, and the role of the Western Cape as a greentech hub. It also identifies expansion opportunities within the SADC region and other African nations, while noting infrastructure constraints at Eskom.

The document reviews Ghana's climate risk profile, noting that while it is less vulnerable than some West African neighbors, the northern regions face high risks due to poverty and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. It evaluates national policies like the National Climate Change Policy (2014) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (2010–2020), finding that while these provide a framework, sectoral policies—particularly in agriculture and health—often lack concrete adaptation actions. The review identifies a strong concentration of adaptation projects in the agricultural sector, primarily in northern Ghana, and notes that while Ghana is a significant recipient of bilateral adaptation funds in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a gap in funding for the water, fisheries, and health sectors.

Senegal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture and fisheries, and a population concentrated along a coastline exposed to sea level rise. While the government has established coordinating bodies like the National Climate Change Committee and identified priority sectors in its NAPA and INDC, the report finds that climate adaptation is not yet effectively mainstreamed into most national sectoral policies or subnational planning. Current adaptation projects primarily target agriculture, water resources, and disaster risk management, often using ecosystem-based approaches, but gaps remain in the health and tourism sectors.

The CRiSTAL Parks User's Manual describes a desktop application that enables conservation managers to identify and prioritize climate risks to Protected Areas (PAs) and the communities that depend on them. The tool uses a three-module framework to understand the conservation and climate context, evaluate implications for management plans, and support monitoring and evaluation. It emphasizes a participatory approach, combining desk-based research with stakeholder workshops to identify 'conservation objects' and the ecosystem services they provide to local livelihoods. By screening existing activities and designing new adaptation measures, the tool aims to increase the resilience of both ecosystems and human communities to climate variability and change.

The manual describes the CRiSTAL Parques tool, which focuses on the links between human communities and protected areas to identify climate risks and design adaptation activities. It outlines a three-module process: understanding the conservation and climate context, evaluating implications for management plans, and supporting monitoring and evaluation. The tool emphasizes participatory methods, such as stakeholder workshops, to identify 'conservation objects' and the ecosystem services they provide to local livelihoods.

Burkina Faso is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and livestock, which employ approximately 80-90% of its workforce. The country faces risks from rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and extreme events like floods and droughts. While the government has established a National Adaptation Plan (2015) and a coordinating body (CONEDD), adaptation efforts remain heavily concentrated in the agricultural sector, with limited integration into health or urban planning. Adaptation is largely driven by international funding and regional projects, with a significant gap in subnational guidance and local government capacity.

The document analyzes the rise of nonviolent resistance globally, noting that while it has historically outperformed violent resistance in achieving major political change, its effectiveness has declined since 2010. It argues that authoritarian regimes may be more fragile than they appear and suggests that non-traditional international support is more influential than direct state assistance for these movements.